1. Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D, FAICP Director, Metropolitan Institute Professor, Urban Affairs & Planning Virginia Tech – Alexandria Center August 30, 2007

2. Front Page December 4, 2004

4. America Grows 200 million in 1968 300 million in 2006 400 million in 2037 500 million in 2068 600 million in 2099 America adds 100 million people faster than any other nation except India and Pakistan Source: Analysis by Arthur C. Nelson.

5. Emerald Coast Grows Faster 700,000 in 2005 900,000 in 2020 1.0 million in 2030 1.3 million in 2060 1.5 million in 2080 1.8 million in 2100 As the US doubles its population the Emerald Coats grows by 2.5 times. Source: Analysis by Arthur C. Nelson.

6. Getting Ahead of the Curve – US US 2000 2030 Population281 million363 million* Housing Units116 million150 million Jobs166 million225 million** *Census projections are always too low by roughly 5-10%. **Woods & Poole Economics, 2006, based on US Bureau of Economic Analysis trends.

7. Getting Ahead – Emerald Coast Florida 2000 2030 Population 620,000 1,000,000 a Housing Units 280,000 450,000 b Jobs c 340,000 630,000 d Job space e 170 million 320 million a.GeoPlan, UF, 1000 Friends of Florida. Figures rounded. b.Estimated proportionate to residential units per person in 2000. c.Space-consuming jobs. d.Adapted from Woods & Poole Economics, 2006. e.Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech.

8. Residential Development Emerald Coast 2000 to 2030 Growth-Related Units 170,000 Replaced Units 160,000* Converted Units 80,000** Total New Units Built 250,000 Percent of 2000 Units 90% Total Housing Construction $90 Billion *Loss rate =~ 20% per decade compounded based on loss-rate analysis of units enumerated in 1990 and 2000 censes. **Half of residential units “lost” are assumed to be replaced in-place.

9. Nonresidential Development Emerald Coast2000 to 2030 NonRes Square Feet 2000 170 million Growth-Related Square Feet 150 million Replaced Square Feet 120 million* Total Square Feet Built 270 million Percent of Space in 2000 160% Total NonRes Construction $35 Billion *Loss rate =~ 20% per decade compounded. (Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech.)

10. Life-Span of Building Space

11. What About ….? Telecommuting? Internet retailing? Emerging technologies? And their effect on future space needs?

12. Telecommuting Promises Higher productivity Reduce traffic congestion Reduce air pollution

13. Telecommuting Reality Cabin fever reduces productivity in long- term after short-term gains. Cabin fever increases trips in am, noon, pm. Cabin fever increases peak pollution emission discharges with “cold” starts. Census “work at home” telecommuting indicator: 1990 = 3.0% 2000 = 3.3%

14. Internet Retail Sales Growth Rate and Share, 1998-2006

15. Internet Retail Sales Growth Rate and Share Figures, 1998-2006 YearRetailInternetShare 1998$1.20T$ 5.5B0.46% 1999$1.49T$12.3B0.83% 2000$1.56T$24.1B1.54% 2001$1.62T$31.0B1.92% 2002$1.67T$41.4B2.48% 2003$1.83T$53.9B3.11% 2004$1.87T$67.3B3.59% 2005$1.95T$80.9B4.14% 2006$2.03T$95.3B4.69% Source: Dept. of Commerce; analysis by Arthur C. Nelson

16. Reality Check Nationally Space Class 1992 2003 %Dif Retail & Service5762 +9% Office, Medical, Ed.8887 -1% Total Glamour Space 145 149 +3% Warehouse & Storage 4535 -23% All Other7563 -16% Non-percentage figures per capita based on Census estimates. Source: Energy Information Administration, Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Surveys for 1992 and 2003.

