1. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Population Skills Base Migration Labour Force by Location Spatial Analysis Labour Force by Residence Resident Population by Location Housing Requirements by Location XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Commuting Patterns

2. Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development David Mell, NERIP TWRI Modelling and Forecasting Workshop 28 January 2008

3. Towards modelling frameworks for sustainable development – a specific case  Starting point is the framework used for the RSS  Provides linkages between The economy The size of the resident population and its housing requirement  Original framework was not transparent Originators (cebr) provided outputs only Framework has been inferred

4. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario The growth assumptions will vary from one sector to another. Applied to the current economy, the assumptions create a future economic scenario. The scenario is simply an expression of the mix of the economy in future years.

5. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Productivity = GVA/FTE. The productivity assumptions represent views about how each sector’s productivity will change over time. In conjunction with the economic scenario, the productivity assumptions determine the size of the labour force in each sector. Labour Force Required by Sector

6. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Sector skills assumptions represent the profiles of skills required in each sector. At its simplest this is % with Level 1, % with Level 2,… etc. Together with the Labour Force requirement the sector skills assumption generates a view of the labour force required by Skills levels

7. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Spatial Analysis Labour Force by Location The Spatial Analysis is based on notions of the likelihood of sectors being located in particular places. Typically this involves the use of location quotients. Spatial analysis provides a view of where the labour force will be located.

8. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Labour Force by Location Spatial Analysis Commuting Patterns Labour Force by Residence Commuting patterns provide the link between where people work and where they live.

9. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Population Skills Base Labour Force by Location Spatial Analysis Labour Force by Residence Migration Migration provides a balancing mechanism between the labour force that is required and that which can be provided from the regional population. Commuting Patterns

10. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Population Skills Base Migration Labour Force by Location Spatial Analysis Labour Force by Residence Resident Population by Location The location of the labour force by residence, allied to migration effects are primary determinants of where the resident population lives. Commuting Patterns

11. A Modelling Framework GVA Growth Assumptions Economic Scenario Productivity Assumptions Labour Force Required by Sector Sector Skills Assumptions Labour Force Required by Skills Levels Population Skills Base Migration Labour Force by Location Spatial Analysis Labour Force by Residence Resident Population by Location Housing Requirements by Location The size of the resident population determines the amount of housing required by location. Commuting Patterns

12. Comments on this framework and modelling generally  It is a modelling framework not a model Provides a way of conceptualising connections in the real world and promotes shared understanding Helps “policy wonks” and “technical nerds” communicate Parts may be implemented as actual models  Framework and models are purposeful How pictures are drawn and models constructed depends on what we are trying to do Demography: planning housing vs education delivery Framework might have new boxes and different connections depending on what we are trying to do  Frameworks like this are our best hope for integrating LEAs to a regional strategy