1. INFO 7470/ECON 7400/ILRLE 7400 Measuring Business and Economic Activity John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber with contributions by Jim Davis, Brent Moulton and Wayne Gray February 18, 2013

2. Outline Structure of the economic statistics in the U.S. The National Income and Product Accounts Industry and Product Classification Input/Output Tables The Economic Census The Business Register Economic Surveys 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 2

3. Economic Statistics in the U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration – Census Bureau Economic Censuses Annual, Quarterly, Monthly Surveys of Sectors and Indicators NAICS, NAPCS – Bureau of Economic Analysis Inputs from Census + BLS + Fed + many other sources National accounts, International trade, Regional accounts, Industry accounts, Financial accounts, Integrated accounts Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics – Wage, salary, compensation, prices, productivity 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 3

4. What are the National Accounts? One of the most watched sets of statistics worldwide Standards developed by many national statistical agencies Simon Kuznets was awarded the 1971 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his development of national income accounting http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1971/http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1971/ The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) are a set of economic accounts that track economic flows within the U.S. economy Two key NIPA measures are: – Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Measures the total value of goods and services produced within the U.S. in a period – Gross Domestic Income (GDI): Measures the incomes earned and the costs incurred in producing those goods and services http://bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 4

5. The Circular Flow Households Businesses Goods and services Labor Income Expenditures 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 5

6. NIPA Seven-account Summary Domestic Income and Product Account Private Enterprise Income Account Personal Income and Outlay Account Government Receipts and Expenditures Account Foreign Transactions Current Account Domestic Capital Account Foreign Transactions Capital Account 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 6

7. GDP As Value Added Value added is measured as: Output less intermediate consumption Both measured at market prices Example: Wheat to flour to bread to you – GDP is value of bread – Equals sum of value added of farmer, miller, baker, grocery store GDP – Sum of industry value added – Also equals sum of final expenditures – Also equals sum of income earned in production 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 7

8. Detail of Bread Example 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 8

9. Account 1: Domestic Income and Product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Compensation of employees, paid Taxes on production and imports Less: Subsidies Net operating surplus Consumption of fixed capital Gross Domestic Income Gross Domestic Product 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 9

10. Expenditure components of GDP (2012) GDP = C + I + G + X - M = GDP 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 10

11. Account 1: Domestic Income and Product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Compensation of employees, paid Taxes on production and imports Less: Subsidies Net operating surplus Consumption of fixed capital Gross domestic income Statistical discrepancy Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 11

12. Income Components of GDP (2012) = GDP 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 12

13. Account 1: Value Added Equivalence Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Value added by business Value added by households and institutions Value added by government Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 13

14. Value Added Components of GDP (2012) = GDP 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 14

15. Features of national accounts Inflation-adjusted (“real” GDP) Quarterly frequency Seasonally adjusted Annualized 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 15

16. Estimation Cycle “Advance” estimates are released about 3 1 / 2 weeks after a calendar quarter concludes “Preliminary” and “final” estimates are released 30 and 60 days after the advance 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 16

17. Annual Revisions and Benchmarking “Annual revisions” are released in July of non- comprehensive revision years “Comprehensive revisions” occur about every 4-5 years (most recent: 2010) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 17

18. Featured Measures Real GDP growth, as indicated by the percent change in the chain-type quantity index Contributions to real GDP growth reflect the role that individual components of GDP play in producing the growth in GDP Gross domestic purchases price index (and personal consumption expenditures price index)—inflation measures that reflect prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 18

19. Other Important GDP-related Measures Current-dollar GDP represents the value of production at a point in time GDP percentage shares provide a measure of the size and importance of a component 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 19

20. Chained-Dollar GDP Chained-dollar GDP is the product of current- dollar GDP in the reference year and the GDP quantity index (divided by 100) Chained-dollar components do not add to the total See “Chained-Dollar Indexes” from the November 2003 Survey of Current Business 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 20

