1. Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook Matt Hourihan October 9, 2013 for the Science Diplomats Club AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

5. Emergent Budget Tendencies Discretionary spending tends to be constrained… Early 1980s: nondefense constraints under Reagan Late 1980s/early 1990s: spending caps 2011 Budget Control Act caps While mandatory spending tends to grow Health care costs Expanding beneficiaries, aging population Medicare Part D, Affordable Care Act… …versus failed efforts at control/constraint/reform And, of course, anti-tax politics

7. *Keep in mind… Department of Defense technology development activities have declined a little more than everything else

9. Enter FY 2014: Admin R&D Priorities Clear shift from D to R And from Defense to Nondefense Science + Innovation COMPETES Agencies Advanced Manufacturing Translational Medicine Clean Energy + Environment Defense technology cuts STEM education

11. The biggie for R&D: Returning discretionary spending to pre- sequester levels Every agency would receive major increases above FY13

12. Approps: What Have We Learned? Everybody still mostly likes science and innovation funding… Though to varying degrees But again, fiscal politics trumps all

15. Current Politics: The Pong Model? Cut nondefense spending! Raise revenues! The science and innovation budget Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…!

16. Some concluding thoughts… If increasing aggregate R&D is the goal… Should the sci & innovation community take broader fiscal view? Science as % of discretionary? Discretionary as % of total? Social spending is popular. Responsible taxation is unpopular How to grapple with tradeoffs If were to ask more of the taxpayer: Should science programs more directly tie to public outcomes? Temporal problem: allocative spending and tax policy is about past & present, science and innovation spending is about future The alternative: Glide along happy with what weve got?

17. Notes about shutdown… Intramural vs. extramural vs. contractors i.e. ARS/NIH vs. universities vs. JPL Impacts: radio telescopes; Antarctic station; meetings and symposia Clock is ticking for some big-ticket items A transient event, one hopes

18. For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 www.aaas.org/spp/rd/