1. National Scrapie Eradication April 2014 Monthly Report National Scrapie Eradication Program Fiscal Year 2014 Report October 1, 2013 to September 30, 2014 U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Veterinary Services Surveillance, Response and Preparedness Services Sheep and Goat Health Center Prepared January 15, 2015

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3. INTRODUCTION The National Scrapie Eradication Program focuses on seven primary areas: Education and prevention Animal identification and compliance Surveillance [Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS) and on-farm] Tracing and testing positive and exposed animals Cleanup of infected and source flocks through genetic susceptibility testing and indemnification of susceptible exposed animals Monitoring of previously infected and exposed flocks The Scrapie Free Flock Certification Program (SFCP) Introduction - Program Summary

4. INTRODUCTION Program Summary At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color was 0.02 percent (Chart 1). This measure of prevalence has decreased by 88 percent since slaughter surveillance started in FY 2003. The scrapie program is now at the “tail end” of the eradication process with few animals found positive during slaughter sampling and the annual variation in the number of animals found positive between years falls within the error of the measurement, given the sample size and 95% confidence limits. As a result there is no statistically significant change in the annual detection rate of scrapie between FY 2013 and 2014 in slaughtered animals. Eight source flocks (including 2 goat herds) and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2013. Three source flocks and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2014 (Chart 2), a decrease of 45 percent. Veterinary Services Reorganization In November 2013, administrative units within APHIS Veterinary Services reorganized from 2 Regions to 6 Districts (Figure 1); some of the table and charts in this report are based on these district divisions. The distribution of sheep and goat populations by District is depicted in Chart 3. Introduction - Program Summary

5. SURVEILLANCE Scrapie Surveillance Initiative To rapidly find the last cases of scrapie and document freedom from scrapie we are asking producers and accredited veterinarians to report sheep or goats showing signs of scrapie and to collect and submit samples from dead or euthanized sheep/goats over 18 months of age. More information on how to report clinical animals and to submit samples is available on the APHIS Scrapie WebsiteAPHIS Scrapie Website. State Sampling Minimums The National Scrapie Eradication Program establishes annual sheep sampling minimums for each State, and tracks the States’ level of compliance with meeting these minimums. These State minimums were implemented in FY 2010 to ensure adequate geographical representation, so that APHIS can find the last remaining cases and document freedom from scrapie. State sampling minimums are established based on the population demographics of mature sheep in each State. Since FY2011, the program has also proposed annual State sampling minimums for goats. The calculations used to derive the sampling minimums are described in the National Scrapie Surveillance PlanNational Scrapie Surveillance Plan. Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1)

6. SURVEILLANCE The State sampling minimums for sheep and goats, and the percentage of sampling minimum obtained by State of Animal ID for each District are listed in in the following tables; A State’s percentage is based on the total number of sheep and total number of goats sampled through Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS) and on-farm surveillance. Figure 2 and Figure 3 are graphic representations of the percentage of the sampling minimum for sheep and for goats that was achieved by each State in FY 2014. District 1Table 1District 4Table 4 District 2Table 2District 5Table 5 District 3Table 3District 6Table 6 Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

7. SURVEILLANCE Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1) Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS) RSSS started April 1, 2003. It is a targeted slaughter surveillance program which is designed to identify infected flocks. Samples have been collected from 443,738 animals since April 1, 2003. There have been 474 NVSL confirmed positive animals (466 classical cases and 8 Nor98-like cases) since the beginning of RSSS. 45,826 samples were collected in FY 2014, 8,130 of which were from goats. Collection sites by state are shown in Figure 4. The number of animals collected for FY 2014 by District where collected is shown in Chart 4. A monthly comparison of RSSS collections by fiscal year is displayed in Chart 5. Percent of RSSS samples collected by face color and species from FY 2003 through FY 2014 is plotted in Chart 6. 2 white-faced and 3 black- faced sheep tested positive for scrapie in FY 2014. Chart 7 and Chart 8 show the percent of samples that have tested positive for each face color from FY 2003 through 2014; Chart 1 shows the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color. Positive animals from the same flock and Nor98-like cases are not included in these charts. A retrospective 6 month rolling average of the percent positive, black-faced sheep sampled at RSSS collections sites is shown in Chart 9. Success in tracing RSSS positive animals to flock of origin is shown in Chart 10. Changes in traceability are not statistically significant due to the small numbers of cases.

