1. INFRASTRUCTURE CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT: principles and Applications David Lapp, P.Eng. David Lapp, P.Eng. Manager, Professional Practice, Engineers Canada Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) City of Castlegar, BC February 4, 2010

2. Adaptation of Infrastructure Risk Tolerance Risk Tolerance Extreme Events Societal Factors Protocols Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Life cycle Adaptive Capacity Infrastructure Deficit Data Operations/Maintenance ADAPTATION Changing Climate Catastrophic Failure

3. Engineering Considerations Current Practice Resilience Often neglected – Designed for extremes Has deficit History of extreme events Everyday plans and procedures in place Professional team in place Uncertainties Climatic factors changed? Risk priority – life/ economy/security Are design extremes relevant? Have Risk tolerance? Do you have the data? Definition of a catastrophic failure ? What to adapt? How to adapt?

4. Design life-appropriate assessment StructuresExpected Lifecycle Houses/ Buildings Retrofit/alterations 15-20 yrs Demolition 50-100 yrs Storm/Sanitary Sewer Base system 100 yrs Major upgrade 50 yrs Components 25 – 50 yrs Dams/ Water Supply Base system 50-100 yrs Refurbishment 20-30 yrs Reconstruction 50 yrs Roads & Bridges Road surface 10 - 20 yrs Bridges 50 - 100 yrs Maintenance annually Resurface concrete 20-25 yrs Reconstruction 50-100 yrs Design life varies Component-based vulnerability assessment Safety / economics / technical There is adaptive capacity because of maintenance & rehabilitation Conversely, poor maintenance and lack of rehabilitation contributes to vulnerability

5. Guiding Principles  The climate is changing  Climate change threatens the ability of engineers to safely and effectively design infrastructure to meet the needs of Canadians  Calls into question current rules and design standards  Design, operation and maintenance practices must adapt  Climate change engineering vulnerability assessment is one tool to aid in the adaptation process

6. The Past IS NOT the Future The Past is the Future Current Trend Un-quantified Risk

7. How do Small Changes Lead to Catastrophic Failure????? Design CapacityDesign Capacity Safety FactorSafety Factor Impact of age on structureImpact of age on structure Impact of unforeseen weatheringImpact of unforeseen weathering Design LoadDesign Load Change of use over timeChange of use over time Severe climate eventSevere climate event Capacity Load Failure Failure

8. Some Observations A small change can have a dramatic impactA small change can have a dramatic impact Design safety margins may not last through the full operational life of an infrastructure systemDesign safety margins may not last through the full operational life of an infrastructure system –Margins may be consumed by day-to-day uses/activities Failure often arises from a combination of eventsFailure often arises from a combination of events –Many of which we do not normally monitor Climate change can affect both the load and capacity of a structureClimate change can affect both the load and capacity of a structure Smaller measures can mitigate risk if we act earlySmaller measures can mitigate risk if we act early –Changes in maintenance practice –Measuring and monitoring

9. More Observations Vulnerability assessment is predictiveVulnerability assessment is predictive We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast informationWe are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast information But how much confidence do we have in the prediction?But how much confidence do we have in the prediction? In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess:In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess: –The likelihood of the event –The level of service disruption Without this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage the issueWithout this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage the issue ⇒ = RISK ASSESSMENT

10. Climate Change Risk Mitigation through Adaptation Flood Climate Change Adaptation

11. Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Mitigation Flood Climate Change Adaptation Engineering Vulnerability Assessment Risk Mitigation

12. More Observations Vulnerability assessment is predictiveVulnerability assessment is predictive We are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast informationWe are contemplating POTENTIAL failure modes based on forecast information But how much confidence do we have in the prediction?But how much confidence do we have in the prediction? In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess:In order to effectively address the issue we need to assess: –The likelihood of the event –The level of service disruption Without this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage the issueWithout this assessment there is insufficient context to properly manage the issue ⇒ = RISK ASSESSMENT

13. Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Partnership between Engineers Canada and Natural Resources CanadaPartnership between Engineers Canada and Natural Resources Canada Oversee a national engineering assessment of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to climate changeOversee a national engineering assessment of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to climate change Facilitate the development of best engineering practices that adapt to climate change impactsFacilitate the development of best engineering practices that adapt to climate change impacts Utilize results to facilitate reviews of infrastructure codes and standardsUtilize results to facilitate reviews of infrastructure codes and standards

