1. The use of census data as an input in forecasting population, employment and land use change 5 th October 2010 Andy Dobson David Simmonds Consultancy

2. Outline of the Presentation Context –Forecasting Land Use, Pop, Employment –Use of Land use models Data inputs –The use of Census material Application –for forecasting change –Policy appraisal

3. Context concerned with forecasting –Population, Households, Employment –Development –Interactions between them We use Land Use Models to understand change over time – a forecasting tool it differs from many standard population and economic forecasts: –Wider range of influences – development, accessibility, market, environmental factors may operate at a fine geographical level - has a zone structure that often based upon datazones, wards or smaller units

4. Context Land Use Model are concerned with –Population, households, employment, building stocks –Not really about Land ! They are a powerful tool for testing or appraising policy: Eg what happens if we build more houses within City Centre as opposed to edge of town Often used in conjunction with transport models Eg what happens if a new rail link or highway is built improving access along a transport corridor

5. Developers Firms Residents Transport service suppliers Transport service suppliers Transport infrastructure suppliers Transport infrastructure suppliers Property market Labour market Product markets Transport market

6. Developers: how much to build where to build Developers: how much to build where to build Firms: (technology) (macro context) investment location recruitment marketing purchasing production Firms: (technology) (macro context) investment location recruitment marketing purchasing production Residents: (demographics) education/training location/housing work car ownership spending Residents: (demographics) education/training location/housing work car ownership spending

8. Dynamics Model is incremental in one year steps so starts from a base year (and an observed database) produces an updated database for each forecast year.

9. The Land Use Model – use of Census data Base year database –households and population –employment –building stocks (housing, commercial) –property values All by zone Very much dependent upon Census material Census is used for –households –population –employment –car ownership –travel to work

10. The Land Use Model – use of Census data Base year database –households and population –employment –building stocks (housing, commercial) –property values All by zone Census is used for –households –population –employment –car ownership –travel to work Key Issue: Land Use Models often use different definitions to those used within the Census Requires processing of data

11. Processing of data - Households Census: Tables UV 65 and UV66 Land Use Model: Range of household categories (single/couple/ 3 plus adults, young/older/retired, with/without children) each split into manual and non-manual Processing: SHS data used to split : i) single non-retired household category ii) divide a census category labelled ‘2 adults and 3 or more children or 3 or more adults and 1 or more children’ to obtain the land use model’s activity ‘three or more adults with children’, Census: Specially commissioned tables from GROS and ONS Processing: No processing required

12. Processing of data - Population Census: Tables CAS004, CAS061 Land Use Model: Children – under 16s Non workers – 16-74 not in employment, not retired Workers – 16-74 in employment Retired – over 75s and 16-74 classed as economically inactive retired Processing: When linking population to households we have used proportions from the SHS to estimate the number of workers/non-workers in each household category

13. Processing of data - Employment Census: UV77 number of jobs in each industrial sector UV78 the occupation split Land Use Model: Employment activity groups based upon Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and Standard Occupation Classification (SOC)...Standard Economic Level Typically split SIC into Manual and Non Manual Processing: i) Split of some categories within UV77 (ie ‘Financial intermediaries ‘into ‘Financial Management’ and ‘Local Financial services’ ii)-to determine the split of manual and non manual ‘higher and intermediate managerial/ administrative/ professional’ and ‘supervisory, clerical, junior managerial/ administrative/ professional’ categories as non manual.

14. Processing of data – Car Ownership Census: CAS062 – car ownership Land Use Model: Proportion of households of each household type owning 0,1 and 2 plus cars Processing: i) Apply Scottish Household Survey based proportions of number of households owning 0,1,2 cars to household data ii) Adjust so that the total number of car owning households is consistent with the Census outpus

15. How can the models assist policy appraisal? Change in population, households, employment etc Influence of wider range of factors: –Where new development is planned –Changes in accessibility Showing the impact of policy – rather than simply a trend Examples from transport and land use planning

16. Appraising transport proposals –model is run with and without the scheme or intervention (1)M74 completion (Glasgow) Applications of Land Use Model

17. 17

18. 18

19. Assessing/appraising land use policy –‘What if’ we have major development in this zone Previous examples –Derby –Greater Manchester LDFs –Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plans –South Lanarkshire Local Plan housing allocations –West Edinburgh development proposals Applications of Land Use Model

20. Concluding Remarks Land Use Models are a powerful tool: –For small area population and employment forecasts – for appraising policy Census data is a key input to the base year –Disaggregated data on population, households, employment Look forward to the publication of 2011 Census material –To revise models –To calibrate models

21. Thank you for your attention! contact details: Andy Dobson 0131 524 9475 Andy.dobson@davidsimmonds.com