1. After the Crisis: The Global Economics of the P/C Insurance Industry Energy Markets Trends and Challenges Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU President Insurance Information Institute

2. Presentation Outline After the Crisis: Europe’s Weak Economic Recovery –Exposure Impacts on the Insurance Industry and Energy Concerns Post-Crisis: Trends in Energy Consumption, Generation and Carbon Emissions –Changes in global and regional demand, supply for energy and insurance –Focus on Europe Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Energy Business Insurer Financial Strength & Ratings –( Re) Insurers Weathered the Storm Well

3. Presentation Outline (cont.) P/C Insurance Industry Financial Performance –Profitability, Capital & Capacity Energy Insurance Market Review –Capacity, Rating, Exposure, Profitability, Reinsurance, ART –The Financial Crisis: Global Energy Supply, Demand and Investment Catastrophe Losses –2010 Already Producing Large Losses in Energy Sector Post-Crisis Changes to the Insurance Regulatory Environment –Systemic Risk Regulation

4. After the Crisis Europe’s Weak Recovery and Exposure Impacts on the Insurance Industry and Energy Concerns

5. Real GDP by Market 2007-2011F (% change from previous year) Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 3/10/10 edition. Slow growth in GDP will constrain exposure growth on a global scale

6. Real GDP for Largest European Economies and Euro Area, 2007-2011F (% change from prior year) Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 3/10/10 edition. All European economies are growing slowly

7. US Real GDP Growth* *Gold bars are Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 3/10; Insurance Information Institute. Recession began in December 2007. The economic impact affected energy demand on a global scale. The steepest decline since the 6.4% drop in Q1:1982

8. Length of US Recessions * Estimated end date of recession was June 2009. Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; Insurance Information Institute. Current recession began in Dec. 2007 and is already the longest since 1981. If is now tied for the longest recession since the Great Depression. 1929-Present* Months in Duration

9. GDP Growth: Advanced and Emerging Economies vs. World 1970-2011F Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, Jan. 26, 2010; Insurance Information Institute. Emerging economies (led by China) are expected to grow by 6.0% in 2010 Advanced economies will grow slowly in 2010, dampening energy demand World output is forecast to grow by 3.9% in 2010, following a -0.8% drop in 2009

10. Global Industrial Production Rebounds from a Tailspin, Raising Energy Demand Annualized 3-Month Percent Change Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, Jan. 26, 2010; Insurance Information Institute. Global industrial production was down over 25% in early 2009, adversely impacting energy demand, but growing at a 9% clip in late 2009 Industrial demand for energy was particularly hard hit

11. Inflation Rates for Largest European Economies and Euro Area, 2008-2011F (% change from prior year) Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 3/10/10 edition. Inflation is below 1.5% across Europe, reducing claim severity concerns

12. 3-Month Interest Rates for Major Global Economies, 2008-2011F Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 3/10/10 edition. Interest rates remain generally low, depressing insurer investment earnings and putting more pressure on rates

13. Real GDP Growth vs. Real P/C Premium Growth: Modest Association Sources: A.M. Best, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 3/10; Insurance Information Institute. P/C insurance industry’s growth is influenced modestly by growth in the overall economy Real NWP Growth Real GDP Growth

14. Global Industrial Production and Exports: 2005 to 2009 Annual Percentage Change of 3-Month Moving Average Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2010; Insurance Information Institute. Industrial production and global trade crashed extraordinarily during the financial crisis

15. Post-Crisis Trends in Energy Consumption, Generation and Carbon Emissions

16. World & European Primary Energy Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 1990-2030P Quadrillion BTUs Between 2006 and 2030, energy consumption is projected to increase by 1.1% annually in OECD Europe and 1.5% worldwide Global energy consumption is expected to increase by 33.4% between 2010 and 2030 but by only 11.7% in OECD Europe

17. European Energy Consumption As a Share of Global Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute calculations. Europe’s share of global energy consumption is projected to fall from 20.1% in 1990 to 16.2% in 2010 and 13.5% in 2030P European Energy Consumption (OECD Countries, Quad. Btu) OECD Europe Share of Global Energy Consumption 1990-2030P

18. Average Annual Change in Total Energy Consumption by Country/Region Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 2006-2030P Average Annual Change in Consumption (Quadrillion BTUs) Europe/US have the slowest growth rates for energy consumption through 2030, growing at less than 1/6 the rate in China and 1/5 that of India

