1. GOOD JOBS WANTED : Labor Markets in Latin America GOOD JOBS WANTED : Labor Markets in Latin America Inter-American Development Bank Washington DC. May 2004 Economic and Social Progress Report 2004 Inter American Development Bank

2. Unemployment, low wages and employment instability are the main sources of concern for Latin Americans Most pressing problem in your country 0%5%10%15%20%25% Racial Discrimination Environment Transport Housing problems Drug traffic Health Problems Human Rights Violations Drug Consumption Lack of opportunities for youth Inflation Low quality of Education Terrorism/Political Violence Low wages Employment Instability Delinquence /Insecurity Poverty Corruption Unemployment

3. WHAT IS GOING ON?

4. - Labor Supply: The increasing supply of labor is not the root of the problem... it is a source of economic growth - Structural Reforms: Did not have the expected effects - External Shocks: Labor markets in the region adjust to shocks mostly through wages.....but this appears to be changing

5. - Technology: The problem is not the technology...but the lack of it - Education: Inequality in earnings reflects inequality in education....but education, alone, will not get individuals out of poverty

6. Some new issues: - Job and Worker turnover - Regulations

7. The dilemma of the labor policies: - Job and Worker turnover is powerful engine of growth - 30% of workers change job each year - Many lose income in the process - Income protection is not a free good - Protection has equity and efficiency costs - Enforcing labor laws is crucial to uphold the social contract.

8. Job and Worker turnover is very high:

9. Job turnover is very high and comparable to the one observed in other parts of the world Average Annual Gross Job Flows (% of employment) 1.5 -3.2 -1.6 1.5 1.2 0.7 2.6 -4.1 2.2 1.1 6.0 -25-20-15-10-50510152025 Germany (1983-1990) Estonia (1992-1994) Finland (1986-1991) U.S.A. (1979-1983) Italy (1984-1992) France (1984-1992) Canada (1983-1991) Sweden (1985-1992) New Zealand (1987-1992) Denmark (1983-1989) Brazil (1991-2000) Mexico (1994-2000) Gross Job CreationEntryGross Job DestructionExit Avg. Net Change in Employment -0.1

10. Job turnover is similarly high in manufacturing Average Annual Gross Job Flows in Manufacturing (Percentage of employment) 7.9 0.4 0.6 -3.5 1.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 6.5 -20-15-10-50510152025 Norway (1976-1986) USA (1973-1988) Colombia (1980-1999) Israel (1970-1994) UK (1981-1991) Canada (1979-1984) Chile (1980-1999) Mexico (1994-2000) Morocco (1984-1989) Gross Job CreationGross Job DestructionAvg.Net Change

11. And it is not driven by aggregate shocks Job Reallocation By Type of Shock 05101520253035 Colombia (1981-1999) Chile (1980-1999) Mexico (1994-2000) Morocco (1984-1989) USA (1973-1988) AggregateSectoral (Between Sectors)Idiosyncratic (Within Sectors)

12. Across the world, job turnover is an important engine of productivity growth Labor Productivity Growth Decomposition Annual Growth Rate Within-firm productivity growth Output reallocation amongst existing firms Entry of firms Exit of firms 5.3 4.1 4.3 3.9 2.1 2.3 5.2 5.0 4.7 2.5 3.1 1.6 3.0 5.3 2.3 -75-252575125175 1987-92 Finland 1989-94 France 1987-92 Germany 1992-97 1987-92 Italy 1992-97 1987-92 Netherlands 1992-97 1987-1992 Portugal 1992-1997 1987-92 UK 1992-97 1987-92 United States 1992-97 Chile 1992-97 Colombia 1992-97

13. Workers that are involuntarily separated suffer wage losses after reemployment Involuntary unemployed in t+1 -20%-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0% Change in monthly wage Mexico Argentina Change in hourly wage

14. However, labor flows imply costs in the welfare of the workers. - During the 90’s, employment flows (E) towards unemployment (U) in Latin-America were two times bigger than those of US (and unemployment is a problem in developing countries). - Women, youths, unskilled workers and workers without social security have the highest probability of transitioning to unemployment

15. Time spent searching can be beneficial. - Women, youth, and skilled workers have a smaller chance of leaving unemployment during the first six month than men, adult, and unskilled. - However, women, youth, and skilled workers have the highest probability of finding a registered, full-benefit wage job in a big firm.

