1. © GEO Secretariat THORPEX-TIGGE Overall Concept What? –TIGGE: THORPEX will develop, demonstrate and evaluate a multi- model, multi-analysis and multi national ensemble prediction system, referred to as THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble. Real-time access to global ensemble forecast data required for regional climate predictions and probabilistic forecasting applied to Health, Agriculture or Energy Management. Why? To reduce and mitigate natural disasters, to fully realise the societal and economic benefits of improved weather forecasts, especially in developing and least developed countries When? It was established in May 2003 as a ten-year international atmospheric research and development programme Added Value Early Achievements WE-06-03: TIGGE/THORPEX Cross-cutting areas issue: connecting with several GEO tasks, contributing to GEO societal benefit areas – for health, weather, agriculture and energy Support Multi-Hazard Prediction: Increased support for multi-disciplinary research to translate forecasts into impact prediction Facilitate application: to ensure that the TIGGE forecast archives to general user access is widely promoted and that the additional capability and potential benefits offered by TIGGE are recognised.

2. © GEO Secretariat Participating Members and Organizations WWRP-THORPEX ICSC WMO-IPO/AREP Management The current participants and contributors to TIGGE are: Australia Brazil Canada China Japan Korea USA (NCAR) USA (NRL) USA (NOAA) UK ECMWF France Early Achievements WE-06-03: TIGGE/THORPEX

3. © GEO Secretariat The TIGGE Core Dataset Global ensemble forecasts to around 14 days generated routinely at different centres around the world Outputs collected in near real time and stored in a common format for access by the research community Easy access to long series of data is necessary for applications such as bias correction and the optimal combination of ensembles from different sources

4. © GEO Secretariat Homogeneity of the TIGGE database Homogeneity is paramount for TIGGE to succeed –The more consistent the archive the easier it will be to develop applications There are 3 aspects to homogeneity: –Common terminology –Common data format –Definition of an agreed list of products Data providers must ensure that they provide their data according to the agreed TIGGE standards Archive Centres cannot accept the additional responsibility of transforming data into the right format

5. © GEO Secretariat Calendar (incl. milestones) TIGGE data bases declared open for general user access - expected Quarter 2, 2007. Workshop covering developments in TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM to be held in association with the the European Meteorological Society - Quarter 3 2007. Report to be available by - Quarter 4 2007. Enhance the TIGGE infrastructure to enable real-time access to forecast data to contribute to THORPEX activities related to: International Polar Year field campaigns and Beijing 2008 Olympics Early Achievements WE-06-03: TIGGE/THORPEX Key 2006 Outcomes: -3 archiving centres (CMA, ECWMF, NCAR) in place and ready to operate -11 forecasting centres committed to provide global forecasts to archiving centres -Routine access to forecast data-base soon possible -Ongoing development of a TIGGE LAM (Limited Area Model) ECMWFNCARCMA

6. © GEO Secretariat Output & Deliverables The three TIGGE archive data bases (CMA, NCAR and ECMWF) will be further populated with ensemble global forecasts during the first quarter of 2007. The archives will be declared open to general users once the criteria describing the agreed minimum capability and functionality have been met. It is expected that at least two of the archives will become available for general access by the second Quarter 2007. The TIGGE-LAM expert panel will ensure close collaboration and co- operation between activities at the global and regional scales. Data will be available for research in near real-time and will be provided in real-time to support the Beijing Olympics 2008, the International Polar Year and other relevant GEO Tasks in the areas of Health, Energy and Disaster mitigation). Early Achievements WE-06-03: TIGGE/THORPEX

7. © GEO Secretariat Coordination with User Interface Committee To ensure that opening of the TIGGE forecast archives to general user access is widely promoted and that the additional capability and potential benefits offered by TIGGE-LAM are recognised. TIGGE user workshop, best time frame is the second half 2008, perhaps joined with 3 rd Thorpex science symposium, and GEO to be closely involved in preparation Maintain a list of demonstration projects where TIGGE is used, such as B08 RDP, T-Parc, E-TREC, Winter 2010 Olympics, SWFDP in South-Eastern Africa Early Achievements WE-06-03: TIGGE/THORPEX

8. © GEO Secretariat What Role for TIGGE in the context of the Ministerial Summit? -Not GEO project per se -Credit to be given to THORPEX/WMO and supporting organizations/ countries for initiating & conducting TIGGE phases 1 & 2. What is GEO added value? -PAST & PRESENT GEO supported TIGGE development (enhanced visibility; special session over THORPEX Symposium, Dec 2006). -FUTURE GEO will help the TIGGE database become truly useful to society Data available to 9 GEO areas Broad & easy data access through GEO Portal Awareness of data availability Development of socio-economic applications (Health, Energy, Water, Agriculture, …) Data policy further loosened up?

9. © GEO Secretariat The fact that TIGGE was contributed to GEOSS is already an indication that GEO is working as a process Something to emphasize to Ministers?