1. Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region Cooperative Forecasting Group April 5, 2005 Maryland Department of Planning Mark D. Goldstein

2. Components of Reconciliation Population by Age and Sex Population by Age and Sex Labor Force by Age and Sex Labor Force by Age and Sex Jobs by Place of Work Jobs by Place of Work Net Commutation Net Commutation

3. What Was Used Round 7 population for WashCog Jurisdictions Round 7 population for WashCog Jurisdictions MDP population by age distributions for MD jurisdictions MDP population by age distributions for MD jurisdictions VEC population by age distributions for WashCog VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C. VEC population by age distributions for WashCog VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C. MDP projected LFPRs by age MDP projected LFPRs by age Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base for all jurisdictions Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base for all jurisdictions

4. Population Change, Wash COG Region, Actual and RND 7 Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau and local planning offices

5. Population Change in the WashCog Region by Major Age Cohorts, 2000 - 2030 Source: Maryland Department of Planning

6. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age in the WashCOG Region, 2000 & 2030 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data

7. Projected Percentage Point Change in L.F.P.Rs in the Wash COG Region by Age, 2000 - 2030 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

8. LFPRs: MDP Projections WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+ Source: Maryland Department of Planning

9. LFPRs: MDP Projections vs. Constant 2000 LFPRs WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+ Source: Maryland Department of Planning

10. Projected Total Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

11. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Washington Cog Region, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

12. Reconciliation Process Given population, labor force and job projections and a constant jobs/employed persons ratio Given population, labor force and job projections and a constant jobs/employed persons ratio To balance: allow net commutation to fill in the gap between jobs and labor force totals To balance: allow net commutation to fill in the gap between jobs and labor force totals

14. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Washington, D.C., 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

15. Net Commutation for Washington, D.C. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 65,100 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

16. Net Commutation Rate for Washington D.C., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

17. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Arlington Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

18. Net Commutation for Arlington Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 36,650 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

19. Net Commutation Rate for Arlington Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

20. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Alexandria City, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

21. Net Commutation for Alexandria City Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 16,450 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

22. Net Commutation Rate for Alexandria City, 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

23. Net Commutation for Central Jurisdictions Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 118,250 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

24. Net Commutation Rate for Central Jurisdictions Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

25. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Montgomery Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

26. Net Commutation for Montgomery Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 42,600 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030

27. Net Commutation Rate for Montgomery Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

28. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince George’s Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

29. Net Commutation for Prince George’s Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 123,650 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030

30. Net Commutation Rate for Prince George’s Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

31. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Fairfax Co, 2000-2030* Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices * Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church

32. Net Commutation for Fairfax Co.* Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 92,150 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030 * Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church

33. Net Commutation Rate for Fairfax Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

34. Net Commutation for Inner Suburbs Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 258,350 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030

35. Net Commutation Rate for the Inner Suburbs, 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

36. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Loudoun Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

37. Net Commutation for Loudoun Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 48,150 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

38. Net Commutation Rate for Loudoun Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

39. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince William Co, 2000-2030* Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices * Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park

40. Net Commutation for Prince William Co.* Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 31,900 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030 * Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park

41. Net Commutation Rate for Prince William Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

42. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Calvert Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

43. Net Commutation for Calvert Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A modest increase in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

44. Net Commutation Rate for Calvert Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

45. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Charles Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

46. Net Commutation for Charles Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 25,200 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

47. Net Commutation Rate for Charles Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

48. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Frederick Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

49. Net Commutation for Frederick Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A decrease of 4,400 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

50. Net Commutation Rate for Frederick Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

51. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Stafford Co, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

52. Net Commutation for Stafford Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 8,000 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

53. Net Commutation Rate for Stafford Co., 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

54. Net Commutation for Outer Suburbs Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 112,200 in net OUTcommutation between 2000 and 2030

55. Net Commutation Rate for the Outer Suburbs, 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

56. Net Commutation for the Washington COG Region Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 264,400 increase in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

57. Net Commutation Rate for Washington COG Region, 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

58. Net Commutation for the WashCog Region with Increasing LFPRs in 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

59. Net Commutation and Rates for the WashCog Region in 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

60. Percent of Net Commuters into Washington COG Region in 2000 Source: The MNCPPC from U.S. Census,

61. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Baltimore Region, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

62. Net Commutation for the Baltimore Region Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 157,300 “turnaround” between 2000 and 2030

63. Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Baltimore & Wash COG Regions, 2000-2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

64. Net Commutation for the Baltimore & Washington COG Regions Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 421,650 increase in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

65. Net Commutation Rate for the Baltimore & Washington COG Regions, 2000-2030 * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

66. BMC Wash COG Rest of CMSA Adjacent Counties Spotsylvania Hampshire Fauquier Frederick Baltimore Harford Balto. City Howard Anne Arundel Calvert Montgomery Prince George’s Stafford Charles Loudoun Jefferson Clarke Warren Fairfax D.C. Prince William Carroll Cecil Washington St. Mary’s Caroline King George Franklin AdamsYork Lancaster Shenandoah Page Rappahannock Culpeper Orange Morgan Berkeley Queen Anne’s