19. European Share of Global Electricity Generation Capacity As a Share of Global Capacity Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute calculations. 1990-2030P Europe’s share of global energy generation capacity is projected to fall from 18.3% in 2010 and 16.5% in 2030 European Electrical Generation Capacity (OECD Countries, Gigawatts) OECD Europe Share of Global Electricity Generation Capacity

20. Renewable Electricity Generation in OECD Europe by Fuel Wind is by far the most important source of new generation capacity in OECD Europe (i.e., excludes Russia and Eurasian countries) 2006-2030P Sources: Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2009; Insurance Information Institute.

21. World Crude Oil Prices: 1997- March 2010 *All countries spot market price weighted by estimated export volume. Source: Energy Information Administration; http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotworldw.htm Crude oil prices peaked at $145.29 in July 2008, fell 75% to $34.57 in Jan. 2009, but are rising again to over $78/bbl in mid-March 2010 Jan. 1998 $15.21 PEAK Jul. 2008 $145.29 TROUGH Jan. 2009 $34.57 RECENT 12 Mar. 2010 $78.25 Dollars Per Barrel*

22. Global Net Electricity Generation is Growing Faster than Consumption Electricity generation is growing faster than total energy consumption This suggests that there is a net substitution away from other energy sources to electricity Implies a bright future for utilities Requires significant insurance capacity Sources: Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2009; Insurance Information Institute.

23. Average Annual Change in Electricity Generating Capacity by Country/Region Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 2006-2030P Average Annual Change in Generating Capacity (Gigawatts) Electricity generation capacity will grow faster than consumption in Europe, suggesting a net substitution to electricity as a primary energy source

24. World & European Carbon Dioxide Emissions Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 1990-2030P Millions of Metric Tons Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 0.1% annually in OECD Europe and 1.4% worldwide Global CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 30.4% between 2010 and 2030 but by only 4.3% in OECD Europe

25. European Carbon Dioxide Emissions As a Share of Global Emissions Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute calculations. Europe’s share of global carbon emissions is projected to fall from 19.3% in 1990 to 14.0% in 2010 and 11.2% in 2030P 1990-2030P European CO2 Emissions (OECD Countries, Mill. Metric Tons) OECD Europe Share of Global CO2 Emissions

26. Average Annual Change in Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Country/Region Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 2006-2030P Millions of Metric Tons Europe has the slowest growth rates for CO2 emissions, growing at about 1/30 th the rate in China

27. World & European Nuclear Energy Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 1990-2030P Billion Kilowatt Hours Between 2006 and 2030, nuclear energy consumption is projected to decrease by 0.1% annually in OECD Europe and increase 1.5% worldwide Global nuclear energy consumption is expected to increase by 39.2% between 2010 and 2030 but fall by 2.2% in OECD Europe

28. European Nuclear Energy Consumption As a Share of Global Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute calculations. Europe’s share of global energy consumption is projected to fall from 38.9% in 1990 to 33.4% in 2010 and 23.5% in 2030P 1990-2030P European Nuclear energy Consumption (OECD Countries, Bill. Kwh) OECD Europe Share of Global Nuclear Energy Consumption

29. Average Annual Change in Nuclear Energy Consumption by Country/Region *OECD Countries. Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 2006-2030P Billions of Kilowatt Hours Europe is the only region with net negative nuclear energy consumption

30. World Net Effective Electric Power Generation Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. 1990-2030 (est.) Trillions of Kilowatt Hours Global electric power generation was dampened about 3% by the global financial crisis, but will still grow at 2.9% per year through 2030 compared to 1.9% for total energy consumption

31. Electricity Supply Infrastructure: Despite Crisis, Huge Investments Needed along with Insurance Source: International Atomic Energy Agency, World Outlook for Electricity Investment. 2001-2030 (est.) $ Billions Investments in electricity supply infrastructure globally are expected to total $9.841 trillion between 2001 and 2030 European investment could total $1.351 trillion

32. World Energy Supply Infrastructure Investment by Category Source: International Atomic Energy Agency, World Outlook for Electricity Investment. Generation-New $4,080 42% Generation-Refurbished $439 4% Transmission $1,568 16% Distribution $3,755 38% 2001-2030P Generation will account for 46% or $4.5 trillion of all investment through 2030 to meet rising demand. Financial crisis had no significant impact on long-term global energy demand and the need to develop supply infrastructure $ Billions

