1. ANALYSIS OF TOURIST FLOWS FROM RUSSIAN FEDERATION TO THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Kirill Furmanov Olga Balaeva Marina Predvoditeleva National Research University Higher School of Economics H igher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 www.hse.ru

2. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 FACTORS, AFFECTING THE NUMBER AND FREQUENCY OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS INTERNATIONALLY photo Visa-free regime/negotiations on visa system simplification; Increasing amount of tour operators and agencies; Development of Russian relative and supporting services; Development of ICT; Increase of the income of Russian householders; Health lifestyle trend; Long holidays; Climate; Interest in getting acquainted with new, different cultures.

3. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 NUMBER OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS TO THE NON-CIS AND EU COUNTRIES (IN THOUSANDS) photo

4. SHARE OF TOURIST TRIPS MADE BY RUSSIAN CITIZENS TO THE NON-CIS COUNTRIES 2000 2010

5. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 GROUPS OF THE EU COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THE SHARE IN THE TOTAL TOURIST FLOW FROM RUSSIA TO THE EU IN 2010 photo The 1st group (≥ 10%) The 2 nd group (4 - 10%) The 3 rd group (< 4%) Finland Germany Italy Spain Bulgaria Cyprus France Greece Czech Republic Austria United Kingdom Netherlands Latvia Lithuania Poland Other EU countries with the share < 1%

6. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (1) photo Data available: annual data on number of tourist trips from Russia to the countries of EU, 2000-2010 (11 observations) -> small sample! Parsimony is crucial! Models used: - Holt model (exponential smoothing with trend), - Box-Jenkins ARIMA

7. FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (2) Our choice: Holt model Reason: non-stability of time series for many countries of destination Empirical evidence: MSE for Holt model is lower for most destinations. In cases when ARIMA performs better, the forecasts obtained by ARIMA and Holt models are essentially similar

8. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 photo Including explanatory variables into ARIMA: consumer price indices for the destination country and for EU area, real money income index in Russia, exchange rates. -> no significant improvement Why? Inappropriateness of aggregate data due to heterogeneity of Russian consumers, CPI is a poor proxy for tourism prices. FORECASTING: DATA & METHODOLOGY (3)

9. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 photo Number of tourist trips from Russia to European Union FORECAST FOR ALL EU COUNTRIES increase by 16% expected (2013 to 2010)

10. FORECASTS FOR THE MOST POPULAR DESTINATIONS (1) FinlandGermany

11. FORECASTS FOR THE MOST POPULAR DESTINATIONS (2) Italy Spain

12. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 photo 2010 Group 1 (Leaders) Group 2 Group 3 2013 Group 1 (Leaders) Group 2 Group 3 2010 VS. 2013 CHANGES BETWEEN THE GROUPS Spain GreeceGreece Some minor changes within groups 2 & 3

13. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH (1) photo LimitationFuture research direction Statistical data of Russian Federation at the national level are used, no regional specifics Analysis of tourist flows from different regions of Russia to particular EU countries Factors subject to statistical measurement only are considered Qualitative analysis No data on seasonalityAnalysis, forecasting and modeling of seasonal flows from Russia to the EU particular countries/countries’ regions

14. Higher School of Economics, Moscow, 2011 LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH (2) photo LimitationFuture research 27 EU countries in focus of the study Analysis of tourist flows of Russian citizens to the EU countries/groups of countries clustered on a certain basis Tourist flows from Russia to the EU countries are considered, no distinguishing features of the EU countries’ particular regions considered Analysis of the tourist flows from Russia to the particular regions of the particular EU countries

15. K. Furmanov: furmach@menja.net O. Balaeva: obalaeva@hse.ru M. Predvoditeleva: mpredvoditeleva@hse.ru Thank you Grazie