1. Between Democracy and Authoritarianism in Southeast Asia (with reference to Thailand and Myanmar) Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak Professor and Director, The Institute of Security and International Studies Faculty of Political Science Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok Sir Howard Kippenberger Chair for 2015 Centre for Strategic Studies, VUW Prepared for Catalyst/Queenstown 27 July 2015

2. Presentation outline 1. Conceptualising Southeast Asia 2. Themes and trends 3. Survey of domestic landscapes 4. Premises, pitfalls, prospects

3. 1. Conceptualising Southeast Asia  History shapes and geography defines; maps as destiny? Future more like the past  Southeast Asia; South-East Asia; Far East; Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean/ASEAN)  An unnatural region of exceptional diversity and dynamism between mainland and maritime nation- states  A compelling region because of trajectories, critical mass, prospects, hedging v. China and other regions

4. 1. Conceptualising Southeast Asia (cont.)  Southeast Asia’s amidst power shifts and power transitions in a long continuum  US’ debt and dysfunction; EU’s peak/plateau eurozone crisis/Russia  Unraveling of Middle East after Sykes- Picot; post-Arab Spring  Grappling with post-WWII world order, post-Cold War, and world disorder in the 21 st century

6. Asean factsheet (As of 2013) Population: 620 million GDP: US$2.403 trillion Source: World Bank

7. CLMT PopulationGDP Cambodia15,135,16915,238,689,686 Laos6,769,72711,242,526,454 Myanmar53,259,01859,430,000,000 Thailand67,010,502387,252,164,291 Total142,174,416473,163,380,431 Source: World Bank 2013 (Except Myanmar GDP from gms-eoc 2013)

8. Source: World Bank 2013 (Except Yunnan & Guangxi from gms-eoc 2012 and Myanmar GDP from gms-eoc 2013) GMS PopulationGDP Cambodia15,135,16915,238,689,686 Laos6,769,72711,242,526,454 Myanmar53,259,01859,430,000,000 Thailand67,010,502387,252,164,291 Vietnam89,708,900171,390,003,299 Yunnan & Guangxi (approx.) 93,410,000369,820,000,000 Total325.3mn1.015trn

9. 2.Themes and trends  China more dominant in mainland; US still major player in maritime (e.g. pivot and rebalance); Asean divisions/divergences  Japan as maritime power with mainland interest  EU, SK, Australia, India, Russia,NZ?  Incumbent domestic regimes under stress; adjustments or tension/turmoil  Between democracy, democratisation, and authoritarianism (military/civilian)  Internal conflicts and insurgencies  Growth and prosperity models at risk

10. 3. Survey of domestic landscapes  Thailand: coups and crises  A monarchy-centred political order rebuilt and reshaped after 1932-58  A monarchy-military symbiosis  A Cold War fighting machine: monarchy, military and bureaucracy  Victim of its twin successes: communism at bay + development

11. 3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.)  Thailand (cont.): Development and modernisation in 1960s-90s culminated with the rise of abusive and astute Thaksin Shinawatra from new elites in early 21 st century; subjects v. citizens  2006 & 2014 coups: half-baked to ‘all-in’  2014 concentrates power, delegates less, maintains direct control  NCPO junta’s governing structure: interim charter; PM/Cabinet, NLA, NRC, Constitutional- drafting committee (CDC)

12. 3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.)  Thailand (cont.): Reaction and regression in the face of 21 st -century changes and dynamics  International norms, technologies, absence of Cold War, globalisation  Electoral winners not allowed to rule; losers can’t win election; poor opposition  The end of Thailand as we know it  A recalibrated political order is imperative; reconciling monarchy and democracy  Scenarios and prospects

14. 2006

15. 2014

16. 2006

17. 2014

18. 2013/142006

19. 2008

20. 2010

21. 2013/14

25. 3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.)  Myanmar: breakout from August 2011  renewed ethnic conflicts/insurgencies, religious/communal violence between Buddhists and Muslim Rohinya/Bangladeshi  Presidential contest towards elections on 8 th Nov. 2015; ethnic parties to be crucial  Key players: Aung San Suu Kyi, Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, Defence Chief Min Aung Hlaing, President Thein Sein  Elements of compromise and accommodation or backsliding; half-full

26. 2015 – the race & the contenders

27. 3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.)  Malaysia’s growing polarisation; Najib v. Mahathir; Najib/Mahathir v. Anwar; corruption/cronyism (1MDB); Najib outgoing?; longer-term crises  Philippines after Aquino (III)?; building on limited momentum; keep eye on Senator Grace Poe  Singapore’s post-LKY democratic adjustments; maintaining PAP’s dominance  Indonesia under Jokowi; domestic focus and less international statesmanship; maritime development  Vietnam’s domestic challenges and promising growth prospects  Hun Sen’s Cambodia; succession manoeuvres; CNRP’s gains; electoral demo.  Holdouts: Laos and Brunei; Laos under China

28. GDP Growth in Southeast Asia and Selected Asian and Developed Economies (year- on-year percentage changes) 20112012201320142015 Brunei Darusalam 3.40.9-1.85.33.0 Cambodia7.17.37.47.27.3 Indonesia6.56.35.85.25.5 Laos P.D.R.8.07.98.07.47.2 Malaysia5.25.64.75.95.2 Myanmar5.97.38.38.5 Philippines3.76.87.26.26.3 Singapore6.12.53.93.0 Thailand0.16.52.91.04.6 Vietnam6.25.25.45.55.6 ASEAN-10 Average 5.25.65.25.55.6 China9.37.7 7.47.1 India6.64.75.05.66.4 United States1.62.32.2 3.1 Japan-0.51.5 0.90.8 European Union1.7-0.30.21.61.8 World Average3.93.233.63.9 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014.

29. 4. Premises, pitfalls, prospects  Growth and prosperity need focus  Downside risks: no effective security/peace resolution framework (South China Sea, Thai- Cambodian, US-China)  Non-traditional security challenges  Unstable domestic landscapes adversely affect regional prospects  Vulnerabilities to outside (China, EU, US)  Democracy and authoritarianism in SEAsia  Bottom Line: an appealing region and solid hedge for New Zealand amidst global disorder