1. A – Migration Introduction
Unit 3 People and Places
A – Migration
Introduction

2. What is the unit about?
How does migration affect the rate of population change?
This where we will start today – to do this we need to be able to understand terms like birth rate, death rate, natural change and how these change over time and as countries develop.
We then go onto consider how migration – both in-migration and out-migration affect what is happening to a country
Then ….

3. …..we will look at …
Where do people leave from and where do they go to?
As an example we use the UK – where did those who left go? Where did those who arrived come from? What about those who moved from one place to another inside the country? [remember the start of the Welsh coal fields, and then later on. What happened?]
After that, what are the reason for people to migrate? Is it more likely to leave a bad environment or go to a good one? We look examples of both occurring.
When people migrate within countries, what the effects on the places they leave and the places they go to?

4. A – Migration 1 – What makes population change? Textbook p118 - p119
Unit 3 People and Places
A – Migration
1 – What makes population change?
Textbook p118 - p119

5. Defining terms and raising issues
Crude birth rate The number of births in a year per 1000 of the total population.
For example, if a country has a population of one million and 15,000 babies were born last year, we divide both the 1,500 and 100,000 by 100 to obtain the rate per Thus the Crude Birth Rate is 15 per 1000.
The Crude Birth Rate is called "crude" because it does not take into account age or sex differences among the population. In our hypothetical country, for every 1000 people it is likely is that around 500 are men and about 500 are women. Only a certain percentage of the women are capable of giving birth in that year. Thus we don’t know whether in truth a few women are having a lot of babies or if the country has a young profile, then in fact fertile women may be having only one or 2 children each.
That is why it crude – but from now own we will refer to it as the Birth Rate.

6. Defining terms and raising issues
Similarly crude death rate is the number of deaths in a year per 1000 of the total population. It again takes no account of who is dying or why, hence the crude, but from now on we will refer to just the Death Rate
Natural increase is the growth in population produced when the crude birth rate exceeds the crude death rate.

7. What makes a population change?
Population change can be population increase or population decrease and depends on 3 things
1.Birth rate, 2.Death rate and 3.Migration rate
1. Birth rate is number of live births per 1000 of the population per year
Which continent has the highest birth rate? What does this mean? Africa – each family has a lot of children – implies also that there are fewer people who are too old to have children.
Any surprises? E.g. S Africa – fewer children than you might expect – other reasonable ideas

8. UN World Population statistics
Birth rate
A high birth rate can contribute to higher population growth - the lilac ones at the back –
UN World Population statistics

9. What contributes to a high birth rate?
Low in MEDC
Children cost lots - pensions
High in LEDC
Little birth control. Large families the norm
Political
reasons
Low in MEDC
Government financed birth control
Social
reasons
High in LEDC
Children wanted for work
To look after the old
Top L with Middle M with Bottom R
Mid L with Bottom M with top R
etc
Low in MEDC
Many family planning methods; 2-3 children the norm
High in LEDC Family planning against religion, not supported by government
Economic
reasons

10. 2 Death rates Low death rates also contribute to population growth
Lowering death rates are due to improved health care.
Primary health care in particular protects against people becoming ill in the first place.
Primary health care includes immunisation, clean water and adequate sanitation
Secondary health care is provided by hospitals and the application of medicines and procedures once things have gone wrong.

11. What is population change?
2. Death rate is the number of deaths per 1000 of the population per year
Which has continent has the highest death rate? In some places this is actually rising – any ideas why?
Do you see anything that you would not expect in the overall pattern? Any ideas? South America and parts of Africa has lower death rate that Europe – odd isn’t it? Certainly not what I expected. And there is no mention of this in any textbook directly but a handy little diagram might explain it a bit – a few slides on

12. What is population change?
The Birth rate – death rate = natural change rate
As you can see a number of places have a natural decrease, not a natural increase
What does the red area mean? Can you see any problems heading their way? – Natural rate decreasing. - too many old and no-one to take care of them – not enough of working age to be able to pay for those not working. (children & retired)
What is the effect of being in a blue area? Population is growing fast

13. One useful measurement
The rate of natural change is
Birth rate ÷ death rate
But before we see what this means – I want to make under standing it a bit easier

14. Cars in and out of a car park
Between 9 and 10 in the morning, 10 arrive but 5 leave so the rate of change is
Arrivals ÷ departures
10/5 = 2 is the rate of change
So what does the 2 tell you? And over time to number of cars in the car park, what?
Between 4 and 5 in the afternoon, only 5 cars arrive but 10 leave – what is the rate of change? What does this tell you? What happens to the number of cars in the car park
The rate of natural change is just the same
For every car that leaves 2 arrive – increasing
ROC 0.5 – every 1 that leaves only ½ arrives or for every 1 that arrives 2 leave – number in car park going down

