1. The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought Yi-Chih Huang

2. Sahel Drought (I) Nicholson et al. 2000 Dai et al. 2004

3. Sahel Drought (II) Todd Mitchell’s web page

4. GPCP Global Precipitation climatology Project Data – 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from Jan 1979 to Sep 2009 – 1 x 1 degree grid from Oct 1996 to Jun 2009 Created by merging – rain gauge data – Infrared estimates of precipitation – microwave satellite estimates of precipitation Scattering : Wilheit et al. (1991) histogram approach Emission : Grody (1991) scattering index

5. CMAP The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation Data – on 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from 1979 to 2008 – pentad and monthly analysis Sources – gauge observations – five kinds satellite estimates (IR-based GPI, OLR- based OPI, MSU, microwave scattering and microwave emission) – NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

6. Hydrological Onset and Withdrawal Index Dalu, et al., 2009

7. Precipitation in August 2000 (I)

8. Precipitation in August 2000 (II)

9. Precipitation in August 2000 (III)

10. African Surface Temperature CAM v CRU

11. African Surface Temperature Departures CAM v CRU

12. Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v CRU

13. African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

14. African Surface Temperature CAM v NCEP

15. African Surface Temperature Departures CAM v NCEP

16. Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v NCEP

17. African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

18. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures CAM v CRU

19. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

20. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures CAM v NCEP

21. Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

22. African Precipitation CAM v CRU

23. African Precipitation Departures CAM v CRU

24. RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v CRU

25. African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

26. African Precipitation CAM v NCEP

27. African Precipitation Departures CAM v NCEP

28. RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v NCEP

29. African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

30. Sahelian Precipitation Departures CAM v CRU

31. Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU

32. Sahelian Precipitation Departures CAM v NCEP

33. Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP

34. CAM Ensemble Tables 6 15 20 23 31 35 40 45 least RMSE largest RMSE st ΔCAM-ΔCRU 14 22 32 39 43 54 56 62 2 5 6 15 20 28 57 63 st ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 13 14 32 39 43 56 60 62 5 6 15 20 23 28 51 53 pcp ΔCAM-ΔCRU 4 12 13 34 36 37 43 61 2 15 20 23 31 33 35 45 pcp ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 4 34 36 37 41 43 60 61 6 15 20 23 31 35 40 45 Sahel least RMSE largest RMSE st ΔCAM-ΔCRU 9 12 14 22 26 34 41 60 6 15 20 23 31 33 45 58 st ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 9 12 14 22 26 34 41 44 6 15 19 20 23 31 33 45 pcp ΔCAM-ΔCRU 4 19 36 37 38 42 48 61 3 6 7 20 31 33 50 53 pcp ΔCAM-ΔNCEP 4 13 14 19 37 42 43 61 3 6 7 31 33 45 50 53

35. Summary Since late 1960’s precipitation in Sahelian region is almost persistently below the longterm mean The patterns of mean CAM ensemble precipitation in August 2000 are very different from CRU, GPCP, CMAP and NCEP CAM is Compared with CRU and NCEP – No ensemble run is in the groups with the least RMSE’s in both temperature and precipitation – Several runs are in groups with the largest RMSE’s in both temperature and precipitation in African and Sahelian domains