1. The Small States of the South Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan
Small States, Regional Integration and Globalization at the University of Iceland
Dr. Robia charles

2. Agenda Introduction Political Integration
Relations with the EU and NATO
Territorial Conflicts
Economic Integration

3. Introduction

4. South Caucasus: An introduction
Early 1800s
1991
Incorporation into the Russian Empire
First Republic
Union Republics within the USSR
/1921
Independence
Armenia: 9th century BC Kingdom of Urartu
Georgia: 10th century

6. Quick Facts Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Religion 95% Armenian Apostolic
84% Georgian Orthodox, 10% Muslim
60% Shia, 30% Sunni, 3% Orthodox
Language
Armenian
հայերեն լեզուն
Georgian
ქართულ ენაზე
Azeri
Azərbaycan dili
Ethnic groups
98% Armenian, 1.3% Russian
83% Georgian, 7% Azeri, 6% Armenian, 2% Russian
90% Azeri, Lezgin 2.2%, Russian 2%
Population
3 million
4.5 million
9.5 million
Size comparison
Belgium (29,743 km2)
Lithuania (69,700 km2)
Austria (86,600 km2)
Armenia: apricots, brandy, cognac
Azerbaijan: 1848 world’s first oil well, Nobel 1879, 1918 women’s suffrage
Georgia: Wine, Dmanisi

7. Georgia Presidential republic Western integration
Independence from Russia
South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Transit
Black Sea

9. Armenia Presidential republic
Landlocked, transportation and economic isolation
Military and economic dependence on Russia*
Good relations with Iran
Nagorno Karabakh
Turkey

11. Azerbaijan Presidential republic Tenuous alliance with Turkey
Energy supplier
Nagorno Karabakh
Caspian Sea

13. Political integration*
The South Caucasus between Russia and the EU (the Near Abroad)
Rejoining the world as independent states after 1991
Behind on democratic reform EU
European Neighborhood Policy>Eastern Partnership (EaP)*
Bilateral association agreements
Sectoral cooperation
Institution-building programs
Civil society organizations
NATO*

14. Eastern Partnership (eaP)*

15. Relations with the eu and NATO
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Strong desire to join the EU
Strong desire to join NATO
Desire for independence and to have good relations with Russia
Lower desire to join the EU
Little desire to join NATO
EU supports opening the border
A closed border with Turkey, conflict over Nagorno Karabakh impedes integration into NATO and independence from Russia
Lower desire to join the EU
Little desire to join NATO

19. 3 Territorial conflicts*
South Ossetia (population of 55,000)
158,000 displaced
Abkhazia (population of 242,862)
133,000 displaced
Nagorno Karabakh (population of 46,573)
30,000 killed and 1 million displaced

20. Russia-Georgia war (2008)*
Ongoing disagreement since 1991
May 2008: Russia sends troops to Abkhazia
August 2008: Georgia sends troops to South Ossetia
Russia sends troops to border and air strikes South Ossetia
Russian tanks move into Georgia proper
Ceasefire brokered by Sarkozy
Russian troops withdraw and recognizes the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Administrative boundary line (ABL) created with Russian troops on one side and EUMM on the other
Georgia sees this as Russian occupation (20% of Georgian territory)

22. Nagorno Karabakh
IDP az

23. Nagorno Karabakh
1921: Stalin NKAO in Azerbaijani SSR with majority Armenian population
1988: NK seeks to be part of Armenian SSR. Ethnic swap begins. Moscow declares martial law in NKAO
1992: NK declares itself an independent republic. Armenian military begin to take villages
: 30,000 killed, 350,000 Armenian refugees, 600,000 Azeri IDPs
1994: Ceasefire accord signed (Russian mediation).
Minsk Process under the OSCE has failed*

24. The Passenger (short film)
7:40 Stop

28. Turkish-Armenian border (1993)

31. THIS IS D15 AND D16, SHOW 2010, 2011 AND 2012 DATA TOGETHER.

32. Economic integration USSR economy vs. market economies*
Survival in the international economy is based on local niche economies:
Energy in Azerbaijan
Energy transport in Georgia
Manufacturing in Armenia
Commonwealth of Independent States (1991)*
Eurasian Economics Union (2015) = alternative to the EU’s neighborhood policy

33. economies Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan
Inefficient industrial and agricultural sectors
Service sector is 69% of GDP
Oil and gas transport
GDP $16 billion
GDP pc $7,165
WTO member
Manufacturing
Outdated industry sector
Scarce natural resources
GDP $10 billion
GDP pc %7,774
Remittances (21% of GDP)
WTO member
Natural gas and oil
Oil rents is 42% of GDP
GDP $67 billion
GDP pc $17,139
Over $1 billion military budget
WTO consideration
Oil rents are the difference between the value of crude oil production at world prices and total costs of production.

34. Georgia* Trade and economic pact with the EU (2014)
Poor relations with Russia

35. Armenia 3 Stages of economic development since independence
Post-transition progress
Qualitative stagnation
Hopeless stagnation
Russia is the largest economic partner and controls the transport and energy sector*
2 million Armenians in Russia, $1 million in remittances annually
2013 intention to join Eurasian Customs Union

36. Azerbaijan* No intention to join the Eurasian Customs Union
Agricultural sector would be destroyed by cheap products from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
Losing independence over energy policy
Nagorno Karabakh
Russian dominance

37. Geopolitics*

38. Geopolitics South Caucasus energy is perceived as a threat to Russia
Russia supplies Armenia with gas via Georgia
Georgia receives power from the Metsamor nuclear power plant Armenia supplied with Russian uranium that is flown over Georgia
Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan have plans to synchronize their energy grids

39. Connection to the world
Cell phones
Internet and
The past two decades have seen an internationalization of information services including the expansion of cell phone ownership, and computer-based communication through the internet and .
This has promoted the diversification and democratization of information as people are able to communicate their opinions and perspectives on issues, local and global, that impact their lives

45. Robia58@gmail.com www.crrccenters.org
Thank you!