1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT By Ilka Fedor MA Thesis Student in 2011 From: oxfamblogs.org

2. What is Environmental Conflict?  Galtung (1982):  “Wars are often over resources.”  “The destruction of the environment may lead to more wars over resources.”

3. What is Environmental Conflict? Two theories: Neo-Malthusian vs. Cornucopian  Neo-Malthusian:  Population growth leads to resource scarcity  Competition arises  Potential for violent conflict  Cornucopian:  Environmental degradation as a threat multiplier, not a cause of conflict itself  Co-operation and technological advancements

4. What is Environmental Conflict?

5. Environmental Conflict in Action "Almost invariably, we discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political shorthand - an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers. Look to its roots, though, and you discover a more complex dynamic. Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.“ (Ban Ki-moon, 2007)

6. Group Work: Summarise Readings Small groups, briefly discussing the main points of the assigned readings: 1. Barnett & Adger 2. Nordås & Gleditsch 3. Percival & Homer-Dixon

7. Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings Barnett & Adger: Climate change, human security and violent conflict  Key: state vulnerability  Reduces quality and access to essential resources  Vulnerable states:  Reduced capacity to provide human security and peace  Increased human security risks  May increase likelihood of conflict  Migration may be a response (my thesis)

8. Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings Nordås & Gleditsch: Climate change and conflict  Good literature review  Very few evidential links linking to conflict  Two scenarios:  Resource scarcities may cause conflict  International or internal forced environmental migration May lead to conflict – resource competition with new territory

9. Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings Percival & Homer-Dixon: Environmental Scarcity in Rwanda  Environmental effects rely on 2 factors:  Vulnerability of the ecosystem  The population’s physical activity per capita  Increasing population, declining resource base = internal migration  Environmental scarcity  lands, water, forests, and fish  Key variable = Hutu elite insecurity – Arusha Accords  Very limited effect – aggravating, peripheral role In Rwanda, environmental scarcity exacerbated underlying social, political and institutional issues

10. Practical Application of Environmental Conflict Climate change is “simply the greatest collective challenge we face as a human family” (Ban Ki-moon, 2009)  Forced migration  200 million people by 2050 (Stern Review 2006)  Most pressing issue: Low-lying atoll nations: Kiribati, Maldives, Tuvalu  Islands uninhabitable well before “inundation” Loss of freshwater, salinated soils, increased ocean temperatures leading to decreased fishing yields, coastal erosion

11. Overview of My Thesis Loss of culture, national identity, and sovereignty in the face of climate change  Literature review:  Environmental conflict theories  Climate change debates and effects  Migration psychology  Acculturation model Acculturation: cultural identity during migration  Forced migration history  Bikini Island, Banaba (Ocean Island), Carteret Islands  International law: refugees and IDP, law of the sea  Kiribati: History, culture and environment  Research method  personal interviews with Kiribati migrants

12. Overview of My Thesis

13. Climate and Conflict in Action?

14. Kiribati  Population = 100,000  Highest average elevation = 2m  Average width: 1m  Tarawa: Betio population density = Hong Kong  Limited resources

15. Kiribati  IPCC estimates  1°C – 3°C increase in ocean temperatures  0.18 – 0.59cm by the end of 21 st century  EEZ: 12 th largest in the world  3.55 million km 2  Political impetus for change lacking  Personal interviews: Loss of culture, national identity, and sovereignty in the face of climate change

16. What Do You Think?  Group work:  Short discussions in small groups: What do you think could alleviate culture and nationality loss in the Pacific “sinking island” context?

17. My Solution (to date...)  Keep EEZ at current demarcations permanently  Retains “sovereignty”  International law  Global awareness of paying fishing rights fees  Funds for culture retention programs  Appeal for international foreign aid for policing EEZ

18. Thinking of doing an MA?  TOPIC  Supervisor:  Expertise, time availability, how many others they supervise, general supervising style  UO MA Scholarship  Just APPLY for one  Beginning blues (first 3-months?)  Read, read, read and synthesise  Attend graduate students workshops  participate  Network with other MA students  collaborate  Present your work as you go: poster presentations, conferences, academic workshops

19. THANK YOU! Any questions? ilkafedor@yahoo.com