14. PIEVC Membership  NRCan  Transport Canada  Environment Canada  Infrastructure Canada  Public Works and Government Services Canada  National Research Council  Alberta Infrastructure and Transportation  NWT Asset Management Division  Government of Newfoundland and Labrador  Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction  Canadian Standards Association  Federation of Canadian Municipalities  Municipality of Portage la Prairie  City of Montreal  Corporation of Delta, BC  City of Calgary  Ontario Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure  Ouranos

15. Infrastructure Categories  Buildings  Roads and Associated Structures  Water Resources  Stormwater and Wastewater Systems

16. PIEVC Engineering Protocol  The Protocol is a step by step process, derived from standard risk management techniques, to assess impacts of climate change on infrastructure  Goal:  Assist infrastructure owners and operators to effectively incorporate climate change adaptation into design, development and decision- making

17. A Five Step Process

18. Seven Case Studies Thermosyphon Foundations Quesnell Bridge Edmonton Vancouver Sewerage Area Portage la Prairie Water Treatment Plant Placentia Water Resources Ottawa Buildings Sudbury Roads & Accessories Water resources systems Storm & wastewater systems Roads & bridges Buildings

19. Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility

20. Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Floods, ice jams, ice build upControl dam structure Floods, ice jams, ice build up, intense rain Intake well & pump DroughtWater source Ice storms, hail, intense rain, tornadoes Power supply, communications, operations staff Recommendations Improve emergency preparedness for extreme events Improve flood protection Planned infrastructure improvements to account for climate change

21. Metro Vancouver: Vancouver Sewerage Area Case Study

22. Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area Recommendations Identify stand by power requirements Emergency response plan Determine if additional effort at sewer separation might be required Further assess flooding potential at wastewater treatment plant Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Intense rainCombined sewer overflows Annual rain volumeCombined sewer overflows Storm surge + sea level change + subsidence Flooding of treatment plant Storm surge + wind/wave actionEffluent discharge; jetty structure

23. Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge Design high water level : 1915 flood

24. Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge Recommendations Design drainage system for increased peak rain Review monitoring / maintenance / operations procedures Material selection/design (e.g. based on new temperatures ranges) Perform sensitivity analyses Review / update climatic data in bridge design code Assess other bridges that would be sensitive to scour; slope instability; wind; softening foundations / settlement Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Flood + peak rainDrainage system overload - serviceability Freeze-thaw, ice accretionWeather surface – increased deterioration Drainage system performance Snow volume / patternSnow clearing increase/decrease

25. Ottawa - Buildings

26. Recommendations Historical or culturally valuable buildings may need a longer time horizon Identify stand by power requirements Further assessment of buildings located on permafrost Vulnerabilities Climate EffectInfrastructure Component Rainfall / humidityBuilding envelope Freeze-thaw cyclesDeterioration of building materials, especially roof membrane, concrete and masonry Temperature / humidity extremesHVAC systems ability to maintain an acceptable indoor environment Snow load / wind / combo changesStructural (e.g. roof)

27. PIEVC Update Progress report on National Engineering Assessment issued in June, 2008 (www.pievc.ca) Contribution Agreement with Natural Resources Canada for Phase III of the PIEVC work in place since mid-April 2009 Any interested parties may use the Protocol at no charge through a license agreement with Engineers Canada – provide results for the national knowledge base

28. PIEVC: Key Directions – 2009-2011 Increase number of case studies (regionally and functionally) Develop and compile national knowledge base Update and refine PIEVC Engineering Protocol – –Module for ROM costing of adaptation alternatives, refine terminology, etc. Focused information dissemination - practitioners, students, educators - nationally and internationally Development and delivery of training workshops

29. Going forward Identify critical infrastructure Human health & safety Life line structures / transportation corridors What damage can we live with / repair (economics) Component design life Incorporate better climate information into planned works (new & upgrades / maintenance)

30. Questions For more information on Engineers Canada and PIEVC please contact: For more information on Engineers Canada and PIEVC please contact: David Lapp, P.Eng. Manager, Professional Practice Engineers Canada 180 Elgin Street, Suite 1100 Ottawa, Ontario K2P 2K3 Tel: 1-613-232-2474 ext 240 david.lapp@engineerscanada.ca www.engineerscanada.ca www.pievc.ca