17. Emerald Coast Construction 2000-2030 Construction Amount Residential$90 Billion Nonresidential$35 Billion Infrastructure$25 Billion Total $150 Billion Source: Arthur C. Nelson, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech

18. How Does It Grow?

19. Northwest Florida 2005-2060 Source: Adapted from 1000 Friends of Florida, Florida 2060

20. Market Analysts Finding Changing Preferences National Association of Realtors National Association of Home Builders Nationally Recognized Market Analysts Urban Land Institute Lend Lease/PriceWaterhouseCoopers Joint Center for Housing Policy at Harvard Golfing Buddies and Taxi Drivers

21. “Traditional” Households on the Wane Household Type 1960 2000 2040 HH with Children 48% 33% 27% Single-Person HH 13% 26% 30%

22. Share of Growth 2000-2040 HH Type2000 2040 Change%Share W/ children 35 41 6 13% W/o children 71 111 40 87% Single-person 26 44 17 38% Figures in millions of households. Source: Adapted and extrapolated from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003).

23. People Turning 65 Each Year Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005.

24. Smart-Growth Preferences Source: National Association of Realtors & Smart Growth America, 2004.

25. Unmet Walkable Demand Residential FormBostonAtlanta % want drivable suburbs 30% 41% % of those who have 85% 95% % want walkable suburbs 40% 29% % of those who have 70% 35% Source: Jonathan Levine, Zoned Out, Resources for the Future, 2006.

26. Another Look at Demand RCL Co. finds one-third of current buyers want smart growth / new urbanism features. a Households relocate on average about once every 6 to 9 years. By 2030 about 40-50+ million households will want smart growth / new urbanism features. Future smart-growth demand more than all new growth-related housing units constructed or converted combined. a Gregg Logan, EPA Large-Production Builders Conference, January 31, 2007.

27. Housing Unit Preference by Type, Surveys Unit Type Share Attached38% Apartments14% Condos, Coops 9%* Townhouses15% Detached62% Small Lot (<7,000 sf)37% Large Lot (>7,000 sf) 25% Source: Low range of surveys reviewed by Arthur C. Nelson, “Planning for a New Era,” Journal of the American Planning Association, Fall 2006. *Toll Brothers shifting product mix to 15% condominium; WSJ 12/06.

28. Looming Large-Lot Oversupply, 2005-2030 Supply Preference Mid-Point Unit Type 2005Change Change Attached 39M 15M 13M Small Lot 12M 40M 22M Large Lot 58M - 23M - 3M Figures in millions of units. Preference change based on low-range of preference survey averages. Mid-point is mid-percentage distribution between 2005 and low-range estimate of preference surveys and supply of occupied units in 2005.

29. The Opportunity The Promise Land

30. The New American Suburb

31. Tear Up a Parking Lot Rebuild Paradise Large, flat and well drained. Major infrastructure in place; upgraded facilities to support redevelopment needed anyway. 4+ lane access, 1+ sides, wide rights-of-way, often capacity for dedicated transit lanes. Single ownership – Kelo problems reduced. Already removed from low-density subdivision use. FARs at 0.15 to 0.25 May more easy to make NIMBYs into YIMBYs. Slide title phrase adapted from Joni Mitchell, Big Yellow Taxi, refrain: “Pave over paradise, put up a parking lot.”

32. The Parking Lot Beckons CalculationStructuresSpace Food, Retail, Office, Service, Warehouse 3.4M 43.0B 1- & 2-Floors 3.1M 38.0B 50+ Years Old in 2025 2.0M 24.3B Assumed Average FAR 0.2 “Ripe” Acres 2.8M Source: Building, space data, Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey 2003

33. Re-Building Capacity CalculationResult Ripe Acres 2.8M Percent Assumed Redeveloped 25% Redeveloped Acres 0.7M 30 dwellings @ 1,500sq.ft. 30 jobs @ 500sq.ft. 1.4FAR Percent Residential Demand 50% +/- Percent Employment Demand 50% +/-

34. Actions Needed Systematically evaluate existing low-intensity commercial areas for their conversion ripeness time-frame. Assess redevelopment parameters, needs. Evaluate feasibility of creating transit corridors out of existing commercial highways. Engage stakeholders now; create “sector” and “form-based code” plans. Explore win-win financial tools to bridge rate-of- return gap.

35. Thank you!