1. Science for the MDGs: The need for new policy development tools and methods Hans R. Herren www.millennium-institute.org hh@millennium-institute.org AAAS Symposium, February 2008hh@millennium-institute.org You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

2. The Millennium Institute is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA. Established in 1983 to promote system thinking and long- term integrated approaches to decision making in national governments, civil society, universities, foundations and the public. MI has assisted many countries analyze strategic options to achieve sustainable development goals; trained staff of governments, agencies, and NGOs in the application of systemic analysis; and helped General Motors design its program in many emerging markets Who are we? You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

3. Formulation and general agreement on MDGs in 2000 Comprehensive Development Framework and PRSP Response to global warming, energy and environmental degradation issues, good governance, Commission for Africa report, Paris Declaration on harmonization… Call for new development planning support tools/methods: Why? So far mixed results in meeting medium term MDGs targets Difficulties in developing realistic PRSPs Lacking dialogue among the development stakeholder Missing input regarding value for sustainable development of S & T investments You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

4. Call for new development planning support tools/methods: Why? You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein The Paris Declaration, calling: for Changed Behavior of donors and governments i.e., Change in behavior & operations Change in policies & procedures Change in processes & systems to build a new form of Development Partnership - by changing deeply rooted patterns of Institutional behavior To change donor behavior from Disbursement Imperative to Aid Effectiveness Imperative For Government to have Leadership on external assistance

5. Formulation and general agreement on MDGs in 2000 Comprehensive Development Framework and PRSP Response to global warming, energy and environmental degradation issues, good governance, Commission for Africa report, Paris Declaration on harmonization… Call for new development planning support tools/methods: Why? So far mixed results in meeting medium term MDGs targets Difficulties in developing realistic PRSPs Difficulties in integrating the economy, society and the environment into a self reinforcing, single framework Lacking dialogue among the development stakeholder Missing input regarding value for sustainable development of S & T investments You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

6. Also a need to address and cater for: Long term holistic vision (Economy+Society+Environment Country ownership (public/private and civil society) Country led partnership Country led sustainable development agenda Focus on results (impact & consequences of policy choices) Monitoring and evaluation of progress and impact Call for new development planning support tools/methods: Why? You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

7. Getting the System right (capacity & accountability /governance issues) Peace and Security (prevention / management of conflicts and post conflicts negotiations Leaving no One Out ( T21 for dialogue; rebuilding countries) Going for Growth (& development / poverty reduction) Leveraging Key scientific and technological advances Applying Aid to create system-wide synergies (finding the entry points) Identify and Avoid key unintended consequences of development projects More Trade & Fairer Trade (analyses of opportunities and costs…..) ….and How?…. And with What means? Call for new development planning support tools/methods: For what? You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

8. Development and dissemination of advanced analytical tools and methods in support of prospective planning dialogues and M&E at community, national, global, agency levels; Crafting and implementing capacity development for a broad cross-section of partners in sustainable development (system thinking & handling) using all modern communication means; Building a network of supporters and partners across the globe to inspire, promote, endow and implement rational, integrated and holistic planning; Applying the lessons learned towards better efficiency of our activities to serve Call for new development planning support tools/methods: How? You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

9. Understanding Systems…..removing a problem, You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

10. ..may create feedbacks & Understanding Systems… You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

11. unintended consequence Understanding Systems… You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

12. unintended consequence Understanding Systems… You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

13. Help understand how things work in the real world Help understand why certain results occur Help see what is likely to happen in the future under different development policies Help inform strategic and other decisions Help our limited mental ability to deal with more than 3 or 4 variables simultaneously Why use models ? You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

14. The Three Areas of Integration Threshold 21 You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

15. Population Labor Education Health Poverty Infrastr ucture Production Households Investment Government Technology ROW Land Water Minerals Energy Sustain ability Emissions SocietyEconomy Environment Water Demand Secondary Education Water Supply Primary Education Energy Supply Energy Demand Industry Agriculture Services Revenue Expenditure Financing Debt Births Population Deaths T21 Architecture You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