21. NBER Recessions Real GDP growth 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 21

23. Source Data: Economic Census Primary source data for benchmark input- output accounts – Estimates supply of products by industry and use of products by industry and final expenditures – Critical because it provides details necessary to separate intermediate consumption from final expenditures http://www.bea.gov/industry/io_annual.htm 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 23

24. Annual Survey Source Data Annual Retail Trade Survey – Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for goods; inventories Services Annual Survey – PCE services Annual Survey of Manufactures – Investment in equipment; inventories Value of construction put in place – structures Annual Trade Survey – inventories Foreign trade data Government Finances Survey 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 24

25. Example: Equipment Investment “Commodity flow” method: ASM data on shipments of detailed durable goods product categories Subtract those going to intermediate uses Add imports: “domestic supply” Subtract goods going to exports, government, PCE Add margins Result is estimate of private investment in equipment 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 25

26. Example: Retail Trade Sales by retail industry Merchandise lines (products) data by industry from last economic census Estimate products, controlling the total to total retail sales for categories selling primarily to consumers Deflate using detailed CPIs Result is estimate of PCE for goods 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 26

27. Quarterly Source Data Census indicator surveys: Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3): shipments and inventories for equipment investment, manufacturing inventories Monthly retail trade for PCE goods, retail inventories Wholesale trade inventories Value put in place for structures Foreign trade data 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 27

28. Data Issues Business births may not be promptly captured or included in samples. Non-participation in voluntary surveys may be problem – Economic Census is mandatory – Annual, quarterly and monthly surveys are not Respondents may not follow instructions. – Example: may report worldwide shipments or inventories 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 28

29. Diagnosing Data Problems Statistical discrepancy is high level indicator of problems Monitor revisions: persistent large revisions or revisions in the same direction Research on data issues 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 29

30. The Economic Census and Business Register Overview of provenance Economic Census Methods Classifications Business Register Record structure Identifiers Creating establishment analysis files Creating Company (Alpha) Files Using bridges to other data 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 30

31. 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 31

32. Economic Census (EC) 2012 Target population – Employer and non-employer establishments in covered industries (essentially everything except agriculture and government) Methods – Large employers and a sample of small employers covered by mail questionnaire – Remaining establishments estimated from administrative records (mostly tax returns) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 32

33. Methods for the Economic Census The EC is a mandatory survey of business establishments Because sampling is used for small entities in all industries, it is not technically an enumeration Main objective is to capture information needed to measure business volume (sales) and operations in detail that permits – Frame updating for the Business Register and business sampling frames – Intermediate goods consumption in support of value added concepts for the national accounts 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 33

34. Economic Activity Classifications North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ – Updated for each Census since 1997 (2002, 2007, 2012) – Jointly maintained by the U.S. Economic Classification Policy Committee (OMB, BEA, BLS, Census) – Main classification system for economic activity – Sectors, Sub-sectors (3-digits), Industry groups (4-digits), Industry (5-digits), Country-specific codes for U.S., Canada, Mexico (6-digits) North American Product Classification System – Within each NAICS classifies the products produced in trilateral (all three countries) or country-specific – Still in development 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 34

35. Economic Census Files in RDC * Not in RDC data warehouse ** Included in Services *** 2012 in the field https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/economicdata.html Industry 1963 1967197219771982198719921997200220072012 CMIMining XXXXX*** CCNConstruction XXXXXXXX*** CMFManufacturing XXXXXXXXX*** CUTTransportation and Utilities XXXXX*** CWHWholesale XXXXXXX*** CRTRetail XXXXXXX*** CFIFinance, Insurance and Real Estate XXXX*** CSRServices XXXXXXX*** AUXAuxiliaries XXXXX** 2/18/2013INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution35

