1. Disaster, Development and Human Security: Evolution of a Conceptual Framework William E. Bertrand webertrand@cs.com Charting New Approaches to Defense and Security Challenges in the Western Hemisphere March 9-11, 2005 Coral Gables, Florida

2. Socio-Economic Status by Mortality Adult MalesAdult FemalesChildrenTotal SESNDeath Rate N N N High17366.5%1443.5%50.0%32237.3% Middle16091.9%9316.1%240.0%27758.5% Low45487.9%17945.3%7671.1%70975.3% Un87578.4%238.7%0-89876.6% Total166281.0%43923.5%10551.4%220668.2%

3. Disaster Causes and Effects: We Know Where They Will Happen

4. Increasing Number of Events Qualifying as Natural Disasters in Latin America & the Caribbean, 1900-2000 Source: Charvériat, 2000.

5. Development Risk Continuum Underdevelopment Disaster Socio-Economic Demographic Political Cultural/Religious Human Capital Geographic Time Factors

6. Key Characteristics Disasters –Time = acute –High Visibility –Political support from all sides –Conflict resistant –Military role is evident – Cash catalyst Development –Time = long term –Low visibility –Variable political support –Conflict friendly –Military role unclear –Cash black hole

7. History of a Concept in South America Disaster/Response/Mitigation - OFDA, PAHO,Regional Associations – separate and not equal More recently Vulnerability/Poverty Reduction/ Development –Training programs in Colombia, Bolivia and Argentina –Change in focus at the Regional level –Focus on human security including right to personal security and food security

8. Lessons from Recent Disasters Lack of disaster preparedness at all levels. Lack of mitigation planning Lack of communication networking and dissemination of information among states Delayed response due to mismanagement of relief, resources, manpower and duty delegation Lack of Interface and Coordination with State, District Administration & Community HUGE LOSS OF LIFE & PROPERTY

9. Our Problems Lack of formal training Rapid turnover of leaders Little or no incentive structure for professional advancement Lack of linking mechanisms between disaster response and security Fuzzy leaders still not looking at evidence or investing in prevention i.e. vulnerability reduction.

10. International Aid as a Function of Direct Disaster Note: The regression sample is disasters since 1960 resulting in economic losses of more than US$50 million and the corresponding amounts of aid received for 16 countries in Latin America Source: Disaster Risk Management: National Systems for the Comprehensive Management of Disaster Risk and Financial Strategies for Natural Disaster Reconstruction, IADB, 2003.

11. Preparing is Possible and Preferable To develop frameworks for vulnerability reduction and natural disaster mitigation. For Collaborative training and capacity building on disaster management For Deployment of rapid response and assessment teams on request. To build Institutional capacity for country specific and regional,education, academic and training institutions

13. Disaster Risk Factors

14. Local Disaster Index (LDI) LDI represents –A country’s proneness to lower level or small scale disasters Represents spatial variability and dispersion of risk in a country –Type of impact lower level or small scale disasters have on local development Captures incidence and uniformity of distribution of local effects Higher LDI = greater the regularity in the magnitude and distribution of effects between all the countries municipalities due to different types of hazards Source: Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management, IADB-UNC/IDEA, 2005

15. Aggregated LDI for the Depts. of Colombia, 1986-1990 Source: Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management, IADB-UNC/IDEA, 2005

16. Disasters and Complex Emergencies Same Underlying Causes Located in the same places Entrance through the military portal is difficult and problematic Entrance through the disaster portal is supported by all sides Recognize that the problems come from all sides now and need to be treated as such