8. SURVEILLANCE Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1) On-Farm Surveillance Testing of animals in the field has always been part of scrapie surveillance (regulatory field cases and live-animal testing). As the National Scrapie Eradication Program moves closer towards meeting the goal of identifying the last remaining cases of classical scrapie by 2017, finding and testing all sheep and goats meeting targeted sampling criteria is even more important. 1,739 sheep and 639 goats were tested on-farm for FY 2014. In FY 2014, sixteen sheep and 10 goats tested positive for scrapie; 3 of the 10 positive goats tested positive at a quarantined research facility after removal from the herd. The number of animals tested on-farm by month and by species for FY 2014 is shown in Chart 11. Total Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing 48,204 animals were sampled for scrapie testing in FY 2014: 45,826 RSSS samples and 2,378 on-farm samples [includes regulatory testing (necropsy and live-animal) and on-farm surveillance] (Chart 12); Of which 39,435 were sheep and 8,769 were goats. Distribution of sampling by type (RSSS or on-farm) and by species is shown in Chart 13.

9. SCRAPIE POSITIVE CASES Samples collected through RSSS from 2 white-faced and 3 black-faced sheep tested positive in FY 2014. The flock of origin of the first white-faced RSSS positive sheep (reported in November 2013) was designated a source flock; 15 additional sheep (Finn sheep) from this flock tested positive for scrapie (Table 7 and Figure 5). The second white-faced RSSS positive sheep was reported in May 2014; the genotype of this animal was AVQR, a rare genotype for positive sheep in the United States. The flock of origin was designated source, and a mottled-face sheep from this flock tested positive in September; the genotype of this animal was also AVQR. The most recent black-faced positive (reported in September 2014) was traced to the flock of origin. The flock of origin could not be determined for 2 black-faced RSSS positive sheep (reported in April, these sheep were from the same slaughter consignment and so likely originated from the same flock). Ten goats from the same herd tested positive in FY 2014; 7 were tested on-farm and 3 were later tested at a quarantined research facility. The positive goats were commingled with sheep in a previously identified infected flock. The total number of confirmed positive cases in goats since FY 2002 is 39. The most recent cases were reported in February 2014. (Table 7 and Figure 6).

10. INFECTED AND SOURCE FLOCKS At the beginning of FY 2014, there were 9 flocks with open infected or source statuses (Table 8 and Figure 7). During the year, 3 new source flocks and 3 new infected flocks were reported (Figure 8); 9 flocks completed a clean-up plan and were released (Figure 9). At the end of 2014, 4 scrapie-infected and source flocks had open statuses (Figure 10). New infected and source statuses from FY 1997 to FY 2014 are shown in Chart 2. Indemnity Approximately 643 (560 sheep and 83 goats) sheep and goats were indemnified in FY 2014. A breakdown by species and registration status is depicted on Chart 14. The average cost for indemnity and disposal was approximately $212 per animal. Introduction – Positive Cases and New Infected/Source Flocks

11. SCRAPIE FLOCK CERTIFICATION PROGRAM (SFCP) At the end of FY 2014, there were 455 flocks participating in the Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP). Statuses of these flocks were 177 export monitored, 18 export certified, and 260 select monitored flocks (Figure 11). SFCP open statuses by fiscal year from FY 1997 to FY 2014 are depicted in Chart 15. The current version of the SFCP standards was published June 20, 2013. A copy of the standards can be downloaded from APHIS’ SFCP Web Page Note: In June 2013, the Complete Monitored category of the SFCP was eliminated. Flocks with “Complete Monitored” and “Certified” status had the option of converting to the “Export” category or “Select” category. The flocks listed as “Certified” on the APHIS website concurrently hold Export Monitored status, and are working toward Export Certified status. This report is based on information and test results available at the time of report generation. Numbers are subject to change due to later reporting of test results and updates in the database. Introduction – Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

12. Sheep and Goat Herds in Scrapie National Database Compared to NASS 2012 Census Data Figure 12 and Figure 13 are maps showing the percent of sheep and goat flocks/herds by state that have been assigned premises/flock identification numbers in the scrapie database. This report is based on information and test results available at the time of report generation. Numbers are subject to change due to later reporting of test results and updates in the database. Introduction – Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

13. Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from the same flock. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011). (Chart 1) Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Weighted by Face Color Fiscal Years 2003 to 2014

14. (Chart 2) Infected and Source Flocks New Statuses by Year - Fiscal Years 1997 to 2014