36. Questionnaires and Procedures 1997 Economic Census forms http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/ec97form.html http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/ec97form.html 2002 and 2007 Economic Census forms http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/pages/formarchive.html http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/pages/formarchive.html 2012 Economic Census forms http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/php/census-form.php http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/php/census-form.php History of the 1997 Economic Census http://www.census.gov/prod/ec97/pol00-hec.pdf http://www.census.gov/prod/ec97/pol00-hec.pdf Procedural history of the 2002 Economic Census http://www.census.gov/prod/ec02/ec02-00r-hist.pdf http://www.census.gov/prod/ec02/ec02-00r-hist.pdf History and archive of the 2007 Economic Census http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/history.html http://www.census.gov/econ/census07/www/methodology/history.html Operational guide to the 2012 Economic Census http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/index.html http://bhs.econ.census.gov/ec12/index.html 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 36

37. Employer Business Register (BR) Target Population: – Employer establishments in the same industries as are covered by the Economic Census Methods: – Continuously updated database of establishments divided into multi-unit and single-unit businesses 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 37

38. Maintenance of the BR Businesses are classified based on whether or not they have multiple establishments as of the last Economic Census (MU and SU, resp.) Currently approximately 160,000 MU companies with 1.8 million affiliated establishments; 5 million SU establishments; 21 million non-employer businesses 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 38

39. Maintenance of the BR II Known MU companies surveyed in the Report of Organization Survey to update structure between Economic Censuses “Discovered” MU companies (respondents to surveys) added to ROS frame between censuses Weekly updates by Employer Identification Number from business income tax returns and information reports – SU: used directly – MU: allocated based on information from the ROS 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 39

40. Record Structure Economic Census – All establishments whether from mail questionnaire or administrative record – Separate files for Construction, Manufactures, Mining, Retail Trade, Services, (Transportation, Communications, and Utilities), Wholesale Trade – Example files are from Census of Manufactures 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 40

41. Record Structure Employer Business Register Single-units (SU) – One record for each single unit establishment – One record, called a submaster, for each multiunit company Employer Business Register Multi-units (MU) – One record for each establishment for each multi-unit – Report of Organization Survey http://bhs.econ.census.gov/2002forms/nc99002.pdf (2002) http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/cos/form.html (most recent) http://bhs.econ.census.gov/2002forms/nc99002.pdfhttp://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/cos/form.html 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 41

42. Identifiers Entity Identifiers – Census File Number (CFN) – Employer Identification Number (EC: EI; BR: EIN) – Permanent Plant Number (PPN) – LBD number (LBDNUM) (LBD-version specific) – Census Alpha (EC: EIALPHA; BR: derived) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 42

43. Census File Number (CFN) Used for both the EC and BR as the sort order and main index for the file Always Character 10 ($10.) For Single-units – First character “0” – Last 9 characters Federal Employer Identification Number (EIN) For Multi-units – First character nonzero – First six characters Census Alpha – Last four characters establishment ID 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 43

44. Employer Identification Number Taxable (legal) entity identifier Always Character 9 ($9.) For SUs, equivalent to CFN and unique For MUs, applies to the owning entity – An Alpha (see below) may be associated with multiple EINs 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 44

45. Permanent Plant Number Longitudinal link based on CFN Always Character 10 ($10.) Quality improves since inception in 1982 Longitudinal links from Longitudinal Business Database are preferable (LBDNUM) (Jarmin and Miranda) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 45

46. Census Alpha Identifies the business that owns (50% or greater interest) the establishment for MUs EC and BR-SU – Character 6 ($6.) and never has a leading 0 – Called EIALPHA BR-MU – Character 10 ($10.) – Called ALPHA Used to construct enterprise-level entities 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 46

47. Business Register Redesign 2002 Business Register redesigned SURVU_ID replaced CFN SURVU_TYPE – MU/SU – ARU = Alternative reporting unit – SBM = EIN level reporting File Structure – Base/Misc – Line/Trailer – line code (LCODE) observations Historical identifiers (e.g., CFN, PPN) carried forward for continuers Newer versions of microdata have LBDNUM 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 47

48. Identifiers Geography Identifiers – State identifiers – County identifiers – City identifiers – Full Census geography (BR only) Activity Identifiers – Industry Codes (NAICS, SIC) – Product Codes 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 48