33. World Electricity Generation by Fuel The sharp increase in generation and the changing composition of fuel source will influence insurance demand and the nature of products sold Source: Energy Information Administration, 2009 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute. Trillions of Kilowatt Hours 2006-2030F

34. World Electricity Generation by Fuel Source Share Source: Insurance Information Institute from data reported in US Department of Energy Report #:DOE/EIA-0484 (Sept. 2008). Renewables 18% Natural Gas 20% Coal 41% Liquids 6% 2005 vs. 2030F 2030 Nuclear 15% 2005 Renewables 15% Natural Gas 25% Coal 47% Liquid 2% Nuclear 11% Surprisingly, coal as a source of electricity generation is expected to rise through 2030. CO2, pollution issues?

35. 3.30 3.70 3.97 4.21 4.44 4.67 European Electricity Generation, by Fuel Source: US Department of Energy Report #:DOE/EIA-0484 (Sept. 2008); Insurance Information Institute. 2005-2030F Trillions of Kilowatt Hours Gas and renewables grow, coal shrinks, implying different insurance needs in Europe

36. Electricity Consumption in the United States* *Change based on billions of kilowatthours used per day. Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2010, Insurance Information Institute. 1999-2011P Electricity consumption in the US was hit severely due to the deep recession but is now rebounding modestly

37. US Total Electricity Consumption Recession had a significant but in the long-run minor impact on electricity consumption Modest growth in consumption is projected for both 2010 and 2011 1999-2011P Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2010, Insurance Information Institute.

38. Severe Recession Depressed US Energy Demand Sources: Energy Information Administration based on Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2009 and March 2010. Change 2009 vs. 2008 Percentage Change in Consumption Industrial consumption of electricity has experienced the most severe declines

39. US Energy Expenditures As a % of GDP Have Been Hurt by Recession Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2010; Insurance Information Institute. The energy price bubble pushed energy expenditures to 9.9% of GDP in 2008. The bursting of the bubble and recession pushed expenditures down to 7.0% of GDP in 2009, rising to about 8% in 2010 and 2011. Energy demand is recovering from the global recession and 2008 energy price spike, but remains below pre-crisis levels Percentage of GDP

40. Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Energy Business

41. Global Financial Crisis Will Have Little Long- Term Impact on Consumption or Generation The net impact of the financial crisis was to reduce projected 2030 global capacity and consumption by 2 to 3% from levels projected pre-crisis The long-term impact is therefore negligible, though there were some significant short- and intermediate term impacts, particularly for industrial energy consumption Fossil fuel price volatility exacerbated the crisis The trends toward renewable energy sources will continue with little disruption The crisis, along with dissatisfaction over rising tax burdens in the US, have significantly reduced the chances of a comprehensive cap and trade system in the US Relative weakness of US and European recoveries will accelerate shift in consumption and generation shares in Asia Financial Crisis: Energy’s Lessons

42. Financial Strength & Ratings The Global Insurance Industry Has Weathered the Economic Storm Well

43. P/C Insurer Impairments Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 1969-2009P 5 of the 11 are Florida companies (1 of these 5 is a title insurer) The number of impairments varies significantly over the P/C insurance cycle, with peaks occurring well into hard markets

44. P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio *Combined ratio of 101.7 is through Q3:09; 0.36% 2009 impairment rate is III estimate based on preliminary A.M. Best data. Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 2009 estimated impairment rate rose to 0.36% up from a near record low of 0.23% in 2008 and the 0.17% record low in 2007; Rate is still less than one-half the 0.79% average since 1969 Impairment rates are highly correlated with underwriting performance and reached record lows in 2007/08 Combined Ratio Impairment Rate 1969-2009P

45. Summary of A.M. Best’s P/C Insurer Ratings Actions in 2009 Source: A.M. Best. Upgraded – 59, 3.2% Initial – 44, 2.4% Under Review – 69, 3.8% Other – 216, 11.9% P/C insurance is by design a resilient business. The dual threat of financial disasters and catastrophic losses are anticipated in the industry’s risk management strategy Despite financial market turmoil and a soft market in 2009, 76% of ratings actions by A.M. Best were affirmations; just 2.9% were downgrades and 3.2% were upgrades Downgraded – 53, 2.9% Affirm – 1,375, 75.7%