16. The Key Connections in T21 You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

17. Addresses the WHOLE system, including, economic, social and environmental factors Takes account of interactions across the WHOLE system Generates long-term scenarios to show effects over time Helps users analyze and understand how national systems function T 21 Broader Systemic Model: You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

18. System dynamics methodology Built to reflect observed real world relations in country of application Analyzes cross-sector links and feedback loops Based on wide range of existing sector models and analyses Composed of three main areas Economic -- based on SAM, key market balances, and production over time Social -- based on current dynamics in population, health, HIV/AIDS, education Environmental -- based on country specific issues and information Adapted to country specific data, issues, objectives, actual relations Calibrated against history and reality checks Easy to use interface to simulate hundreds of options, based on 12,000 equations and variables on a laptop in less than 15 seconds Easy to compare results of different options on the roadmaps generated Builds local capacity to integrate T21 into national planning Threshold 21 approach You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

19. For Example: The MDG Challenges Success within the target sectors Interaction among the target sectors Impacts beyond the target sectors Impacts over time Sustaining and building on success so the programs continue beyond 2015 Increasing capacity for self-sustaining programs You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

20. under five population 4 M 3 M 2 M 19901995200020052010201520202025 Time (Year) under five population : BasePerson under five population : HealthPerson You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein T21 Shows results of feedback Results compared

21. T21 Shows cross-sector feedback under five population 4 M 3 M 2 M 19901995200020052010201520202025 Time (Year) under five population : BasePerson under five population : Health and EducationPerson Broader systemic results You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

22. T21 Fully integrated results gdp in usd2000 20 B 10 B 0 19901995200020052010201520202025 Time (Year) gdp in usd2000 : BaseUSD2000/Year gdp in usd2000 : AllUSD2000/Year You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein Broader systemic results

23. T21s Strategic Capacity Generates continuous long-term scenarios that provide a better framework for strategic planning Demonstrates full range of effects and impacts of different policies and assumptions on overall sustainability Compares the results of different policy options graphically or in tables for economic, social, and environmental results Helps identify ways to mitigate possible negative side-effects Can help identify risks stemming from potential crises Monitors the MDGs and other indicators It can show the costs and benefits of different approaches over time You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

24. MIs Suggestions for T21 Country X implementation Partners: Government, Universities, Civil Society Organizations, Private Sector Capacity Development for SD and Modeling: Development Executive course: SD, case studies, T21. Five days, 15 to 30 participants from Gov, Private and Public sectors. Core modeling team course. Three modules 6 weeks (SD theory, T21 model, sub-sector building). Building of full T21 Country X with sub-sectors of special interest (customization) You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

25. MI around the World T 21 Countries MI Partner MI Head Office M 3 Countries MEG Countries You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

26. MIs integrated dynamic models have been vital for GMs sales forecasts Paul Ballew, GM MIs long-term, integrated perspective is essential Pablo Guerrero, World Bank MIs T21 analytical tool is essential for effective national development strategies Ed Cain, Carter Center Fascinating! David Cohen, Counterparts International If only we had known such a tool existed…. Chorus of planning experts from 11 countries in Southern Africa We need to use this tool at the Headquarters, in our embassies and help our country partner acquire it… Dutch Ambassador Ton Boon von Ochsen I want that T 21 planning team in my office… Président Amadou T Touré, Mali It has been my dream since ten years to get the the POIJ departments to work together…now its happening with T21; With T21 I can see team building and networking across the ministries and government agencies and effective communication Wesley Hugh, Director Planning office Jamaica What our partners and clients are saying … You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein

27. Thank You for Your Attention Questions and comments are welcome www.millennium-institute.org hh@millennium-institute.orghh@millennium-institute.org You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A. Einstein