15. WY WV WI WA VT VI VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PR PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL District One District Two District Three District Four District Five District Six (Figure 1) Surveillance Preparedness and Response Services (SPRS) Districts

16. Total Sheep and Goat Populations by VS District FY 2014* (Chart 3) * Source: NASS Sheep and Goat January 31, 2014. ** Excludes sheep and goats residing in the Navajo Nation. Sheep Goats

17. FY 2014 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 1 (Table 1) WV VT VA RI PA NY NJ NH NC ME MD MA DE CT Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Connecticut 3184%5560% Delaware 5200%3133% Maine 61133%6233% Maryland 14345%14221% Massachusetts 67110%8300% New Hampshire 42202%4100% New Jersey 8769%1136% New York 420160%431633% North Carolina 150236%8396% Pennsylvania 580110%62621% Rhode Island 7100%1 Vermont 82133%7457% Virginia 560109%79197% West Virginia 220167%27178%

18. FY 2014 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 2 (Table 2) TN SC GA FL AL Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Alabama 105171%49339% Florida 77104%6594% Georgia 7097%73175% South Carolina 41146%50220% Tennessee 210693%131145%

19. FY 2014 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 3 (Table 3) WI OH MN MI KY INIL IA Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Illinois 350373%158285% Indiana 370528%462024% Iowa 590480%59332% Kentucky 270279%81644% Michigan 430626%183126% Minnesota 588356%43188% Ohio 587504%451102% Wisconsin 530301%72119%

20. FY 2014 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 4 (Table 4) TX OK MS LA AR MO Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Arkansas 9883%49520% Louisiana 52131%2688% Mississippi 54113%34185% Missouri 530132%103850% Oklahoma 44077%120281% Texas 597181%59751%

21. FY 2014 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 5 (Table 5) WY SD NE ND MT KS ID Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Idaho 593146%20420% Kansas 330116%42355% Montana 593356%11645% Nebraska 53093%22427% North Dakota 440184%4325% South Dakota 594587%10190% Wyoming 595236%61033%

22. WA UT OR NV NM HI CO CA AZ AK FY 2014 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 6 (Table 6) Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2014 Percent of Minimum Obtained Alaska 5 60% 1 0% Arizona 188 21% 18 678% California 596 181% 589 41% Colorado 593 218% 286 100% Hawaii 92 54% 14 43% Nevada 500 51% 12 725% New Mexico 264 47% 15 333% Oregon 591 278% 46 343% Utah 595 151% 15 347% Washington 330 155% 218 71%

23. (Figure 2) WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 100% > 100% Percent of Sampling Minimum Achieved in FY 2014—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Sheep

24. (Figure 3) WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 100% > 100% Percent of Sampling Minimum Achieved in FY 2014—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Goats

25. WY WV WI WA VT VI VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PR PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CO CA AZ AR AK AL District One District Two District Three District Four District Five District Six (Figure 4) RSSS Sample Collections FY 2014 177 collection sites in 41 states v v NH MA CT States with RSSS collection sites

26. Total Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by VS District Where Collected FY 2014 (Chart 4) Sheep Goats

27. (Chart 5) Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by Month Fiscal Years 2010 to 2014 Month * Surveillance numbers were significantly lower October 2013 compared to October in prior FYs because the furlough reduced the number of collection days.

28. 28 * Includes gray, red, and unknown face color; and hair sheep. Chart includes animals collected for RSSS & CSPS. % Black of mottled-faced sheep available since FY 2009 Surveillance Samples Collected at Slaughter FY 2003 – 2014 (Chart 6)

29. Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from same flock. Mottled- and white-faced combined. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011). (Chart 7) Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - By Face Color - Fiscal Year (2003 – 2014)

30. (Chart 8) Percent of RSSS Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie by Face Color during each Fiscal Year (2008 – 2014)

31. Includes only sheep with test results reported. Includes multiple positives from same flock. (Chart 9) Retrospective 6 Month Rolling Average of Percent Classical Scrapie Positive Black-Faced Cull Sheep Sampled at Slaughter

32. * April – September, 2003 (Chart 10) Average % Traceable FY03-FY13 84% Average % Traceable FY03-FY13 84% Investigations of RSSS Positive Animals FY 2003* – FY 2014

33. On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Month and Species - FY 2014 (Chart 11)

34. Number of Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing by Quarter - FY 2014 (Chart 12) * Includes all regulatory testing (necropsy and live-animal) and on-farm surveillance.

