1. Today Project update Market demand forecasting Segmentation Case studies

3. Market Forecasting Demand / size of market/ consumption/ market forecast.. How big is the market demand ? NOT demand for your brand

4. Estimating Market Demand Historical Data Local Production Plus Imports Expert Opinion Irwin/McGraw-Hill Analogy 8-10

5. Market Forecast Data & judgement Ultimately try to quantify Current size & forecast Per capita consumption best basis Volume= per capita x population Market value = volume x average price Usually market forecast is in volume

6. Market Forecast- historical data Last 5 years, on average 100k new cars bought in Austria p.a UK consumers eat 15 kg of chicken p.a. US consumers bought 900k espresso machines in 2002

7. Market forecast- analogy Demand is proportional to some factor (eg. GDP for consumer durables) Demand for office air conditioning follows development of fax machines US and Japan GDP / capita same but car penetration 800 / 1000 households in US versus 550 in Japan.. Why ? Careful of using single factors in forecast

8. Market forecast- analogy US and Japan GDP / capita same but car penetration 800 / 1000 households in US versus 550 in Japan.. Why ? Careful of using single factors in forecast

9. Factors influencing Market demand Income ( GDP ) Relative price.. Price of category versus prices in substitute cagegory Advertising expenditure in this market ( total compared to other categories) Culture Availability ( distribution) Other eg. climate

10. Market Forecast –Soft drinks Income Price Relative price v. other beverages Availability Climate Advertising expenditure in total market Cultural factors ( water, wine, beer !)

13. Market Forecasting Ready to eat breakfast cereals in China Frozen vegetables in Brasil Cider in Austria

14. Market outlook Market attractiveness model Competitive intensity outlook Company capability Attractiveness Segment profitability

16. Market segmentation- why ? Companies divide large heterogeneous markets into smaller segments that can be reached more efficiently with products & services that match consumers needs. Consumers have different needs, perceptions, behaviour- suppliers should seek to meet these to deliver improved consumer satisfaction Companies can develop & manage the marketing mix more efficiently Commodities not segmented, all other markets can be segmented!

17. Demographic Psychographic Behaviouristic Geographic BASES FOR SEGMENTING MARKETS

18. Market segmentation Geographic segmentation. –Very common method –Based upon language / cultural/climate –Eg. Foods, air conditioning, magazines –Urban / rural markets Companies very often organised on national bases

19. Market segmentation- Demographic Age- toys,vitamins, comics Life cycle-18-30, Saga,cruises, Gender- clothes, cosmetics, magazines Income- luxury brands, economy brands Social class- Butlins, Center Parcs Occupation- business magazines

20. Market segmentation- Psychographic Lifestyle eg Y&R Personality eg Honda scooters aimed at young at heart Hobbies- golfing, scateboarding, gliding, chess Nestle – energetic males & depressive chocolate lovers

21. Mindset types as a basis for consumer segmentation-Nokia

22. GEODEMOGRAPHICS A combination of geographic, demographic and lifestyle information that identifies target market locations by several behavioural similarities

23. Market segmentation-behaviorial Divides market into groups based upon their knowledge, attitudes or responses to a product Occasions- when buying or using FJ promoted outside breakfast usage Mothers Day for cards, flowers Benefit- find the benefits that consumers are looking for eg.toothpaste Usage rate- heavy, light buyers eg beer, frequent flyers

24. Segmentation- Segments V Niche Segment bigger Segments have several competitors SUV is a segment; Land Rover, Suzuki, Shogun all other products in this segment

25. Segmentation- TCCC Mass- Coca- Cola Product variety- Fanta, Sprite Target marketing – Diet Coke –Cherry Coke –Caffeine free –Lemon coke –Glass / PET / Dispensed/Cans

26. Manner brands / product categories