46. Reasons for US P/C Insurer Impairments Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2008 Impairment Review, Special Report, Apr. 6, 2008. Investment Problems 7.0% Misc. 9.1% Significant Change in Business 4.2% Reinsurance Failure 3.7% 1969-2008 Affiliate Impairment 7.9% Deficient Loss Reserves/ Inadequate Pricing 38.1% Deficient loss reserves and inadequate pricing are the leading cause of insurer impairments, underscoring the importance of discipline. Investment catastrophe losses play a much smaller role. Catastrophe Losses 7.6% Alleged Fraud 8.1% Rapid Growth 14.3% 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

47. P/C Insurance Financial Performance A Resilient Industry in Challenging Times

48. Profitability Historically Volatile

49. P/C Net Income after Taxes * ROE figures are GAAP; 1 Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 4.5% ROAS for 2008 and 5.9% for the first 9 months of 2009. 2009:Q3 net income was $20.5 billion excluding M&FG. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. 1991-2009P $ Millions 2005 ROE*= 9.4% 2006 ROE = 12.2% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.3% 2009:Q3 ROAS 1 = 4.5% P/C industry profits for full-year 2009 were up sharply from 2008, but are still well below pre-crisis levels -$6,970

50. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C ROE: P/C vs. All Industries 1987–2009:Q3* P/C profitability is cyclical and volatile Hugo Andrew Northridge Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years Sept. 11 Katrina, Rita, Wilma 4 Hurricanes Financial Crisis* * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 and 2009 through Q3. Sources: ISO, Fortune; Insurance Information Institute. Percent

51. A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What It Once Was: 90-95 Is Where It’s at Now Combined ratios must be lower in today’s depressed investment environment to generate risk appropriate ROEs Combined ratio of about 100 generated a 16% ROE in 1979, 10% in 2005 and 6% in 2009 *2009 figure is return on average statutory surplus. 2008 and 2009 figures exclude mortgage and financial guarantee insurers. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data. Combined Ratio / ROE

52. P/C Premium Growth Primarily Driven by the Industry’s Underwriting Cycle, Not the Economy

53. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Strength of Recent Hard Markets by NWP Growth 1975-781984-872000-03 Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods. Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute. Percent Net written premiums fell 0.7% in 2007 (first decline since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the first 3-year decline since 1930-33 during the Great Depression. Expected decline of 1.6% in 2010.

54. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Average Commercial Rate Change, All Lines KRW Effect Magnitude of price declines shrank during crisis, reflecting shrinking capital, reduced investment gains, deteriorating underwriting performance, higher cat losses and costlier reinsurance Market remains soft as capital restored and underwriting losses fall (1Q:2004-4Q:2009) Percent Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute.

55. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Change in Commercial Rate Renewals Most major commercial lines renewed down in Q4:2009 by roughly the same margin as a year earlier Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. Percentage Change (%) By Line: 2009:Q4

56. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Change in Commercial Rate Renewals Market has been soft for 6 years and remains soft as capital is restored and underwriting losses fall KRW Effect Peak = 2001:Q4 +28.5% Trough = 2007:Q3 -13.6% Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. Percentage Change (%) By Account Size: 1999:Q4 to 2009:Q4

57. Cumulative Quarterly Commercial Rate Changes Pricing today is where it was in Q2:2001 (pre-9/11) Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute. 1999:Q4=100

58. Capital/Policyholder Surplus (US) Shrinkage, but Not Enough to Trigger Hard Market

59. US Policyholder Surplus “Surplus” is a measure of underwriting capacity. It is analogous to “Owners Equity” or “Net Worth” in non-insurance organizations The Premium-to-Surplus Ratio Stood at $0.87:$1 as of 9/30/09, Up from Near Record Low of $0.85:$1 at Year-End 2007 Surplus as of 9/30/09 was $490.8B, up from $437.1B as of 3/31/09. Recent peak was $521.8 as of 9/30/07. Surplus as of 9/30/09 is now only 5.9% below 2007 peak; Crisis trough was as of 3/31/09  16.2% below 2007 peak. * As of 9/30/09 Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. $ Billions 1975–2009:Q3*