35. (Chart 13) RSSS and On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Species - FY 2014

36. (Table 7) Scrapie Confirmed Cases in FY 2014 STATE SHEEPGOATS RSSSOn-FarmRSSSOn-Farm IA0007 #7 # IL1000 NY0100 OH11400 VA1100 Untraceable2000 TOTAL ALL STATES 51607 #7 # # 3 additional goats from the IA herd later tested positive at a quarantined research facility.

37. * All goats, associated with a previously-identified infected sheep flock (FY13). # 3 additional goats from the IA herd later tested positive at a quarantined research facility. 1/15 Scrapie Confirmed Cases FY 2014 37 Untraceable: 2 WY WV WI WA VT UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 1/14 NY 1 NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN IL 1 ID IA* 7 # HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 5) Type of Scrapie RSSSField Cases Total Classical52328 (Nor98-like)(0) Total52328 VA 1/1

38. WY WV WIWI WA 1 VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 5 NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI 6 ME MD – 2 MA LA KY KS IN IL 1 ID IA* 7 # HI GA FL DE CT CO 3 CA 13 AZ 1 AR AK AL (Figure 6) Scrapie Cases in Goats FY 2002 – FY 2014 Type of Scrapie RSSSField Cases Total Classical039 (Nor98-like)(0) Total039 * Most recent herd with a scrapie positive confirmed goat identified in February 2014. # 3 additional goats from the IA herd later tested positive at a quarantined research facility.

39. Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks FY 2014 Overview Infected/Source flocks with an open status at the start of FY 2014 9 New Infected/Source flocks in FY 2014 6 Infected/Source flocks released in FY 2014 9 Infected/Source flocks currently with an open status at the end of FY 2014 4 (Table 8) * Infected status reopened on previously reported infected flock because flock plan was not completed.

40. WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA - 1 OR 1 OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD - 1 MA LA KY - 1 KS IN IL 2 ID IA 2 HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ 1 AR AK AL Open source flocks—8 Open infected flocks—1 Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open Statuses as of October 1, 2013 (Figure 7)

41. WY WV WI WA VT VA 1 UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 1 NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN IL 1 ID IA 3 HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 8) New infected flocks—3 New source flocks—3 New Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks - FY 2014 MD

42. WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR 1 OK OH 1 NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY-1 KS IN IL ID IA 5 HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ 1 AR AK AL (Figure 9) Flocks released—9 Released Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks FY 2014

43. WY WV WI WA VT VA 1 UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN IL 2 ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 1* CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 10) Open source flocks—3 Open infected flocks—1 Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open Statuses as of September 30, 2014 MD * Infected status reopened on previously reported infected flock because flock plan was not completed.

44. Registered and Club Goats 0.5% Nonregistered Sheep 87% Registered and Club Sheep 0.2% Nonregistered Goats 12% Total number of animals indemnified: 643 (560 sheep and 83 goats) Total amount spent: indemnification and disposal $136,585.03 The average cost: $212 per animal. (Chart 14) Indemnity Claims FY 2014

45. Scrapie Flock Certification Program: Participating Flocks Total Enrolled Flocks--455 Export Monitored—177 Export Certified—18 Selective Monitored—260 WY 6 WV 2 WI 20 WA 14 VA 3 UT 4 TX 0 TN-11 SD 6 SC 15 RI-2 PA 47 OR 15 OK 4 OH 3 NY 6 NV 1 NM 3 NJ-11 NE 6 ND 1 NC-16 MT 5 MS 12 MO 2 MN 6 MI 8 ME 22 MD-2 MA-8 LA 7 KY-16 KS 6 IN 31 IL 7 ID 9 IA 6 HI 20 GA 16 FL 17 DE-0 CT-12 CO 1 CA 8 AZ 1 AR 0 AK 1 AL 10 VT 18 NH-7 (Figure 11)

46. SFCP Participating Flocks by Fiscal Year - FY 1997 to FY 2014 46 * The Complete Monitored category (including Certified flocks) was discontinued June 10, 2013. (Chart 15)

47. (Figure 12) Percent of Sheep Flocks Reported by NASS (2012 Census Report) Assigned Flock Identification Numbers WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 100% > 100%

48. (Figure 13) Percent of Goat Herds Reported by NASS (2012 Census Report) Assigned Flock Identification Numbers ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 100% > 100% WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL