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Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429
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2 Disclaimer RetireInvest Pty Limited (ABN 23 001 774 125) holds Australian Financial Services Licence Number 238429 and is licensed to provide financial product advice and deal in financial products such as: deposit and payment products, derivatives, life products, managed investment schemes including investor directed portfolio services, securities, superannuation, Retirement Savings Accounts. The information presented in this seminar is current as at March 2008 and may be subject to change. Performance figures may have been calculated before fees and taxes. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. It is of a general nature only and neither represents nor is intended to be specific advice on any particular matter. RetireInvest strongly suggests that no person should act specifically on the basis of the information contained herein but should obtain appropriate professional advice based on their own circumstances.
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Taking a look at history
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4 Taking a look at history - Recovery from market crises Source: Iress
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5 Recovery from market crises Source: Iress
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6 Recovery from market crises Source: Iress
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Volatility over time
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8 Short term volatility vs long term consistency – Australian Shares Source: S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index, Iress Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
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9 Short term volatility vs long term consistency – US Shares Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Source: Dow Jones, Iress
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Strategies for investing – Time, diversification, financial planning strategies
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11 Strategies The two greatest strategies to reduce risk of a negative outcome include: 1.Time – Time in the market reduces the chance of a negative outcome 2.Diversification – spreading investments across multiple asset classes helps reduce risk
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12 Time in the market Time In Versus Timing How missing the best trading days can significantly affect returns. All Ordinaries Accumulation Index - 01/01/1993 to 21/01/2008 Source: Iress
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13 Strategies - Timing the market Time In Versus Timing Missing the best trading days can significantly affect returns. All Ordinaries Accumulation Index 01/01/1993 to 21/01/2008 Source: Iress
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14 Asset class returns - Historical Timeframe: 01/01/83 - 31/12/2007 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBSA Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87) Source: RBA, IRESS
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15 Asset class performance – past 3 years Timeframe: 01/01/83 - 31/12/2007 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBSA Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87) Source: RBA, IRESS
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16 Why diversify? – every asset class has it’s day in the sun Timeframe: 01/01/83 - 31/12/2007 Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), International Fixed Interest: Citigroup WGBI Ex AUD Hedged, Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBSA Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87) Source: RBA, IRESS
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17 Diversification within asset sectors *Gross performance returns are before fees and taxes. Performance as at 31 Jan 08 Source: Iress, INGIM
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18 Financial planning strategies Given the recent market volatility, the following are some possible options for further discussion: Re-visit your Investor profile —Risk Profile Re-balance your portfolio —Growth vs Defensive to Strategic Asset Allocation Set up a Regular Investment Plan —Dollar Cost Averaging Pension Drawdowns —Use of defensive asset classes for funding pension income
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Conclusion – 8 thoughts for 2008
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20 Conclusion Eight thoughts for 2008 The major economic, market and investment themes in 2008 are as follows: 1. Slower world economic growth 2. Emerging economies to outperform 3. Monetary policy easing 4. Inflationary pressures rising 5. US landing ‘hard to soft’ 6. Sub-prime and credit market concerns 7. Australian economy still looking good 8. Near-term caution is recommended And remember, in periods of market volatility – it’s the long term that counts
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Thank you
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