1. Arab Population In Judea, Samaria & Gaza The Million Person Gap PCBS Projection 2004 Population 3.8 Million Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D. Copyright 2005 All Rights Reserved Fewer Births Net Negative Migration Jerusalem Arab Population Residents Living Abroad Study Result 2004 Population 2.5 Million The American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG) USA Research Team Bennett Zimmerman Roberta Seid, Ph.D. Michael Wise, Ph.D. Israel Research Team Yoram Ettinger Brig. Gen (Ret.) David Shahaf Prof. Ezra Sohar Dr. David Passig Avraham Shvout Yakov Faitelson

2. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Millions of People Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997; Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Terrtory, 1997 - 2015 19952005 2.0 4.0 Israeli and Palestinian Population Estimates Judea, Samaria and Gaza (1995 & 2005) Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS) Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) PCBS 2004 population total for Judea & Samaria and Gaza was 4.0 million, 100% above the ICBS 1995 figure of 2.0 million. Such growth would indicate a compound annual growth rate over 7% per annum, twice as high as the four leading countries in the world, Afghanistan, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea.

3. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 ‘97 2000 2005 2010 2015 Millions of People Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza 1997 PCBS Census and Projection (1997 - 2015) Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Terrtory, 1997 - 2015 When 2004 PCBS population estimate (3.8 million) is combined with Israeli Arab population (1.3 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to the number of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth, Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority. 5.0 6.0 The Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) forecast was the basis for future population reports 1997 Population: 2.78 Million 2015 Population: 5.81 Million Mid-Year 2004 Population reaches 3,827,914 1997 – 2004 Annual Growth Rate of 4.7% (Highest in the World)

4. Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of: Beginning Base Population + Births - Deaths + Immigration - Emigration = Ending Base Population Study investigated the 1997 PCBS Projection, factor by factor, against data released each year by PA and Israeli governmental agencies. Arab Population In Judea, Samaria & Gaza The Million Person Gap Methodology

5. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 Millions of People Examination of the base population data (1996 – Mid-Year 1997) December 1996 PA Ministry of Health 2.270 Million June 1997 PCBS 1997 Census (PCBS Mid-Year 1997) 2.783 Million 2.111 Million December 1996 ICBS Report 24K Half-Year Growth 210K Jerusalem Arabs 325K Residents Abroad 113K Additional Increase 648K Total excess over ICBS B efore C ensus C ensus E ra

6. “ We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad.” Hassan Abu Libdah Head of PCBS News Conference held at Al-Birah “The First Results of the Census” February 26, 1998 Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Coverage Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad

7. Census Coverage A comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following: 1.De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence. 2.De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment. For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories: A – The Categories underwent complete data collection. 1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and place of residence in the Palestinian territories. 2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households. 3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period. B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad. http://www.pcbs.org/phc_97/phc_covr.aspx Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census Coverage Inclusion of Residents Living Abroad

8. 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 ICBS 1996 + 8 Years Less deaths and emigration CEC October 2004 Voting Report 1.3 Million Eligible Voters Resident in Territories 200K Eligible Voters Abroad 87% Resident 13% Abroad 1.5 M 1.3M 1.85M 1.3M PCBS Forecast (2004) Millions of People PA Central Election Commission (CEC) Eligible Adult Voters Match ICBS Population Records October 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls. “Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004”

9. 120 80 40 Births/Year PCBS 1997 Projection vs. Births recorded by PA Ministry of Health 160 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 0 = PCBS 1997 Projection = PA Ministry of Health Thousands of Births/Year PCBS birth projections were based on an inflated population base. Since 2000, 40,000 annual projected births were never realized

10. 120 80 40 Births/Year Births recorded by PA Ministry of Health confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records 160 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 0 = PCBS 1997 Projection = PA Ministry of Health Thousands of Births/Year PA Ministry Of Education 1 st Grade Students 6 Years Later (2003)(2004) About 95% of 6 year old children register to first grade. The level of births recorded by the PA Ministry of Health is reaffirmed by school records, maintained by the PA Ministry of Education for first graders.

11. 120 80 40 160 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1994/5 0 Net Entries(Exits) In Thousands/Year Immigration/Year PCBS 1997 Projection PCBS population projections included an assumption of 50,000 net immigration annually, beginning 2001. The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept. 2000 has precluded net immigration, but Israel’s Demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.

12. 120 80 40 160 Net Entries (Exits) In Thousands/Year 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 0 = PCBS 1997 Projection = Actual Israel Border Data 19941993199219911990 Immigration/Year PCBS 1997 Projection vs. Actual Israel Border Data The PCBS built in assumptions of mass immigration into the West Bank and Gaza. By 2001, immigration was forecast to exceed 50,000 persons per annum. Actual border data showed net emigration of 10-20,000 persons each year since 1997. Therefore, the PCBS began to include 60-70,000 persons each year that were not present. Post Gulf War I: +25KPost Oslo I

13. Migration to Israel Officially Counted Only 1993 - 2003 From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDs and settled in pre-1967 Israel and Jerusalem under family reunification programs. The portion since 1997 totals approximately 105,000 persons. (Source: November 2003 Israel Ministry of Interior Report.) These figures do not address either: a)Unofficial immigrants who have moved over the ‘green-line’ into Israel b)Jerusalem residents with Israeli IDs who have moved back from Judea & Samaria into Israeli controlled Jerusalem.