16. Labor market regulation has significative costs:

17. Latin America is highly regulated Conditions of Employment Index (0-1) 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91 Jamaica Uruguay Chile Ecuador Argentina Perú Rep. Dominicana México Colombia Panamá Brasil Venezuela Bolivia Industrial Anglosaxon East Asia and Pacific Islands Industrial Continental Europe Middle East and North Africa South Asian Region Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and Caribbean Eastern Europe and Central Asia

18. Job security in Latin America is the highest in the world The Cost of Job Securities End of Eighties relative to end of Nineties 0510152025 Paraguay Uruguay Nicaragua Dominican Rep. Argentina El Salvador Mexico Chile Honduras Costa Rica Bolivia Panama Brazil Peru Ecuador Colombia Venezuela Cost of benefits measured in multiple of wages 1999 1988 Latin America average, 1999 Industrial countries average, 1999 Caribbean average, 1999

19. Collective bargaining is also is highly regulated Industrial (collective) relations laws index Jamaica Dominican Rep. Uruguay Bolivia Chile Panamá Venezuela Mexico Colombia Brazil Argentina Peru Industrial Anglosaxon South Asian Region Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Eastern Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Industrial Continental Europe East Asia and Pacific Islands 0.00.51.01.52.02.5 Collective bargaining Worker participation in management Collective disputes

20. A large percentage of workers are not covered Percentage of Wage Employees without Social Security benefits, End of Nineties 01020304050607080 Costa Rica 2000 Chile1998 Colombia1999 Mexico 1999 Brazil 1999 Argentina 2001 Venezuela 1998 El Salvador 1998 Dominican Rep. 1998 Bolivia 1999 Peru 2000 Nicaragua 2001

21. However, there is plenty of evidence on the costs of the regulation. - Labor stability decrease turn-over and the flexibility of firms’ adjustments - Social security contributions and other non-wage costs decrease employment and increase unemployment Labor stability regulations decrease the employment of youths and unskilled workers. - Labor stability can increase wage rigidities

22. WHAT CAN WE DO?

23. Labor policies and social contract - Labor and Social policies: - Differences in focalization, nature and purpose - Without adequate registries and enforcement capacity there are no labor policies: - It’s impossible to create UI when the labor authority doesn’t know whether or where a beneficiary works - The region spends very little in labor policies

24. Labor policies in a dynamic world - Reduce macro volatility - Ease the reallocation process with LIS Provide feasible and adequate level of income protection - Increase the population marketable skills - Enforce labor laws and regulations Labor policies in a dynamic world - Reduce macro volatility - Ease the reallocation process with LIS Provide feasible and adequate level of income protection - Increase the population marketable skills - Enforce labor laws and regulations

25. Labor intermediation systems - A permanent function - Implemented through a complex network of public and private providers, with lots of referral capability - Inclusive to improve the employment opportunities of the poor

26. Income Protection - Set of systems adapted to the variety of labor insertions of the population - 3 basic criteria: - Do not generate incentives against production or work - Coverage as wide as possible, including workers in non-regulated contracts - Budgetary allocations should be counter-cyclical

27. Training Systems - Priority is to increase attractiveness, relevance, and pertinence of basic education - The State can help: strong regulator and a variety of public and private providers - Local level experimentation can help meaningful participation of the social partners

28. The labor authority - The labor authority needs to increase its capability to register, enforce, and evaluate the impact of policies and regulations. - A good design of collective bargaining rules helps to improve productivity. - Innovation in enforcement should involve the State and private agents.