Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byBridget Leonard Modified over 9 years ago
1
Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Towson University November 18, 2005
2
Target Rate vs. Effective Funds Rate Last Meeting Raised Federal Funds Target Rate to 4.00% Today’s Effective Federal Funds Rate 4.00% Source: Bloomberg
3
Economic Indicators
4
Components of GDP Growth 3Q 2005 Source: BEA Total Goods and Services 3.8%
5
Consumer Price Index vs. Producer Price Index S.A. January 1999-September 2005 CPI October 2005: +0.2% Core: +0.2% PPI October 2005: +0.7% Source: BLS M/M percent change
6
Personal Consumption Expenditures September 2005 Source: BEA PCE September 2005: 0.5% Y/Y percent change
7
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey September 2001-November 2005 Source: Economy.com Rose to 79.9 in November from 74.2 in October
8
Labor Sector
9
Payroll Employment S.A. January 2001-October 2005 Net Change October 2005 +56,000 Source: BLS
10
Unemployment Rate vs. Labor Force Participation Rate January 2004-November 2005 Unemployment Labor Force Participation Source: BLS Current Unemployment: 5.0% Current Labor Force Participation Rate: 66.1%
11
Total Initial Claimants S.A. October 2001-September 2005 Source: BLS Total Jobless Claims September 2005: 257,454
12
Productivity 3 rd Quarter 2005 Percent Change Source: BLS
13
Finance Sector
14
Risk Spread January 2001-November 2005 Interest Rate Source: FRED
15
Term Spread January 2001-November 2005 Interest Rate Source: FRED
16
International Sector
17
Trade and Current Account Deficits RankCountryExports Y-T-D (billions, $US) Imports Y-T-D (billions, $US) Surplus or Deficit (billions, $US) Percent of Total Trade 1Canada$140.4$189.7-$49.319.70% 2Mexico$81.4$114.8-$33.411.70% 3China$25.5$139.9-$114.49.90% 4Japan$40.4$95.6-$55.28.10% 5Federal Republic of Germany $23.2$56.3-$33.14.70% All Countries$603.9$1,073.4-$469.5--------- Trade Deficit YTD: -$469,500,000,000 Deficit as a percentage of 3 rd Quarter GDP 2005: 3.7% Deficit as a percentage of 3 rd Quarter GDP 2004: 5% Source: Census Bureau, BEA
18
Foreign Exchange Rates 11/04/051 Month Ago 1 Year AgoPercent Change 1 Month Percent Change 1 Year Euro0.84550.83910.77620.8%8.91% Yen118.20114.33106.023.4%11.5% Yuan8.08568.09208.2765-0.1%-2.3% Source: FRED
19
Energy Sector
20
Natural Gas vs. Effective Funds Rate Source: FRED, EIA Effective Funds Rate $ per MMBTU
21
Crude Oil vs. Effective Funds Rate Source: FRED, EIA Effective Funds Rate $ per barrel
22
Real Estate Sector
23
Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales Month to Month Percent Change June 2005-September 2005 Source: National Association of Realtors M/M Percent Change
24
Office Vacancy Rates for Select Metropolitan Areas, Mid-Year 2005 Source: Delta Associates Vacancy Rate
25
30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate, Weekly November 10, 2005: 6.36% Percent Source: FRED
26
Retail Sector
27
Retail & Food Services Sale, Y/Y Percent Change January 2001 through October 2005 Source: Dismal.com Y/Y Percent Change
28
Discussion
29
The Committee believes that continuing to address potential inflation at a pace that is likely to be measured is the best course of action at present. Therefore we will raise the target rate twenty five basis points to 4.25 percent. The Committee will respond to any inflationary pressures with appropriate action to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. To be released in a statement shortly following this meeting…
30
Thank You Mileva Cohen Brian Dinterman Thomas Dowling Jessica Fox Chris Goodman Andrew Young Dr. Matthew Chambers - Advisor
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.