60. Policyholder Surplus Pre-crisis peak. Capacity peaked at $521.8 as of 9/30/07. Capacity as of 12/31/09 was just 0.5% below the 2007 peak and will likely set a new record in 2010. Capacity has recovered and is now within 2% of its pre-crisis peak. Declines Since 2007:Q3 Peak 08:Q2: -$16.6B (-3.2%) 08:Q3: -$43.3B (-8.3%) 08:Q4: -$64.5B (-12.4%) 09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%) 09:Q3: -$31.8B (-5.9%) 09:Q4: -$10.3B (-1.9%) Source: ISO, AM Best. $ Billions 2006:Q4–2009:Q4P

61. Ratio of Insured Loss to Surplus for Largest Capital Events Since 1989* The financial crisis at its peak ranks as the largest “capital event” over the past 20+ years * Ratio is for end-of-quarter surplus immediately prior to event. Date shown is end of quarter prior to event. ** Date of maximum capital erosion; As of 9/30/09 (latest available) ratio = 5.9%. Source: PCS; Insurance Information Institute. Percent

62. Historically, Hard Markets Follow When Surplus “Growth” Is Negative* Sharp decline in capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a true hard market Surplus growth is now positive but premiums continue to fall, a departure from the historical pattern * 2009 NWP and Surplus figures are % changes as of Q4:09P vs Q4:08. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute. Percent

63. Investment Performance Investments Are a Principle Source of Declining Profitability

64. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain Investment gains fell by 51% in 2008 due to lower yields and poor equity market conditions. In 2009, the return of realized capital losses helped offset lower investment income 1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. * 2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. $ Billions 1994–2009P 1

65. Reduction in Combined Ratio Necessary to Offset 1% Decline in Investment Yield to Maintain Constant ROE, by Line* Lower investment earnings place a greater burden on underwriting and pricing discipline *Based on 2008 Invested Assets and Earned Premiums. **US domestic reinsurance only. Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.

66. Distribution of P/C Insurance Industry’s Investment Portfolio Invested assets totaled $1.214 trillion as of 12/31/08 Insurers are generally conservatively invested, with more than 2/3 of assets invested in bonds as of 12/31/08 Only about 15% of assets were invested in common stock as of 12/31/08 Even the most conservative of portfolios was hit hard in 2008 Portfolio Facts As of December 31, 2008 Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute research. Cash and Short-Term Investments 8.0% Bonds 68.4% Common Stock 14.8% Real Estate 0.9% Preferred Stock 1.8% Other 6.1%

67. Underwriting Trends Financial Crisis Does Not Directly Impact Underwriting Performance: Cycle, Catastrophes Were 2009’s Drivers

68. P/C Reserve Development Reserve releases are expected to taper off in 2010 and drop significantly in 2011 Note: 2005 reserve development excludes a $6 billion loss portfolio transfer between American Re and Munich Re. Including this transaction, total prior year adverse development in 2005 was $7 billion. The data from 2000 and subsequent years excludes development from financial guaranty and mortgage insurance. Sources: Barclay’s Capital; A.M. Best. Prior Yr. Reserve Release ($B) Impact on Combined Ratio (Points) 1992–2011E

69. Calendar Year vs. Accident Year P/C Combined Ratio Accident year results show a more significant deterioration in underwriting performance. Calendar year results are helped by reserve releases Note: 2005 reserve development excludes a $6 billion loss portfolio transfer between American Re and Munich Re. Including this transaction, total prior year adverse development in 2005 was $7 billion. The data from 2000 and subsequent years excludes development from financial guaranty and mortgage insurance. Sources: Barclay’s Capital; A.M. Best. 1992–2010E 1

70. Energy Insurance Market Review Global Energy Business Rebounding as Financial Crisis Eases; Other Factors Matter Too

71. Key Trends Capacity Exposure Profitability Reinsurance Alternative Risk Transfer

72. Global Energy Insurance Markets: Key Trends Aggregate commercial property/casualty (nonlife) capacity is now just below its 2007 Q3 peak after falling sharply in 2008 and is expected to set a new record in 2010 Capital providers remain attracted to the energy sector despite potential losses because of the profitable underwriting results posted by many P/C insurers in 2009 Abundance of capital and lack of major catastrophe losses are driving down prices and increasing competition 2010 global capacity for upstream energy at 10-year high. Capacity for downstream risks also back up to 2000 levels Source: Willis Energy Market Review: March 2010. Insurance Capacity

73. Upstream Operating Underwriting Capacities, 2000-2010 (Excl. GOM) Capacity at Ten Year High Source: Willis Energy Market Review: March 2010.

74. Downstream Operating Underwriting Capacities, 2000-2010 (Excl. GOM) Capacity Source: Willis Energy Market Review: March 2010.

75. Upstream Capacities and Average Rating Levels, 1993-2010 (Excl. GOM) How Far are Rating Levels Set to Fall? Source: Willis Energy Market Review: March 2010.

76. Onshore Capacities and Average Rating Levels, 1993-2010 (Excl. GOM) Rating Levels Source: Willis Energy Market Review: March 2010.

77. International Liability Market Capacity, 2001-2010 Source: Willis Energy Market Review: March 2010.

78. Global Energy Insurance Markets: Key Trends Global energy demand rebounding as financial crisis eases. Energy insurers’ exposure and therefore premium income levels can only benefit from upturn in energy industry activity and recovery of worldwide oil prices. BUT, capital providers’ willingness to invest fresh capital in insurance industry has boosted capacity to 10-year high, creating soft market conditions Upswing in project activity begins to get underway following oil price recovery BOTTOM LINE IN 2010: Renewed confidence in the economic recovery boosts demand and supply for energy and energy assets –Global energy demand will continue to rebound –Rise in fuel prices signals new sources of premium income, but could also signal potential increase in frequency and severity of losses –Long-term partnerships and risk quality key as insurance industry continues to meet demands of buyers in increasingly competitive market Insured Exposure Source: Willis Energy Market Review March 2010; Insurance Information Institute.

79. Global Energy Insurance Markets: Key Trends Loss of investment return necessarily increases pressure on (re)insurers to generate underwriting profits in soft market Lack of major catastrophes and relatively benign claims environment (for now) reduces insurers’ reliance on decreasing investment returns for profits Many insurers struggling to obtain premium growth in face of global recession and softening market Insurers will be forced to compete more fiercely for premium income and market share in future Source: Willis Energy Market Review March 2010; Insurance Information Institute. Profitability

80. Energy Losses vs. Global Energy Premium Income 1990-2009* Source: Willis Energy Loss Database (figures include both insured and uninsured losses *Figures include both insured and uninsured losses Source: Willis Energy Market Review: March 2010.

81. Gulf of Mexico Windstorm: Major Market Driver Despite benign 2009 hurricane season, volatility in Gulf of Mexico windstorm (GOM) loss record continues to be major market driver Absence of GOM wind activity last year means new underwriting strategies unveiled in the wake of Hurricane Ike have yet to be tested The jury’s still out on the market’s new GOM wind model Oil price rises mean more money available for insurance spend or sufficient funds to retain more risk Reduced commercial rates in 2010, but if price goes too low insurers may withdraw; if no takers at price offered then portfolio will collapse Sustainability of offshore GOM wind portfolio hangs in the balance Source: Willis Energy Market Review March 2010.

82. Reinsurance Market Trends Over the preceding 12 months when many other markets were in turmoil the global reinsurance industry continued to meet its clients requirements By and large reinsurers have maintained a responsible underwriting attitude over the January 1 renewal season January 1 renewals saw a softening in reinsurance pricing due to a profitable 2009 underwriting year and a recovery from 2008 losses following the global investment market recovery in 2009 Primary insurers struggling to obtain premium growth put pressure on their expense ratios and reinsurance cost budgets Cat bond market recovering helped by convergence in pricing between traditional reinsurance and cat bonds Reinsurers’ ability to continue to provide clients with long-term capital security Source: Willis Energy Market Review March 2010; Insurance Information Institute.