15. One useful measurement
The rate of natural change is
Birth rate ÷ death rate
So what does the 2.88 for Africa tell you?
So what is happening to the population?
In Europe it is 0.92 – what does this number tell you – so what is happening to the population?
For every person that dies, 2.88 are born – and therefore more are being born that die so the population is increasing quite rapidly
For ever person that dies are born – therefore the population is decreasing slowly

16. What is a Model?
Models are representations of things that are (usually) complex.
(If they are very simple, we would not need the model to understand them.)
We use models to help us make sense of the complex reality, or attend only to those features of it that are of interest to our present enquiry.
Or as in the case we are going to look at to see if there is a pattern to population growth

17. Where do we find models in geography?
One area is climate
We break the world’s climate down into about 8 different types – each is a model – it does not tell you exactly what to expect in terms of daily weather in particular place, but it gives you’re a general of picture of the climate.
The model we will look at is the Demographic Transition Model which shows how the death rate and the birth rate change over time and so influence the population growth.

18. This is the original demographic transition model using UK figures
Looking at 1750 – what was the rate of natural change? (rate of BR and DR on LH scale) – close to 1 -
look also at the population (scale for that on RHS) – what was happening? – fairly stable
Between 1750 and 1800 what happened to the DR? Started falling - why was that do you think? – improvement in health care
To the BR? – stayed about the same
To N R of C? – got bigger –
And the population? – started to rise
What big social historical event occurred? Agricultural/industrial revolution
– BR? – coming down
DR? - bit bumpy but going down slower
N R of C? beginning to close again – so population still rising
What about the last 50 years? BR Falling and DR but more slowly so NR of C getting closer to 1 – but population still rising – why do you think that might be? What have we had a lot of since WW2? Immigration

19. This is what the demographic transition model says about the world
General info: The shift from high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility is known as the “demographic transition.”
It is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales.
This model was first described by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929.
In 1945, Frank W. Notestein further developed this theory and suggested that there was a relationship between population change and industrialization. A debate continues questioning if population growth must decline for economic development or if economic progress (or industrialization) leads to slower population growth.
In light of this debate, the completion of the demographic transition has come to be associated with socioeconomic progress.
Looking at the examples row – explain what is happening to the BR/DR and population change
in Kenya?
in Brazil?
in Japan?
in Germany/ (and incidentally Italy too as well)

20. This next bit is just for the curious
If you don’t get it, it really doesn’t matter
As I said it has not even found its way into the textbooks yet

21. If it bothers you as to why there is a rising death rate
The worst current DR is 30
For a start the model has its DR off line
As the life expectancy goes up in 3 while there is still quite a high birth rate, then it is a young population as there are fewer older people, there will be fewer deaths.
But once the number of births drop, the average age of the population goes up, so more older people, greater proportion to die of old age so the death rate begins to climb again

22. What is population change?
3. Migration is the difference between in-migration (immigration) and out-migration (emigration). This difference is called the migration balance, + for more immigrants and – for more emigrants
Net migrate rate is the number of migrants per 1000 of the population per year
Which type of countries are seeing more immigrants?
Where most of the emigrants coming from?

23. What is population change?
So we can imagine it like this
For example- if the birth rate is 15 and the death rate is 9 – what is the natural change rate? In a city of 1 million, what would that mean a year? 6 and 6000
If the immigration rate was 50 and emigration rate was 48 – what is the net migration rate? +2
If the numbers had been the other way round? - 2
Going back to the + 2, for our city of 1million? 2000
So with a natural change rate of 6 and net migration of +2 , what is population rate of change?
Total increase for the city? – That is medium sized town’s worth - think what you would need more of?? Health, education, housing etc
In the case we looked at, is the bath filling or emptying? Filling
Sticking with a birth rate of 15 but having an in-migration of 5 per 1000, work out a death rate and out migration that would give population loss of in a million city
Answer – 2000 down in 1 million is -2 total – so = 20 up so need a total of 22 down to get to – 2 – so any 2 values that add up to 22, e.g. DR of 12 and out-migration of 10 would do it

24. So what did we find out?
In LEDCs, the birth rate was …. (higher/lower) and the death rates was …. But this gave rise to a natural ….., which means the population was …..
In MEDCs the birth rate was …. and the death rates was …. But this gave rise to a natural change, which means the population was either … or …..
The net migration rate was positive in (areas) … which means that ….. It was negative in (areas)… which means that …
Higher higher increase goes up
Lower lower down or goes up a bit
Europe, UK , US S Africa there more immigrants than emigrants and negative in most of Africa and Southern Asia there more emigrants than immigrants