1. Department of Economics The Future of Farming in Iowa The Third Degree Ames, Iowa February 3, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Department of Economics Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings Source: USDA-NASS 1 st : Corn Production Soybean Production Field Crop Value Egg Production Hog Inventory Hog Value on Farm Commercial Hog Slaughter Crop Harvested Area 2 nd :Pig Crop Red Meat Production Total Crop Value 3 rd :Number of Farms 4 th : Net Farm Income Alfalfa Hay Production Steers – 500 Lbs. & Over 5 th :Oat Production Cattle & Calves on Feed 6 th :Heifers – 500 Lbs. & Over 7 th :All Cattle & Calves 8 th : All Hay Production All Sheep & Lambs 10 th : Land in Farms Calf Crop Turkeys Raised

3. Department of Economics Iowa Farms and Farmland Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

4. Department of Economics Age and Farm Values Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

5. Department of Economics Source: Duffy

6. Department of Economics Source: Duffy

7. Department of Economics Source: Duffy

8. Department of Economics Source: Duffy

9. Department of Economics Source: Duffy

10. Department of Economics Handing Off to the Next Generation We have a situation –Decreasing number of farms –Increasing average age and age distribution –Increasing age of land owners –Changing structure of agriculture –Technology that increases continually tightens profit margins All of this makes it difficult for the beginning farmer Source: Duffy

11. Department of Economics Iowa Cattle Operations Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

12. Department of Economics Iowa Hog Operations Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

13. Department of Economics Source: USDA-NASS Crop Shifts

14. Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA 200720082009 Area Planted(mil. acres)93.586.086.5 Yield(bu./acre)150.7153.9165.2 Production(mil. bu.)13,03812,09213,151 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,3041,6241,673 Imports(mil. bu.)201410 Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,36213,72914,834 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,9135,2465,550 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,0493,6774,200 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3381,2761,270 Exports(mil. bu.)2,4371,8582,050 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,73712,05613,070 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,764 Season-Average Price($/bu.)4.204.063.70 Feed Fuel Food

15. Department of Economics Population 2008 2020 2050 (billion) World6.678World7.601World9.393 China1.330China1.431India1.808 India1.148India1.362China1.424 U.S.0.304U.S.0.336U.S.0.420 Indonesia0.238Indonesia0.268Nigeria0.357 Brazil0.192Brazil0.212Indonesia0.313 Pakistan0.168Pakistan0.204Bangladesh0.280 Bangladesh0.154Bangladesh0.190Pakistan0.278 Russia0.141Nigeria0.184Brazil0.228 Nigeria0.138Russia0.132Congo0.189 Japan0.127Mexico0.125Mexico0.148 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

16. Department of Economics Liquid Fuel Usage 200620102015202020252030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)(Percent of 2006 Value) United States20.795%98% 100%105% Canada2.3100% 104%109% Mexico2.171%81%90%95%100% Europe15.792% 95%96% Japan5.288%92%96%92%90% China7.2118%139%168%192%213% India2.789%115%144%159%174% Africa3.0117%120%123%127%130% Central and South America5.7116% 119%125%133% World85.0102%107%113%119%125% Source: Energy Information Administration

17. Department of Economics Biomass Wind Solar Alternative Sources

18. Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

19. Department of Economics Countries Pursuing Biofuels  US  Brazil  Argentina  Colombia  Paraguay  Canada  Uruguay  Mexico  Thailand  New Zealand  South Africa  South Korea  Philippines  Indonesia  Pakistan  China  India  Malaysia  Australia  Japan  EU  Russia  Not a complete list

20. Department of Economics Spectrum of Biofuels Source: NREL, 2006  Grain/Sugar Ethanol  Biodiesel  Green Gasoline/Diesel  Cellulosic Ethanol  Butanol  Pyrolysis Liquids  Syngas Liquids Most Mature Least Mature

21. Department of Economics Source: Liebman

22. Department of Economics Bio-based Market Opportunities Source: Informa Economics, Biobased Multi-Client Study, March 2006

23. Department of Economics Biobased Pathways Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

24. Department of Economics U.S. Crop Planted Area, 1998-2018 Source: FAPRI 2009 Outlook

25. Department of Economics U.S. Crop Prices, 1998-2018 Source: FAPRI 2009 Outlook

26. Department of Economics U.S. Livestock Production, 1998-2018 Source: FAPRI 2009 Outlook

27. Department of Economics U.S. Livestock Prices, 1998-2018 Source: FAPRI 2009 Outlook

28. Department of Economics U.S. Farm Income, 1998-2018 Source: FAPRI 2009 Outlook

29. Department of Economics World Corn Trade, 2000-2018 Source: FAPRI 2009 Outlook

30. Department of Economics World Soybean Trade, 2000-2018 Source: FAPRI 2009 Outlook

31. Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

32. Department of Economics Corn

33. Department of Economics Source: ISU Extension

34. Department of Economics Source: Cassman, U. of Neb.

35. Department of Economics Source: ISU Extension

36. Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/