14. Study Results Year by Year Detail Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.

15. Millions of People 4.0 3.5 3.0 PCBS Projection: 3.83 Million Total 2.42 Million J&S 1.41 Million Gaza 2.5 2.0 PA MOH Births Difference: 238K Birth Alterations Difference: 70K “The 1.34 Million Person Gap” Deaths Difference: 33K Immigration & Emigration Error Difference: 310K Migration to Israel Difference: 105K Jerusalem ArabsDifference: 210K Residents Living AbroadDifference: 325K Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113K Study Results: 2.49 Million Total 1.41 Million J&S 1.08 Million Gaza } Errors in PCBS Projection The Million Person Gap (By Mid-Year 2004)

16. Population Breakdown Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza (Begin Year 2004) Jews West Bank Arabs Israeli Arabs Gaza Arabs Israeli Arabs West Bank Arabs Israeli Arabs Israel 81% Jewish 4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio Israel & J&S 67% Jewish 2:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio Since the 1960s Israel J&S and Gaza 59% Jewish 3:2 Jewish/Arab Ratio Jewish Affiliated

17. Judea & Samaria Trend of Population Growth (1950-2004) 1950 19601970 Jordanian Period ’52-61 (20) (33) -- Low Growth 0.9% Rate -- Steady Emigration Early Israeli Period ’67-’85 -- Medium Growth 1.8% -- Health Improvements Post-Oslo Period ’00–‘04 -- Low Medium Growth 1.8% -- Hostilities -- Declining Birthrates -- Steady Emigration 198019902000 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Life Expectancy Up Infant Mortality Down -- Steady Emigration Late Israeli Period ’85-’95 -- High Growth 3.5% -- Economic Growth -- Some Years of Immigration Oslo Period ’95-’00 -- Medium Growth 2.2% -- Declining Birthrates -- Steady Emigration --Family Planning --Expanded Education --From rural to poor urban Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western society and trend toward Israeli Jews growth rates. Annual Population Growth Rates

18. In USA: Mr. Bennett Zimmerman Ph: 310-617-4180 E-mail: ben@aidrg.com Arab Population In the West Bank & Gaza The Million Person Gap Contact Information Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies published the Study in February 2006. The original study can be found at www.aidrg.comwww.aidrg.com The authors of this study have completed a companion piece, “Forecast for Israel and West Bank 2025,” which will be introduced at the 6th Herzliya Conference on January 23 2006.

19. 10 Total Fertility Rate Births/Woman 8 6 4 2 0 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) “Green Line” Jews and Moslems 1960 – 2004 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Forecasts for Israel have been consistently wrong because they apply yesterday’s high fertility rates to tomorrow’s forecast despite long-term decline in Israel Arab fertility. 9.23 1960/ 1964 3.39 8.47 1965/ 1969 3.36 1970/ 1974 3.28 1975/ 1979 3.00 5.54 1980/ 1984 2.80 4.70 1985/ 1989 2.79 4.67 1990/ 1994 2.62 4.67 1995/ 1999 2.62 4.36 2004 2.71 Jews Moslems 7.25 9.22

20. 5 Total Fertility Rate Births/Woman 4 3 2 1 0 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) “Green Line” Jews and Arabs 2000 - 2004 Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and even started to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR). After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling. 2006 – 3.6 Arab TFR and 2.75 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap Arab-Jewish TFR gap in the 1960s to 0.8 gap in 2006. 20002002 2003 Jews Arabs 2004 2.71 4.40 4.22 4. 00 4.17 2.73 2.64 2.66

21. 100 Thousands of Births 80 60 40 20 0 Demographic Momentum in the “Green Line” Jewish Births vs. Arab Births 1995 - 2005 Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Since 1995 annual Jewish births, in Israel, have increased by 36% (to 109.183 in 2006), while Arab births have trended downward at 38,653 in 2006. Jewish births accounted to 69% in 1995 and 74% in 2006, trending upward. 80.4 1995 Jews Arabs 1996 36.5 85.6 35.8 1997 88.3 36.2 1998 91.3 38.8 1999 92.6 39.4 2000 95.6 40.8 2001 95.2 41.4 2002 98.6 40.9 2003 103.6 41.3 2004 104.4 40.9 105.2 38.8 2005

22. Children per Family 8 6 4 2 0 “Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size Convergence in Fertility Intentions Source: Gallup News Service, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Lydia Saad, March 17 2006 Desired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs Young West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis Israel Jews What is the ideal number of children in a family? 3.06 3.73 Israel Arabs 4.52 West Bank Arabs 3.68 3.88 5.26 3.593.68 3.85 3.52 4.55 4.40 4.17 5.07 OrthodoxTraditional Secular 50+ 30-49 20-2915-19 50+ 30-49 20-2915-19

23. “Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family Size Convergence in Fertility Intentions “There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a potent political tool... The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel... However the assumption that Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come under recent criticism. “The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferred family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring American’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred number of children and the U.S. are quite parallel. “Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does among [younger] Palestinians. “Gallup” Comments -- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Gallup News Service, March 17 2006

24. Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews Israel’s Official Forecast (2000 - 2025) 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 2.4 2.1 Total Fertility Rates The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from 2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025. Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high case and 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario

25. Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews (2000 - 2004) 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 2.4 2.1 Actuals 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2.66 2.64 2.73 2.71 2.77 2.75 Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates Considered by the ICBS in its forecast. Total Fertility Rates

26. Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems Israel’s Official Forecast (2000 - 2025) 3.8 2.1 The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remain stable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenario No immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 4.50 4.7 Total Fertility Rates High Case Scenario Medium Case Scenario Low Case Scenario

27. Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems (2000 - 2004) 3.8 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2000 - 05 2021 - 25 2.6 4.50 4.7 Total Fertility Rates Actuals 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Moslems 1,090 83% 4.74 4.58 4.50 4.36 Christians 116 9% 2.55 2.29 2.31 2.13 Druze 112 8% 3.07 2.77 2.85 2.66 Total Arab 1,318 4.40 4.22 4.17 4.02 3.9 3.6 Moslem Total Arab Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.