49. Geography Identifiers EC and BR – State (Census and FIPS) – County (Census and FIPS) – Consolidate Metropolitan Statistical Area (FIPS) BR only – Census Block – Zip – County Business Patterns Geography 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 49

50. Geography Identifiers Contemporaneous geographic definitions Virginia city-counties 2/18/2013INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution50

51. County Changes Since 1977 La Paz, Arizona (created 1983) back into Yuma – replace fips=4027 if fips==4012 Cibola, New Mexico (created 1981) back into Valencia – replace fips=35061 if fips==35006 Washabaugh, South Dakota (merged 1979) back into Jackson – replace fips=46071 if fips==46131 St. Genevieve, Missouri renumbered in 1982 – replace fips=29186 if fips==29193 Muskogee, Georgia renumbered in 1982 – replace fips=13215 if fips==13510 Denver 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 51

52. Activity Identifiers NAICS (2002, 2007, 2012) – Full U.S. Industry code (Char 6) – Derived industry codes SIC – Full 1987 SIC (6-digits to product class code) Contemporaneous industry definitions NAICS to SIC bridge codes – McKinney (see Assignment) – Klimek and Fort 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 52

53. RDC 1997, 2002 and 2007 NAICS Sector Files 2/18/201353 NAICS SectorsRDC 1997/2002/2007 Files 31-33CMF (Manufactures) 22, 48-49CUT (Utilities) 42CWH (Wholesale) 44-45, 72CRT (Retail) 51, 54, 56, 61, 62, 71, 81CSR (Services) 52, 53CFI (FIRE) 55CSR in 2002 2007 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution

54. Finding Active Entities EC – Use sample weight (WT>0) BR-SU – Exclude submasters (PDIV=“M”) – Payroll or employment positive (see example) BR-MU – Exclude ghosts (ACT=“G”) – Payroll or employment positive (see example) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 54

55. Creating Custom Entities Establishment-level files – EC: natural organization – BR-SU: exclude submaster records – BR-MU: exclude ghosts Company-level files – EC: use EIALPHA to find related establishments – BR: create compatible ALPHA10 in SU to get information on submasters to link to establishments on MU Pseudo-establishments – Combine establishments based on EIN, geography and activity 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 55

56. 2/18/2013 Variety of Uses Population Census = size of population? Economic Census = size of economy? Aggregate economic growth Published disaggregation – Industry, Geography, Plant size Also confidential micro-data Public Policy topics (and academic) INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 56

57. 2/18/2013 Business Surveys and Research Tools The Annual Survey of Manufactures The Longitudinal Research Database Other business burveys National Income and Product Accounts Industry-level Research Plant-level Research INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 57

58. 2/18/2013 ASM Overview Nature of the survey Sampling frame and plan Documentation ASM data in RDCs INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 58

59. Basic ASM Concepts “manufactures,” not “manufacturers” manufacture (plural: manufactures) – The making of goods or wares by manual labor or by machinery, especially on a large scale. – The making of producing of something; generation – the thing manufactured – (Webster's College Dictionary, 1996) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 59

60. Nature of the Survey To provide key intercensal measures of manufacturing activity, products, and location for the public and private sectors Best measure of current U.S. manufacturing industry outputs, inputs, and operating status 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 60

61. 2/18/2013 ASM Essentials The Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) provides sample estimates of statistics for all manufacturing establishments with one or more paid employee The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the ASM in each of the 4 years between the economic census which is collected for years ending in 2 and 7 The economic census - manufacturing is the sample frame from which the ASM is chosen and presents more detailed data than the ASM Both input and output measures collected http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/ INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 61

62. Target Population All manufacturing establishments with one or more paid employees Multi-activity locations are broken into separate “establishments,” at the discretion of the reporting entity, “if the plant records permit such a separation and if the activities are substantial in size” Exclusions: – Central administrative offices – Non-employers 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 62