83. Global Reinsurance Capacity Shrank in 2008, Mostly Recouped in 2009 Source: AonBenfield Reinsurance Market Outlook 2009; Insurance Information Institute. Hurricanes 14% Realized Capital Losses 31% Change in Unrealized Capital Losses 55% Global Reinsurance Capacity Global reinsurance capacity fell by an estimated 17% in 2008, but rebounded on investments and light cats losses in 2009 Source of Decline $ Billions

84. Catastrophe Bonds: Risk Capital Issuance Source: Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute. Catastrophe bond risk capital issuance plunged by 62% when credit market turmoil spread in 2008 but was up 26% in 2009 as markets improved $ Millions

85. Catastrophe Losses Adverse Trends in Catastrophe Losses

86. Global Natural Catastrophes 1980-2009 MEGATREND Global natural catastrophe loss trends are ominous and portend an even more disastrous decade ahead. Terrorism and other man- ade disasters could exacerbate the trend. Overall and insured losses with trend Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE; Insurance Information Institute. US$ Billions Overall losses (in 2009 values)Insured losses (in 2009 values) Trend overall lossesTrend insured losses

87. Natural Catastrophes 2009-Jan 2010 Fast growing India is exposed to many large- scale natural catastrophes, though still a “small” insurance market China is also exposed to many large- scale natural catastrophes, but still has relatively low levels of insurance penetration 2009: Catastrophe losses were relatively light due to the lack of hurricane activity Longer-run: An increasing share of insured catastrophe losses will come from the developing world, especially China, India Worldmap Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE; Insurance Information Institute.

88. Natural Catastrophes: Jan-Mar 2010 Winter Storm Xynthia produced at least $2B in insured losses and $4B in economic losses, including damage to energy infrastructure Chilean earthquake (mag. 8.8) on 27 Feb. produced at least $4 billion in insured losses, $20 billion in economic losses, including damage to energy infrastructure Severe winter weather in the Eastern US produced at least $1B in insured losses and $2B in economic losses, including damage to energy infrastructure Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE; Insurance Information Institute. Worldmap

89. The Costliest Catastrophes So Far in 2010 Impacted the Energy Business and Its Insurers Significantly *Period from 1 January through 31 March 2010. Source: 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risk Research, NatCatSERVICE.

90. Post-Crisis Changes to the Insurance Regulatory Environment Regulators Are Threatening to Impose Regulations Appropriate for Banks on (Re)Insurers

91. Systemic Risk: Oversight & Resolution Authority Issues Related to Systemic Risk & Resolution Authority US federal authority created to oversee systemic risk of large financial holding companies (e.g., Federal Reserve or other existing/new agency) [a.k.a. TOO BIG TOO FAIL] –P/C insurers are working to “carve out” an exception to systemic risk oversight (arguing they were not the source/cause of problems) –Without such an exception, P/C insurers could be subject to assessments (e.g., Financial Responsibility Tax) for failed non- insurance financial institutions or could be forced to repay funds provided for government assistance to firms due to problems outside of their P/C insurance operations European regulators seem to believe large (re)insurers should be included under the definition of systemically important firms Source: Insurance Information Institute.

92. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Systemic Risk: Oversight & Resolution Authority How Current Systemic Risk Proposal Could Affect Insurers Bank holding companies with more than $50 billion in assets would be subject to an assessment (Financial Responsibility Tax) in order to build a $50 billion fund to wind down (resolve) large, insolvent financial institutions –This first group could include some insurers that own banks If the $50 billion resolution fund is exhausted, then other non-bank financial institutions (including insurers, even those without banks) with more that $50 billion in consolidated assets would be assessed to make up any shortfall Bottom Line: P/C insurers do not object to the concept of systemic risk, but feel that the focus on size alone is inappropriate given the roots of the financial crisis and the fact that P/C insurers were not the cause Source: Insurance Information Institute.

93. 12/01/09 - 9pmeSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C Systemic Risk: Oversight & Resolution Authority Rational for Excluding P/C Insurers from Systemic Regulation The insurance business model (encompassing both insurers and reinsurers) has specific features that make it a source of stability within the financial system –Up-front premiums provide strong operating cash flow –Insurance policies generally represent longer-term liabilities with little or no ability for the policyholder to demand immediate payments (no “run” on insurers) –The few insurers that experienced serious problems were impacted not by their insurance business but by quasi-banking activities. This includes AIG and “monoline” insurers that provided financial guarantees and engaged in CDS writing and trading Source: Geneva Association, Systemic Risk in Insurance, March 2010.

94. Thank you for your time and your attention! Insurance Information Institute Online: www.iii.org Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwig