1. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scanning for Planning Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant SLA 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market Consultant

2. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Trend Spotting started here for OCLC

3. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Why Do this? Western Union Personal computer Amazoogle, YaBay, Skating where the puck will be

4. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Traditional Planning Extrapolates from the past/present Focus is on industry situation Solving current problems No holistic view of external factors

5. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Futuring: 4 Questions Can we predict the future? Can we know the future? Can we control the future? Can we influence the future? Sometimes NO YES

6. OCLC Online Computer Library Center The Four Types of Change ContinuousDiscontinuous Trends Aging Economic growth Events Fall of Berlin Wall September 11 Improvements Market share Fewer defects Transformations New leadership New vision Given Chosen

7. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Prediction and Forecasting Prediction Physical evidence Strong assumptions Unitary phenomenon Higher quality inferences Forecasting Intangible evidence Weak assumptions Multiple possibilities Lower quality inferences

8. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Short-term horizonLong-term horizon Single domainMany domains Few factorsMany factors Focus on continuityFocus on discontinuity Hide uncertaintyReveal uncertainty Single forecastAlternative forecasts Quantitative techniquesQualitative techniques Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting Forecasts - Two Approaches

9. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scenarios enhance creativity in visioning Scanning for trends Identify key forces Scenario matrix narratives Vision Mission Goals Likely and alternative futuresPreferred Futures Generation of new strategies Evaluation of new and existing strategies Strategic priorities and plan of action Diagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com Are strategies robust? Do they work in most or all scenarios? Do strategies align with vision, mission and goals?

10. OCLC Online Computer Library Center What is Environmental Scanning? Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions. Kendra S Albright, Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success. Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.

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12. Content of an Environmental Scan STEEP Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes PEST(LE) Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental) SETRLL Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries Whatever!

13. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Trend Spotting Its about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding

14. OCLC Online Computer Library Center The 3 Main Challenges Management and corporate culture Theyre just not that into trends Resources Time, funds, attention Understanding and applying trends Thinking BIG and…so what?

15. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Management and corporate culture

16. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Resources Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares Im retiring…

17. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Understanding and Applying Trends Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL

18. OCLC Online Computer Library Center The Amazoogle* Effect Comprehensive Accessible Immediate gratification Market-of-One *Coined by Lorcan Dempsey, OCLC VP of Research

19. OCLC Online Computer Library Center Why havent you ever used the online library Web site?

20. OCLC Online Computer Library Center …is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines? Q1205

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28. The Internet of Things spimes & blogjets

29. OCLC Online Computer Library Center I cant understand why people are frightened of new ideas. Im frightened of the old ones. John Cage