63. Sampling Frame and Plan Frame population: Economic Census of Manufactures in the 2 and 7 years Sample is drawn in the 3 and 8 years, then used for five consecutive years (4-8 and 9-3) – This means that a component of any Census of Manufactures is the ASM sample, which was drawn from a frame population based on the previous EC – Supplemental frame of new establishments is used to refresh sample between ECs Base sample is a multistage probability sample with large establishments sampled with probability one (self-representing) Consequence: a component of any Census of Manufactures is the ASM sample, which was drawn from a frame population based on the previous CM Refreshing: Supplemental frame of new establishments is used to refresh sample between CMs There have been many significant redesigns of the ASM sample Historical information is in McGuckin and Pascoe (CES WP 88-2) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 63

64. 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 64

65. Frame Maintenance ASM Between Economic Censuses – Internal Revenue Service administrative records (=> Business Register updates, Register-based statistics) are used to include new single-unit manufacturers – Report of Organization Survey (administered simultaneously) identifies new establishments of multi-unit firms – Manufacturers’ Classification Survey identifies kinds of business 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 65

66. Sampling Method Sampling method: – ~ 15,000 establishments with certainty (about 67% of total value of shipments in 2007) – ~ 35,000 establishments with probability proportional to a composite measure of establishment size (.05 to 1.00 in 2007) http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/how_the_data_are _collected/index.html 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 66

67. Survey Content Employment Payroll Value added by manufacture Cost of materials consumed Value of shipments Detailed new capital expenditures, Supplemental labor costs Fuels and electric energy used Inventories by stage of fabrication 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 67

68. 2/18/2013 Documentation Questionnaire – http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/asm/form.html http://bhs.econ.census.gov/bhs/asm/form.html Publications: – http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/ http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/ Purpose: measure size of aggregate economy and individual industries, compute components for the National Income and Product Accounts INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 68

69. ASM Uses Official publications: – Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries – Value of Product Shipments – Geographic area statistics (by state) Publications: last for 2005 data http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/am0531gs1.pdf http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/am0531gs1.pdf Tabular data (replaces printed publication since 2006 data) http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchre sults.xhtml?refresh=t#none http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchre sults.xhtml?refresh=t#none Documentation/methods http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/definitions/in dex.html http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/definitions/in dex.html 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 69

70. 2/18/2013 ASM Uses (continued) Microdata analysis in RDCs Documentation at: https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/ec onomicdata.html http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/d efinitions/index.html https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/ec onomicdata.html http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/asm/d efinitions/index.html Annual Survey of Manufactures data available at RDCs for 1973 to 2011 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 70

71. Linkages to the ASM Data elements: – By CFN – By name – By EIN – By location Dimensions – To CM – To other surveys – Across time (LRD, LBD) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 71

72. 2/18/2013 Longitudinal Business Database LBD Historical Longitudinal Research Database (LRD) – Longitudinal integration of ASM and CM (Census of Manufactures) data Linking the LRD to other data Using the LRD in RDCs The LBD and ILBD INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 72

73. 2/18/2013 Why Longitudinal (LRD)? Follow entities over time Total Factor Productivity growth Growth accounting method TFP growth = output growth – input growth Capital stock Perpetual inventory method (investment flows, depreciation rate) Example: Becker & Grey (2005) http://www.nber.org/data/nbprod2005.html INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 73

74. 2/18/2013 Longitudinal Integration of ASM/CM Described in detail in McGuckin and Pascoe http://www.census.gov/econ/overview/ma0800.html http://www.census.gov/econ/overview/ma0800.html Large establishments have a different dynamic pattern than small establishments due to sample design (self-representing vs. sampled) Consistent variable definitions http://www.census.gov/econ/overview/ma0800.html http://www.census.gov/econ/overview/ma0800.html INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 74

75. 2/18/2013 Linking the LRD to Other Data Establishment identifiers are provided, can link to other Census-collected datasets Some links to non-Census data already exist (Compustat, EPA data, ES-202) Other links are accomplished by using the Business Register and record linking software A more extensive set of links is available using the Longitudinal Business Database (discussed later) INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 75

