1. Welcome

2. Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) P.Batima, PI of the project, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop Bangkok, 24-27 March 2002

3. Climate change studies in Mongolia Climate change studies in Mongolia Project objectives Project objectives Institutional Involvement Institutional Involvement Methodology Methodology Results Results Contents:

4. Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia

5. The first climate change study carried out under the US Country Studies Program (USCSP), in which prepared the first GHG inventory for 1990 and conducted preliminary assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia

6. In 1999 Mongolia has developed its National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) with assistance from the Government of the Netherlands. The programme comprises an overview of impact assessment, possible adaptation measures, GHGs emission inventory and its projections, GHGs mitigation measures, and response measures’ implementation strategies. Mongolia has submitted the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2001. Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia

7. Project Development Implement NAPCC Contribute to second NC

8. Project Objectives

9. The ministry most closely involved in climate change and environmental problem is the Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE). The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology is the administrating institution for the project implementation. The institute conducts climate change studies since 1993. Other important organizations, which are involving in the project activities, the JEMR Co.LTD, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, International Institute for Study of Nomadic Civilization, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Information and Computer Center, Institute of Geography, SATU Co.LTD, Mongolian National University, University of Agriculture and others. Private sectors and NGOs are also involving in climate change activities. Institutional Involvement

10. Stakeholder ConsultantsExpertsWorkshop

11. Field survey ++ Participatory involvement survey + Training The analytical approaches are based on review and evaluation of past studies and learning from the evaluation. The ecosystem model “CENTURY”, The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight and Basin Conceptual model Remote sensing and GIS technologies are using for data gathering, thematic processing of attributes, maps and images Methodologies

12. Work plan Past and present climate change impact Past and present climate change impact Vulnerability and Future CC impact Vulnerability and Future CC impact Integrated and Adaptation Assessment Integrated and Adaptation Assessment

13. Trend analysis Temperature (annual, seasonal, heath and Temperature (annual, seasonal, heath and cold wave) cold wave) Precipitation (annual, seasonal, percentile) Precipitation (annual, seasonal, percentile) Responses to climate change Natural resources (water, snow cover, soil) Natural resources (water, snow cover, soil) Pasture (productivity, capacity, phenology) Pasture (productivity, capacity, phenology) Animal husbandry (weight, productivity) Field study Natural disaster

14. Trend analysis

15. World air temperature 0.3-0.6 0 C for last 100 years Annual mean temperature 1.66 o C of Mongolia Winter temperature 3.61 o C Spring 1.5 o C Summer 0 o C Changes in Temperature

17. Changes in Precipitation

18. Responses to climate change

19. 26-IX 1-X 6-X 11-X 16-X 21-X 26-X 31-X 5-XI 195019601970198019902000 Water Resources

20. Ìèæèääîðæ, ªëçèéñàéõàí Snow Cover

21. 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1980 1981 198219831984198519861987 1988 1989 19901991 199219931994 19951996 199719981999 2000 2001 Æèí / êã Áàÿðáààòàð Animal Husbandry

22. Natural disaster

23. Drought and wind storm

24. Field survey

25. Past and present CC Impacts Identify more vulnerable areas and sectors Assess potential impacts Identify adaptation options Examine constrains Formulate alternative strategies Develop implementation strategies Steps

27. Based on the results of the Impact and V&A assessment on key socio-economic and environmental sectors, the following documents, consistent with Mongolia National Action Program on Climate Change, will be prepared and submitted to the Government Report of Climate Change Impact and V&A Assessment for socio-economic development. The report will include vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems and pastoral systems to climate change (warming, variability and extremes) and land use intensity identified through integrated impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, using long-term climate and plant records, RS sensing data (AVHRR and TM), ecosystem model CENTURY and field survey. Recommendations of the economically effective and culturally acceptable adaptation measures in pasture management and livestock development to support national sustainable development strategies will be suggested. Implementation strategies of the most promising adaptation measures in vulnerable region will be recommended. Climate mitigation options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated, and potential adaptation strategies for policymaking will be developed for each land use type regions, with particular emphasis on the most vulnerable coupled environment-human systems. Several peer-reviewed papers and “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem and Pastoral System to Climate Change in Mongolia” book will be written as a result of this project. Outputs