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CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego,

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Presentation on theme: "CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego,"— Presentation transcript:

1 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States Masayoshi http://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/ D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States S. Hong, J. Kim Korean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea M. Tokumaru Nagoya University, Japan (Email: bvjackson@ucsd.edu) 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

2 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States Masayoshi http://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/ D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States S. Hong, J. Kim Korean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea M. Tokumaru Nagoya University, Japan (Email: bvjackson@ucsd.edu) 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting

3 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Data Sets/Analyses: Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) mainly from STELab, Japan, Thomson scattering from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) Heliospheric Tomography: 3-D Heliospheric Tomography (a fit to data – a time-dependent heliospheric view from a single observer location) Speeds and densities from the IPS, vector fields from solar surface magnetic field maps Current Applications: A technique used to drive 3D-MHD models – ENLIL Future: Accurate, autonomous, continuously verifiable analyses. Introduction:

4 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) analysis

5 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji DATA STELab IPS array systems IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

6 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data IPS line-of-sight response DATA STELab IPS array systems IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

7 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m 2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011) Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System

8 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Other Current Operating IPS Radio Systems The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m 2 110 MHz array, Russia (summer 2006) Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI). The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m 2 ) operating at a nominal frequency of 326.5 MHz.

9 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data MWA (Western Australia) Other and Potential Future IPS systems (32 tiles are now operating. The full array 128 tiles can obtain some IPS data.) LOFAR (Western Europe) (Some parts of the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.) MEXART (Mexico)KSWC (South Korea) Dedicated IPS 700 m 2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array, Jeju Island Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m 2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico

10 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Sample outward motion over time Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. STELab IPS

11 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data IPS C.A.T. Analysis Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 IPS Density Remote View

12 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data IPS C.A.T. Analysis Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 IPS Density Ecliptic Cut

13 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data IPS C.A.T. Analysis Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 IPS Velocity Ecliptic Cut

14 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation 1.Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field using photospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2.Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3.Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines. Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

15 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data IPS forecasts

16 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data UCSD IPS analysis Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ UCSD Web pages Real-Time Forecasts Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

17 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Forecast Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Fit to CELIAS data

18 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Forecast http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Fit to CELIAS data

19 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast Velocity Density Velocity Density Velocity matched to ACE, density matched to CELIAS Remote velocity from STELab IPS three-site Remote density from STELab IPS g-level

20 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ EarthRadial and Tangential Magnetic Field Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, (in press).

21 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Correlations (from UCSD forecast) Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast B radial B tangential B radial B tangential RTN coordinates

22 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Current Forecasts UCSDKSWC http://ips.ucsd.edu/http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips Fit to CELIASFit to ACE L0

23 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data a comprehensive modeling Toward that Includes 3D-MHD

24 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data WSA-ENLIL-CONE modelIPS Tomography model Time-dependent 3D MHD model inner boundary 21.5 solar radii to adjustable outer boundary Boundary condition from WSA model 3D kinematic solar wind model Tomographically fit to ground-based interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data Solar wind /CME prediction models now operating at the Korean Space Weather Center In operation - RRA KSWC (Korea) - UCSD CASS (USA) - CCMC (USA) 24 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 In operation - RRA KSWC (Korea) - NOAA SWPC (USA) - CCMC (USA) - Met office (United Kingdom) - BOM IPS (Australia) Ground observation of real time IPS - STELab, Nagoya Univ. (Japan) - RRA, KSWC (Korea)

25 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data KSWC Manpower for Model run Total 7 staff working for ENLIL and IPS model run (3 operators designated to model running and forecasting) Forecasting Division Model Operator Lee, J.H. Park, S.R. Yun, J.H. ENLIL and IPS model run / forecast

26 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data KSWC ENLIL model output Generate the output of the WSA-ENLIL-Cone model as an image Archive the output (image and binary), the most recent results are on the web. home rrajeju enlil_images Year(YYYY) Month(MM) Day(DD) Run time (YYYYmmddHH) latest 26 http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/enlil

27 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data KSWC IPS model output - Run the IPS model everyday at 02:00 UT (11:00 KST) Enlarge with animation 27 http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips

28 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data IPS-Derived Boundaries for 3D-MHD Models (Yu, H-S., et al., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 147-152.)

29 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Subject: SOHO/LASCO HALO CME 140418ab (Kevin Schenk) UCMEO 93001 40418 1930/ 40418 61325 81742 1771/ 170// 333// 41208 40418 61233 81318 33118 12036 1112/ 99999 (Frontsided) SOHO/LASCO observed two (2) HALO CMEs in close succession April 18, 2014. The events are first seen in C2 at 13:25 UT as a bright loop in progress over the Southwest. The front expands with extensions to a full HALO CME by 13:36 UT. The event continues into the C3 field beginning 13:30 to 17:42 UT leaving the C3 field of view at 30Rsun in the South. April 18 2014 halo CME

30 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data UCSD IPS Data Fit Model Ecliptic Cuts Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary Density http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

31 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data UCSD IPS Data Fit Model Ecliptic Cuts Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary Density http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html

32 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data bnd.nc coho2bc In-Situ Data UCSD Model UCSD Data ucsd2bc bnd.nc wsa2bc WSA Data WSA Model a3d2bc bnd.nc ENLIL bnd.nc cone2bc  At the KSWC there can be two different models (yellow) that can drive ENLIL (green)  Computational system shares data sets (grey), uses couplers (blue) ENLIL Model Drivers CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014

33 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Better than IPS?

34 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data SMEI Webpages - http://smei.ucsd.edu

35 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data All sky view to within 2º (7.5Rs) of the Sun Cut-away and schematic Characteristics Jackson,B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177-207. Jackson,B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 257–275. SMEI heritage ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager

36 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data ASHI tests with a cooled CCD camera Night sky throughput tests Optic before diamond turning Diamond turned optic Optic stray light tests Buffington, A., et al., 2009, Proc. of SPIE, Vol. 7438, 74380O-1-12, doi: 10.1117/12.825362 Jackson, B.V. et al., 2014, Space Weather Workshop, NOAA ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager Now “baselined” on NOAA’s DSCOVR follow-on spacecraft

37 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data IPS-ENLIL remotely-sensed analyses: A ground-based technique. Can provide low-resolution velocity and density analysis, and accurate forecasts of time-variable heliospheric structure. The IPS analysis can provide input to 3D-MHD models. Better, and more abundant IPS data, should be available in the near future. Currently both the IPS and ENLIL with cone model inputs can complement one another. In the future higher-resolution autonomous systems are available. Summary:

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