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Income Shares Source: WDI Database 2012 Kenya. Gini Index Source: WDI Database 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Income Shares Source: WDI Database 2012 Kenya. Gini Index Source: WDI Database 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Income Shares Source: WDI Database 2012 Kenya

2 Gini Index Source: WDI Database 2012

3

4 Wages Source: Breakout Nations, Sharma, 2012

5 Human Capital Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Frontier Market Asset Management, 2009

6 2050 Hindsight Where are we… where were we? Growth Drivers –Human Capital Demographics Education, Innovation, Wages Middle Class –Investment –Government Economic Freedom & Rule of Law Governability and Veto Points –Culture Trust & Behavior 2050 Success and Failure

7 Capital Formation Source: WDI Database 2012

8 Investment Source: McKinsey

9 Savings Source: WDI Database 2012

10 Electricity Losses Source: WDI Database 2012

11 Investment Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

12 2050 Hindsight Where are we… where were we? Growth Drivers –Human Capital Demographics Education, Innovation, Wages Middle Class –Investment –Government Economic Freedom & Rule of Law Governability and Veto Points –Culture Trust & Behavior 2050 Success and Failure

13 Government What is best? Entrepreneurial ChaosRules Bureaucratic Taiwan Chile Hong Kong Singapore Mexico Greece India Russia TurkeyChina Thailand Czech Rep Poland Pakistan Indonesia Philippines JapanItaly U.S.

14 Countries Do Change! Entrepreneurial ChaosRules Bureaucratic Taiwan Chile Hong Kong Singapore Mexico Greece India Turkey China Thailand Czech Rep Poland Pakistan Indonesia Philippines JapanItaly U.S. Russia 1990 2000 1970 1990 Government

15 Heritage Economic Freedom Source: WDI Database 2012

16 (Frontier Countries in Blue) Source: The Heritage Foundation, 2008 BUSINESS FREEDOM Starting a business—procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita), minimum capital (% of income per capita) Obtaining a license—procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita) Closing a business—time (years), cost (% of estate), recovery rate (cents on the dollar) TRADE FREEDOM The trade-weighted average tariff rate Non-tariff barriers: quantity restrictions, price restrictions, regulatory restrictions, investment restrictions, customs restrictions, and direct government intervention FISCAL FREEDOM The top tax rate on individual income and on corporate income Total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP GOVERNMENT SIZE Government spending % of GDP MONETARY FREEDOM The weighted average inflation rate for the most recent three years Price controls INVESTMENT FREEDOM Restrictions in sectors related to national security or real estate Expropriation risk Access to foreign exchange Restrictions on transfers or capital transactions Heritage Foundation – Economic Freedom Rank http://www.heritage.org/index/Explore.aspx

17 (Frontier Countries in Blue) Source: The Heritage Foundation, 2008 FINANCIAL FREEDOM Central Bank Independence Freedom of credit allocation Contract enforcement Presence of private financial institutions Foreign financial institutions not restricted PROPERTY RIGHTS Private property guaranteed by the government There is no corruption or expropriation The court system enforces contracts efficiently and quickly. The justice system punishes those who unlawfully confiscate private property CORRUPTION Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) LABOR FREEDOM Ratio of minimum wage to the average value added per worker Hindrance to hiring additional workers Rigidity of hours Difficulty of firing redundant employees Legally mandated notice period Heritage Foundation – Economic Freedom Rank http://www.heritage.org/index/Explore.aspx

18 Economic Freedom – The Heritage Foundation The Heritage Foundation 2013 (Frontier Markets Blue, Emerging Green) 18

19 Today’s World: Argentina: 26 days to start a business Brazil: 119 days to start a business 2007 2012

20 World Bank Rule of Law & Corruption Source: WDI Database 2012

21 World Bank Governance – Change 2010 versus 2000 Source: WDI Database 2012 SA

22 Government % GDP Source: WDI Database 2012

23 Government Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2013

24 Total Scores Source: WDI Database 2013

25 2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

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