1. Prof. Jan Rotmans Pieter Valkering Prof. Anne van der Veen Jörg Krywkow De Maaswerken In collaboration with The case study of the Maaswerken A negotiation model for the Grensmaas project

2. Introduction *The Maaswerken project *Our aims and objectives: interlinked IA-ABM model Conceptual models *Stakeholder behaviour *Integrated River Model *Stakeholder-environment interaction Maaswerken Negotiation Model Conclusions OUTLINE

3. General characteristics: 1. River engineering project 2. Initiation in 1997 3. River length ~150 km 4. Budget ~ 0.5 billion EURO Goals: 1. Flood control 2. Improvement of the navigation route 3. Nature development 4. Gravel extraction A river management strategy: - Deepening and broadening - Lowering the flood plains - Creating side channels - Embankments THE ‘MAASWERKEN’ PROJECT Characteristics

4. THE ‘MAASWERKEN’ PLANNING PROCESS A complex problem Policy maker (national / provincial level) Maaswerken Targets Approach Alternatives Non governmental Stakeholders Alternatives Reactions Environmental Uncertainties:  Different stakeholder perspectives and opinions

5. Develop a combined Integrated Assessment – Agent Based Social Simulation Model to:  Construct integrated scenarios taking into account the influence of stakeholders with multiple interests and different stakeholder perspectives on uncertainty  Understand better stakeholder perspectives and the mechanism of perspective changes  Identify river management strategies that are ‘robust’ and sustainable AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

6. 1. Model of stakeholder behaviour 2. Model of the river environment 3. Concept of stakeholder - environment interaction WHAT ARE THE INGREDIENTS?

7. Belief Uncertainty.. Preferenced River Management strategy Agen t STAKEHOLDER AS A COGNITIVE AGENT Norms Perception of environment Perception of stakeholders Goals safety nature hindrance costs

8. Discharge Rec_time(Q high ) Exc_time(Q regular ) Seasonal discharge Hydraulics Stage - discharge Floods Recurrence time of floods Recurrence times of flood damage Nature Nature area Ecosystem distribution Drought damage (qualitative) Geographic information DEM Land use type Sediment layers Costs Net monetary costs Hindrance Gravel extraction amount Inundation Inundation durations Groundwater Change in GLG, GHG Load Strategy Hydraulic schematization Agriculture Area of expropriation Crop depression factors Average monthly discharges Yearly discharge peaks Strategy CONCEPTUAL INTEGRATED RIVER MODEL Stakeholder goals

9. STAKEHOLDER ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION 1 Stakeholders - Agent Based Social Simulation Model River environment - Integrated River Model

10. Initial world Evaluation: acceptance yes/no Stakeholder expectations Compare to goals Belief up-date Goal update Strategy proposal Negotiation operational level STAKEHOLDER ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION 2 ABM Surprises (floods) New insights River Management Strategy IRM State change, norm change strategic level Implementation of measures New state of the world NORMCHANGE

11. MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 1 What it is: A tool / model that can be used to simulate the Maaswerken negotiation process with stakeholders Main purpose: Elicitation of stakeholder goals and beliefs as a dynamic process Input: * River engineering strategy * A formal representation of stakeholder goals and perspectives on uncertainty Output: * Possible values for decision-making criteria * Stakeholder satisfaction

12. MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 2 Representation of stakeholder goals Satisfaction level curves

13. MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 3 Representation of stakeholder perspectives on uncertainty Uncertain model parameters Climate change scenario: Current, low, middle, high Morphology: low erosion, high erosion, sand dunes and gravel banks Fraction high vegetation growth (hydraulic roughness) Cost parameters: Extraction costs, gravel density,..

14. MAASWERKEN NEGOTIATION MODEL 4 Impression of results

15. CONCLUSIONS Starting from a descriptive viewpoint, aiming to develop a computer simulation model describing the interacting stakeholder - river system.. We developed a negotiation model that allows stakeholder to display their goals and perspectives on uncertainty on the basis of concept of cognitive agents Work is still underway of incorporating this knowledge in a formal cognitive agent description with Neg-O-net By simulating the Maaswerken negotiation process with stakeholders we will: Elicit stakeholder goals and perspectives on uncertainty as a dynamic process Be able to develop integrated scenarios for river management including possible stakeholder influence in defining river management strategies However, drastically different river management strategies result from norm changes at the strategic level and these can not be simulated by investiging negotiation at the operational level only.