1. IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Multi-pollutant / multi-effects: Cost-effectiveness Analysis for the 2 nd NO x Protocol

2. IIASA A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

3. IIASA Emission densities in 1990 SO 2 NO x

4. IIASA Emission densities in 1990 VOC NH 3

5. IIASA Environmental targets In the year 2010, reduce health-relevant excess ozone exposure by 2/3, the area of ecosystems not protected against acidification by 1/2, vegetation-relevant excess ozone exposure by 1/3, excess nitrogen deposition (eutrophication) by 60%. Additional targets for ‘hot-spots’

6. IIASA The model: RAINS Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets Costs OPTIMIZATION

7. IIASA Input assumptions Energy projections: ‘Pre-Kyoto’, –EU: 10 national, 5 DG-XVII ‘Business as usual’, consistent with EU NEC scenarios –Non-EU: National projections via UN reporting Agricultural projections: –Reviewed by Member States

8. IIASA Input data Emission inventories: CORINAIR’90/94 Cost curves: Developed by IIASA, reviewed by countries Atmospheric dispersion characteristics: EMEP model results Critical loads/levels: National data based on common methodology, collected and reviewed by CCE

9. IIASA Emission control options SO 2 Low sulfur coal, coke Low sulfur heavy fuel oil Low sulfur gas oil Limestone injection/Fluidized bed combustion Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) Advanced flue gas desulfurization

10. IIASA Emission control options NO x - Stationary sources Combustion modifications - Low NO x burners, exhaust gas re-circulation, staged combustion, etc. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for large boilers Non-selective catalytic reduction (SNCR) for medium and large boilers Control of industrial process emissions

11. IIASA Emission control options Transport sector Gasoline cars Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards), small carbon canisters Diesel cars Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards) Diesel heavy duty vehicles Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards) Two-stroke engines Oxidation catalysts Off-road machinery Standards equivalent to Euro-III, Euro-IV

12. IIASA Emission control options VOC Stationary sources (1) Dry cleaning: Good housekeeping and adsorption, closed circuit machines Degreasing: Primary measures, carbon adsorption, conveyored degreaser with integrated adsorption, water based systems, low temperature plasma Domestic solvents: Reformulation Non-industrial paint use: Low solvent paints Industrial paint use: Water based-, high solid-, powder- paints, application modifications, adsorption, incineration

13. IIASA Emission control options VOC Stationary sources (2) Production of rubber, paint, ink, etc.: Substitution, solvent plans, ‘end-of-pipe’ Application of glues, adhesives (in industry): Housekeeping, substitution, incineration Printing: Housekeeping, water-based ink, ‘end-of-pipe’ Wood preservation: Double vacuum impregnation, dryer enclosure, ‘end-of-pipe’ Refineries, chemical industry: Regular inspection & maintenance, internal floating covers, vapor recovery Fuel storage and distribution: Internal floating covers, Stage I, Stage II

14. IIASA Emission control options NH 3 Low nitrogen feed - multi-phase, synthetic amino acids Bio-filtration - bio scrubbers Animal house adaptation - improved design, floor modifications, low NH 3 poultry housing, etc. Covered outdoor storage of manure - rigid lids, floating covers Low ammonia application techniques - immediate incorporation, deep and shallow injection, etc. Fertilizers - urea substitution

15. IIASA The starting point (REF) National legislation of countries + for EU Member States: present EU legislation and recent Commission proposals/Council agreements –Auto-Oil 1 –Solvents Directive –Sulfur in liquid fuels Directive –Off-road machinery Directive –IPPC –Heavy duty vehicles post-2005 standards –LCP-II, etc.

16. IIASA Results: The G5/2 scenario

17. IIASA Country results: G5/2

18. IIASA Main measures in EU countries SO 2 : Control of existing boilers, low sulfur fuels NO x : Control of existing boilers, small sources, off-road machinery VOC: Low solvent paints, application of glues and adhesives, Stage II for gasoline stations NH 3 : Urea substitution, low emission animal houses, low ammonia application techniques

19. IIASA Modified ambition levels Acidification

20. IIASA Modified ambition levels Population exposure index

21. IIASA Per-capita costs EU countries, EU Scenario H1

22. IIASA Uncertainty treatment Standard uncertainty analysis is time consuming Potential influence of uncertainties minimized by –Explicit model confidence intervals –Integral functions for environmental exposure –Compensation mechanism for targets –Excluding extreme situations –Use of ‘gap closure’ targets (relative improvements) Identification of potential biases

23. IIASA Potential biases (1) Critical loads could be stricter... –Dynamic effects ignored –Limited spatial resolution Critical levels for vegetation (ozone) could be too strict... –Level 2 approach Population exposure (ozone) … –overestimated in city centers –underestimated in suburbs

24. IIASA Potential biases (2) Constant background ozone …. –ignores decreasing emissions in Europe and N. America –ignores increasing emissions in Asia Emission control costs too high … –‘Pre-Kyoto’ energy projections –Add-on technologies only Emission control potential too small … –Technological progress ignored –No structural changes considered

25. IIASA Sensitivity analyses ‘Post-Kyoto’ energy projections ‘Low NH 3 ’ agriculture ‘High SO 2 ’ energy scenario ‘High NH 3 ’ agriculture

26. IIASA Sensitivity analysis - results Variations in SO 2 reductions

27. IIASA Environmental impacts Days with ozone above WHO guideline (60 ppb) 1990 G5/2 - 2010

28. IIASA Environmental impacts % Ecosystems not protected against acidification 1990 G5/2 - 2010

29. IIASA Environmental impacts % Ecosystems not protected against eutrophication G5/2 - 2010 1990

30. IIASA Uniform or effect-based scenarios?

31. IIASA Documentation Methodology papers Latest databases All scenario analyses, interim reports to ECE and EU On-line model (web version) available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains