1. Just how much delinquency is going on?
Defining/Measuring Juvenile Crime
Trends in Juvenile Delinquency, and Abuse/Neglect
The Danger of Misusing Data

2. Measure of Interest for Juveniles
Non-Delinquent Activity (Status Offenses)
Hard to get reliable information
Self-report probably most accurate
Delinquent Activity (“Crime” for adults)
Same sources of information as for adults, but how to tease out age?
Abuse/Neglect Cases
Official Data very suspect

3. Uniform Crime Reports Best for Serious Offenses/Crime Trends
Offenses Known to police (useless for JD)
Arrests/Crimes Cleared by Arrest Keep information for <18 years
Bias = police discretion& practices, reporting
Serious crimes <bias (discretion, reporting)
Murder most reliable
Downside = only most serious offenders included

4. National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)
National household victimization survey
For juveniles, cannot assess property crime
National Trends for Juvenile Violent Crime can be estimated
Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Forcible Rape (Not Murder)
Upside = dark figure
Downside = know age of offender?

5. Self-Report Surveys
No government sponsored annual national level survey (not used for “trends”)
Many different researchers with national surveys, some longitudinal:
National Youth Survey (NYS)
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)
Monitoring the Future Survey
Best Uses = Correlates of Delinquency
Especial for theory testing, but also race and gender differences

6. Self-Report II The Good The Bad Measure all kinds of correlates
Not subject to “official bias”
The Bad
Difficult to measure serious crime (rare event)
Difficult to get/retain chronic offenders
Therefore, SR surveys tend to measure minor forms of delinquency
Various survey biases (people lie, can’t remember, etc.)

7. What do we know? Current Levels of Delinquency
2001 UCR Arrest Information (<18 years)
2.3 million arrests
Arrests peaked in 1994, and declined thereafter (NCVS follow similar pattern)
Violent Crime Index declined for 7th straight year
Murder rate from down 70%
Self-Report: 20% of 12th Graders report using an illicit drug in past 30 days.

8. Self-Report Example MTF: Use of Pot in Past 30 Days
Percent Using in Past 30 Days

14. What does the NCVS say? Confined to Violent Crime
Unsurprising much violent juvenile offending unreported to police
Average Crime Rate—1980 to 1998
UCR: 5/100,000
NCVS: 44-75/100,000
Why? (From victim survey)
Only 20% reported to police
Of those, only 50% lead to arrest

15. NCVS Crime Trends
The Broad Trend in UCR Violent Crime Index is similar to NCVS (Violent Crimes)
Both decrease in early 1980s, followed by increase from mid-1980s to mid 1990s
Both show substantial drop after mid 1990s
Differences?
NCVS offending drops more (60%) in late 1990s than UCR (27%)

18. Why has juvenile crime declined?
Juveniles have declined in the population?
NO: The proportion of juveniles has been
increasing in the 1990s (echo boomers are coming)
Poverty, Economy, Public Policy?
No clear indications of This
Best Argument I’ve Seen?
Crack Epidemic Produced most of the violence
in…now the drug markets have stabilized

19. “Super Predators”: Ideology and A Fools Errand
John DiIulio et al. Body Count (1996)
Super Predators Thesis
Juvenile crime rates will continue to spiral out of control
By 2010, some 270,000 “SP’s” will wreck havoc on society
TIME Magazine (1996): “Ticking Time Bomb”
Advocated unsealing juvenile records, mandatory minimums, waiver…”get tough”
Legislation Follows (G.W. in Texas)

20. Debate Tips Come prepared Outline major points
Do a timed “practice run”
Prepare handout or slide show
Prepare closing statement

21. Paper Tips ORGANIZE, ORGANIZE, ORGANIZE Use “sub-headings”
DON’T simply cut and paste three papers together
Address issues raised during the debate
Acknowledge/refute opposite position