76. 2/18/2013 Using the LRD in RDCs LRD includes ASM and CM data LRD is requested by requesting the appropriate years of ASM and CM (“Longitudinal” part comes from the establishment-specific linkages included in the CES-based versions of the ASM and CM data files) INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 76

77. 2/18/2013 Extension to LBD and ILBD Longitudinal Business Database (1976-2010) https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/datasets/lbd.html https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/datasets/lbd.html Improved longitudinal linkages Extended to non-manufacturing – May be non-establishment aggregates – Fewer data variables available – Less annual data available – Will be treated extensively later in the course Integrated Longitudinal Business Database (ILBD) – Includes non-employer businesses – There are holes and research issues INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 77

78. Overview LBD Jarmin & Miranda (2002) CES-WP-02-17 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstr act_id=2128793 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstr act_id=2128793 Improved longitudinal linkages – Based on the Business Register only – Fixes broken linkages using probabilistic matching based on name and location – (similar data in other countries is often linked by worker flows only, see LEHD data later in the course for similar linkages) 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 78

79. Additional Benefits/Costs LBD Linkage to ASM, CM, other surveys Extended to non-manufacturing – May be non-establishment aggregates – Fewer data variables available – Less annual data available 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 79

80. Supreme Benefit of LBD A synthetic version is available outside the RDC http://www2.vrdc.cornell.edu/news/data/lbd- synthetic-data/ http://www2.vrdc.cornell.edu/news/data/lbd- synthetic-data/ Kinney et al. (2011) http://www.census.gov/ces/pdf/CES-WP-11- 04.pdfhttp://www.census.gov/ces/pdf/CES-WP-11- 04.pdf 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 80

81. Key identifier: LBDNUM LBDNUM is a time-consistent identifier Not permanent: is readjusted with every release of newer LBD data Available in other economic Census data (CFI/CUT/CWH/CSR/CRT) – “The variables LBDNUM_200500, LBDNUM_C200907, and LBDNUM_C201002 indicate the LBDNUMs that can be linked to the C200500, C200907, and C201002 versions of the LBD. The variable LBDNUM … [links to] the latest version of the LBD” 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 81

82. 2/18/2013 Other Business Data Censuses of Construction, Finance (FIRE), Manufactures, Mining, Retail Trade, Services, Transportation Communication and Utilities (CUT), Wholesale Trade Linking tools: Compustat, IRS Form 5500 (pension and benfit plans), LBD, ILBD, Ownership Change Database, Business Register https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/economicdata.html INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 82

83. 2/18/2013 Other Business Data II Establishment Surveys – ASM – Current Industrial Reports (from the Energy Information Administration) – Medical Expenditure Panel (from AHRQ) – National Employer Survey (from Department of Education) – Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization (from Federal Reserve) – Survey of Manufacturing Technology – Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures Survey https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/economicdata.html INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 83

84. 2/18/2013 Other Business Data III Firm Surveys – Annual Capital Expenditure Survey – Annual Surveys of Retail Trade, Wholesale Trade, Services – Business Expenditure Survey (every 5 years) – Business Research and Development (new, NSF) – Survey of Industrial Research and Development (discontinued, NSF) – Exporter Database (International Trade Administration) – Kauffman Firm Survey – Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, Orders (M3) – Quarterly Financial Report – Survey of Business Owners (every 5 years) Transaction Surveys – Commodity Flow Survey (DOT) – Foreign Trade Data (Imports/Exports) https://www.census.gov/ces/dataproducts/economicdata.html INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 84

85. 2/18/2013 Census of Manufactures Includes Annual Survey questions, plants Includes all establishments (not just ASM) Includes many additional questions – Expenditures on computers – Inventory valuation – Materials consumed – Questions vary over time Published detail: geography, size classes INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 85

