1. A Vision Fulfilled Transformative Science, Data Infrastructures and the IPCC Experience Lawrence Buja National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado CAM T341- Jim Hack

2. Climate of the last Millennium Caspar Ammann NCAR/CGD

3. NSF/DOE IPCC Project NCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ES 6-Year Timeline 2002: Climate Model/Data-systems development 2003: Climate Model Control Simulations 2004: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations 2005: Data Postprocessing & Analysis 2006: Scientific Synthesis 2007: Publication Observations of the Earths Climate System Simulations Past, Present Future Climate States Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

5. In recognition and appreciation of the "The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 is to be shared, in two equal parts, between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change." The National Center for Atmospheric Research PCMDI / LLNL for its invaluable contributionto the CCSM3 development, production, and data analysis effort for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. for its invaluable contribution to the CCSM3 development, production, and data analysis effort for the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

6. CDP/ESG: A Vision Fulfilled Pre-2000 Home Grown Data Systems 2000-Present Community Data Portaldataportal.ucar.edu 2000-Present Earth System Grid Initially Cheap $$$ in long term Limited Scale Modest Investment Agile and Right-sized for Many Projects Institutional Scale Large Investment Infrastructure for Large Projects Spans Institutions

7. Distributed Data Infrastrucres have transformed CCSM capabilites CCSM3.0 Release (2004) Source Code, Input data and Documentation So easy that it was almost an afterthought. IPCC AR4 (2005-present) Distributed data services through PCMDI and NCAR Delivered the model data for the IPCC AR 4 (WG 1) Changed the World Ongoing CCWG Research ESG data services have been a huge win for us… Promoted use of data/metadata standards & richer metadata Much cheaper, easier and effective Allows us to reach huge new research/app communities (GIS) “Lets our Scientists do Science”

8. Providing climate scientists with virtual proximity to large simulation results needed for their research Very large distributed data archives  Easy federation of sites  Across the US and around the world “Virtual Datasets” created through subsetting and aggregation Metadata-based search and discovery Web-based and analysis tool access Increased flexibility and robustness Server-side analysis ESG Goal Current ESG Sites http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov Dean Williams, PCMDI

9. Evolving ESG for the future ESG Data System Evolution Central database Centralized curated data archive Time aggregation Distribution by file transport No ESG analysis Shopping-cart-style web portal ESG connection to desktop analysis tools Present Testbed data sharing Federated metadata/portals Unified user interface Quick look server-side analysis with CDAT Location independence Distributed aggregation Manual data sharing/publishing Early 2009 Full data sharing (add to testbed…) Synchronized federation metadata, data Full suite of server-side analysis with CDAT Model/observation integration ESG embedded into desktop productivity tools with CDAT GIS integration Model intercomparison metrics User support, life cycle maintenance 2011 CCSM, AR5, satellite, In situ biogeochemistry, ecosystems ESG Data Archive Terabytes Petabytes CCSM AR4 Dean Williams, PCMDI

10. Briefing on Results : USGS Science Strategy to Support U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision: a 6 month effort U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

11. Climate Change Epochs Attribute sources of historical warming Project range of possible non-mitigated future warming from SRES scenarios Quantify Climate Change Commitment Project adaptation needs under various mitigation scenarios Time-evolving regional climate change on short and long-term timeframes Quantify carbon cycle feedbacks Before IPCC AR4 After Conclusion: With the wide public acceptance of the IPCC AR4 findings, the climate science community is now facing the new challenge of quantifying time evolving regional climate change that human societies will have to adapt to under several possible mitigation scenarios, as well as addressing the size of carbon cycle feedbacks with more comprehensive Earth System Models

12. Geoengineering strategies Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel) High Altitude Sulphur injections Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds Sequestration of CO2 Iron Fertilization,... Phil Rasch NCAR We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out! We are proposing that the implications should be carefully explored.

13. 2: 0.3% 3: 0.3-0.9% 4. Commitment 1. A2 Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance

14. Future Plans The overarching goal is to ensure that CCSM plays a substantial and credible leadership role in climate change science, and makes substantial contributions to national and international coordinated climate change experiments and assessments The current model development timeline anticipates CCSM4 in 2009 in time to participate in the next set of internationally coordinated mitigation scenario experiments in 2010-2011 short term climate change: 30-year climate predictions at higher resolution and a single scenario long term climate change: 300-year climate change simulations at medium resolution and carbon cycle for benchmark mitigation scenarios A next-generation Earth System Model will also be under development during this time period.

15. Lawrence Buja (NCAR) Global General Atm/Ocn Circulation Continental Scale Flow Carbon Cycle + BGC Spinups Regional MJO/MLC Convergence IPCC AR3 1998 IPCC AR4 2004 4TF Sub- Regional Hurricanes IPCC AR5 2010 500TF CCSM Grand Challenge 2010 1PF

16. MSE 3 Climate Topics Summary DOE’s ten-year vision to use exascale computing to revolutionize DOE’s approaches to energy, environmental sustainability and security global challenges. Exascale systems provide and unprecedented opportunity for science to use computation not only as an critical tool along with theory and experiment in understanding the behavior of the fundamental components of nature but also for fundamental discovery and exploration of the behavior of complex systems with billions of components including those involving humans. Download complete MSE 3 Report at http://www.er.doe.gov/ASCR/ProgramDocuments/TownHall.pdf

17. ESG/CDP enabling CCSM Science Mission Lessons Learned Obs data is both very similar and different from model data Don’t let scientists build their data systems on their own! …but don’t let the CS folks do it alone, either Effective Data Infrastructures Require Sustained Investment PCMDI IPCC WG1 Archive Standards can unite communities (GO-ESSP) Keep a tight focus on the community that you serve Effective Collaborations can be huge resource multipliers Looking Forward Globally Federated Distributed Data Portals for IPCC AR5 Build balanced systems! Obs/Compute + Data + Analysis

18. Thanks! Any Questions?