1. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences

2. George Mason University Climate Dynamics PhD Program Understanding and Predicting Climate and it’s Variability www.climate.gmu.edu Atmospheric Dynamics Physical Oceanography Land-Air Interactions Predictability Climate Modeling

3. The dynamics of climate is an interesting physical problem… Precipitation patterns (December, 1994 mean)

4. The dynamics of climate is an interesting physical problem… Precipitation patterns (December, 1994 mean) affected by atmospheric circulation (schematic of Hadley and other meridional cells)

5. The dynamics of climate is an interesting physical problem… Precipitation patterns (December, 1994 mean) affected by atmospheric circulation (schematic of Hadley and other meridional cells) which is in turn influenced by Sea Surface Temperature (December climatology)

6. ….with serious consequences for humanity. Coping With Climate: Summary and Proposals for Action, www.cip.ogp.noaa.gov/

7. Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMU is relevant to the following questions: How long in advance can El Nino be predicted?

8. Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMU is relevant to the following questions: How long in advance can El Nino be predicted? How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted?

9. Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMU is relevant to the following questions: How long in advance can El Nino be predicted? How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted? How sensitive is the climate to an increase in “greenhouse gases”?

10. Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMU is relevant to the following questions: How long in advance can El Nino be predicted? How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted? How sensitive is the climate to an increase in “greenhouse gases”? What is the role of the ocean in climate change on timescales of years to centuries?

11. Some of the research at COLA/CREW and GMU is relevant to the following questions: How long in advance can El Nino be predicted? How well can the Asian monsoon be predicted? How sensitive is the climate to an increase in “greenhouse gases”? What is the role of the ocean in climate change on timescales of years to centuries? Is the hydrological cycle accelerating?

12. Ed Lorenz J. Shukla Is Climate Predictable?

13. Chaos Sensitive dependence to initial conditions Lorenz showed very simple systems (3 variables) can have very complicated behavior Predictability of weather limited to a few weeks

14. Chaos Sensitive dependence to initial conditions Lorenz showed very simple systems (3 variables) can have very complicated behavior Predictability of weather limited to a few weeks Climate Prediction Time averages may be more predictable Dynamics have ocean and land have longer intrinsic timescales than atmosphere External forcing may also have long timescales: (orbital variations  ice ages CO2 emissions  global warming)

15. Federov and Philander (2000) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

16. Federov and Philander (2000)

17. A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon: ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)

18. A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon: ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) ENSO is the largest single element of global year-to-year variability

19. A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon: ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) ENSO is the largest single element of global year-to-year variability Physics of both atmosphere and ocean essential

20. A Prototypical Climate Phenomenon: ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) ENSO is the largest single element of global year-to-year variability Physics of both atmosphere and ocean essential Internally generated, non-periodic oscillation

21. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.html in East, “cold tongue” of water upwells from below in West, “warm pool” of surface water Normal Winter Conditions, Equatorial Pacific “Walker Circulation” driven by sea surface temperature gradient Thermocline tilt/upwelling driven by westward wind stress Rainy west Dry east

22. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.html El Nino Winter Conditions, Equatorial Pacific warm pool extends across entire Pacific cold tongue disappears weakening of westerlies allows flattens thermocline, weakens upwelling small SST gradient weakens Walker Circulation, moves rainfall

23. Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors) and Pressure (contours) velocity (m/s) Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather Large-scale “Rossby waves” propagate from equator… Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

24. Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors) and Pressure (contours) velocity (m/s) Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather Large-scale “Rossby waves” propagate from equator… …create north-south shifts and other changes in the jet stream… Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

25. Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors) and Pressure (contours) velocity (m/s) Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather Large-scale “Rossby waves” propagate from equator… …create north-south shifts and other changes in the jet stream… …change “storm track”, strongly affecting (for example) U.S. winter weather… Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

26. Upper Troposphere Zonal Wind (colors) and Pressure (contours) velocity (m/s) Equatorial Disturbances Affect Global Weather Large-scale “Rossby waves” propagate from equator… …create north-south shifts and other changes in the jet stream… …change “storm track”, strongly affecting (for example) U.S. winter weather… …also alters global distribution of hurricanes… Based on NCEP Reanalysis data

27. Example of Effects on Society: La Nina/El Nino correlated with devastating Indian flood/drought Krishnamurthy, 2002

28. Can simulate and probe climate with computer models:

29. Sometimes, can capture essential physics with simple analytical models:

30. Sometimes, can capture essential physics with simple analytical models: “Delayed Action Oscillator”

31. Sometimes, can capture essential physics with simple analytical models: Suarez and Schopf, 1988: J. Atmos. Sci. “Delayed Action Oscillator”

32. Sometimes, can capture essential physics with simple analytical models: Suarez and Schopf, 1988: J. Atmos. Sci. “Delayed Action Oscillator”

33. George Mason Climate Dynamics PhD Program benefits from close ties to two centers of IGES (www.iges.org),www.iges.org an independent, nonprofit research institution funded by U.S. government agencies (NSF, NOAA, NASA):

34. George Mason Climate Dynamics PhD Program benefits from close ties to two centers of IGES (www.iges.org),www.iges.org an independent, nonprofit research institution funded by U.S. government agencies (NSF, NOAA, NASA): COLA: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Understanding climate fluctuations on seasonal, interannual, and decadal scales, with special emphasis on the interactions between Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces.

35. George Mason Climate Dynamics PhD Program benefits from close ties to two centers of IGES (www.iges.org),www.iges.org an independent, nonprofit research institution funded by U.S. government agencies (NSF, NOAA, NASA): COLA: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Understanding climate fluctuations on seasonal, interannual, and decadal scales, with special emphasis on the interactions between Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces. CREW: Center for Research on Environment and Water Quantify and predict global water cycle and environmental consequences of earth system variability and change through focused research investments in observation, modeling, and application.

36. A few of our most recent PhD’s: Susan Bates, The role of the annual cycle on the coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Advisors: Shukla/Huang)

37. A few of our most recent PhD’s: Susan Bates, The role of the annual cycle on the coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Advisors: Shukla/Huang) Laura Feudale, Extreme events in Europe and North America during 1950-2003 (Advisors: Shukla/Kinter)

38. A few of our most recent PhD’s: Susan Bates, The role of the annual cycle on the coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Advisors: Shukla/Huang) Laura Feudale, Extreme events in Europe and North America during 1950-2003 (Advisors: Shukla/Kinter) Yuri Vikhliaev, The role of ocean basin modes in excitation of North Pacific decadal variability (Advisor: Schopf)

39. Graduate Application Process Application Deadline for Fall Semester: Feb 1 of Same Year Stipend and tuition support available for qualified applicants Further information: Professor Barry Klinger, Graduate Coordinator e-mail: bklinger@gmu.edu phone: (301) 595-7000 http://climate.gmu.edu http://www.iges.org College of Science George Mason University Fairfax, VA 20030 COLA 4041 Powder Mill Rd, Suite 302 Calverton, MD 20705

40. CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society August 6, 2008

41. CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society This course provides a survey of the scientific and societal issues associated with weather and climate variability and change. The current debate on climate change will be discussed from a scientific point of view, with a focus on those aspects that have the largest potential impact on global society. FALL 2008 CLIM 101 fulfills the General Education Natural Science (non-laboratory) requirement. Instructors: Jagadish Shukla, Jim Kinter and Emilia Jin August 6, 2008

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55. DEFORESTATION NEAR MONTEVERDE

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58. Spy hopping

59. Front fluke