86. Using ASM to Complement CM Foster, L.; Haltiwanger, J. C. & Krizan, C. J. (2001), “Aggregate Productivity Growth. Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence”, in Charles R. Hulten & Edwin R. Dean & Michael J. Harper, ed., New Developments in Productivity Analysis Example of issue: “for plants that were not in the Annual Survey of Manufactures [...] but in the mail universe of the CM, book-value data are imputed in years other than 1987.” Solution: use ASM as control for larger model 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 86

87. 2/18/2013 PACE Survey Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures Subsample of ASM (high-pollution sectors) Capital expenditures and operating costs 1973-1986, 1988-1994, 1999, 2004/5+ Published with geography, industry detail INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 87

88. PACE Research Usage http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/ces/search papers?search_terms=pace&allpapers=1 http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/ces/search papers?search_terms=pace&allpapers=1 CES-WP-93-6, “Environmental Regulation And Manufacturing Productivity At The Plant Level” (Gray and Shadbegian) http://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/93-6.html http://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/93-6.html – PACE => abatement capital stock – ASM => productivity, size – EPA data => emissions – “a $1 increase in compliance costs appears to reduce TFP by the equivalent of $3 to $4” 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 88

89. 2/18/2013 Industry-level Research NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database (Bartelsmann, Becker, Gray) – Latest at http://www.nber.org/data/nbprod2005.htmlhttp://www.nber.org/data/nbprod2005.html – Annual industry-level data on output, employment, payroll and other input costs, investment, capital stocks, TFP, and various industry-specific price indexes Available in RDC Other Published Data Research Examples INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 89

90. 2/18/2013 CES-NBER Manufacturing Industry Productivity Database Available on NBER website http://www.nber.org/nberces/nbprod96.htm Documented in Bartelsman and Gray http://www.nber.org/nberces/t0205.pdf and Bartelsman, Becker, Gray http://www.nber.org/nberces/ http://www.nber.org/nberces/t0205.pdf http://www.nber.org/nberces/ Basic ASM-CM data Also prices, capital stock, productivity Consistent industries (SIC/NAICS) Currently to 2005 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 90

91. 2/18/2013 Other Published Data Other ASM data – Labor costs, investment, inventories Economic Censuses – Geography, some size classes Complications – Changes in industry definitions – Hard to get older years in electronic form INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 91

92. 2/18/2013 Research Examples Impact of Pollution Abatement Costs – Combine PACE and ASM data – Geographic (SMSA) variation, employment – Industry variation, productivity slowdown Impact of Trade on Employment – Combine import/export data with ASM data Impact of Computers on TFP – Combine CM-computers and ASM data INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 92

93. 2/18/2013 Plant-Level Research Advantages and Disadvantages Standard Procedures Research Examples INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 93

94. 2/18/2013 Advantages and Disadvantages Advantages – Many more observations – Comparisons within industry – Micro/Plant foundations of Macro/Industry Disadvantages – More work to understand/clean data – Need to work at RDC (time, $) INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 94

95. Standard Procedures Often examining plants in single industry – Easier to justify common “production function” Nearly always linking to external data – Usually plant-specific external data – Sometimes geography-specific data 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 95

96. 2/18/2013 Research Examples CES working papers http://ideas.repec.org/s/cen/wpaper.html http://ideas.repec.org/s/cen/wpaper.html Shadbegian and Gray (2003) – PACE => abatement capital stock – ASM => productivity, size – EPA data => emissions INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 96

97. BLS Surveys National Compensation Survey (NCS) http://www.bls.gov/ncs/ http://www.bls.gov/ncs/ Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) http://www.bls.gov/oes/ http://www.bls.gov/oes/ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) http://www.bls.gov/jlt/http://www.bls.gov/jlt/ Current Employment Statistics (CES) http://www.bls.gov/ces/ http://www.bls.gov/ces/ 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 97

98. BLS RDC Access to the confidential versions of these surveys is only feasible at the BLS RDC in Washington (not the Census RDC) Protocols are different (more resource constrained) http://www.bls.gov/bls/blsresda.htm 2/18/2013 INFO 7470, please do not reproduce without attribution 98