1. Chapter 6 Introduction to Statistical Inference

2. Introduction Goal: Make statements regarding a population (or state of nature) based on a sample of measurements Probability statements used to substantiate claims Example: Clinical Trial for Pravachol (5-year follow-up) –Of 3302 subjects receiving Pravachol, 174 had heart incidences –Of 3293 subjects receiving placebo, 248 had heart incidences

3. Estimating with Confidence Goal: Estimate a population mean (proportion) based on sample mean (proportion) Unknown: Parameter ( , p) Known: Approximate Sampling Distribution of Statistic Recall: For a random variable that is normally distributed, the probability that it will fall within 2 standard deviations of mean is approximately 0.95

4. Estimating with Confidence Although the parameter is unknown, it’s highly likely that our sample mean or proportion (estimate) will lie within 2 standard deviations (aka standard errors) of the population mean or proportion (parameter) Margin of Error: Measure of the upper bound in sampling error with a fixed level (we will use 95%) of confidence. That will correspond to 2 standard errors:

5. Confidence Interval for a Mean  Confidence Coefficient (C): Probability (based on repeated samples and construction of intervals) that a confidence interval will contain the true mean  Common choices of C and resulting intervals:

6. C 

7. C 0

8. Philadelphia Monthly Rainfall (1825-1869)

9. 4 Random Samples of Size n=20, 95% CI’s

10. Factors Effecting Confidence Interval Width Goal: Have precise (narrow) confidence intervals –Confidence Level (C): Increasing C implies increasing probability an interval contains parameter implies a wider confidence interval. Reducing C will shorten the interval (at a cost in confidence) –Sample size (n): Increasing n decreases standard error of estimate, margin of error, and width of interval (Quadrupling n cuts width in half) –Standard Deviation (  ): More variable the individual measurements, the wider the interval. Potential ways to reduce  are to focus on more precise target population or use more precise measuring instrument. Often nothing can be done as nature determines 

11. Selecting the Sample Size Before collecting sample data, usually have a goal for how large the margin of error should be to have useful estimate of unknown parameter (particularly when comparing two populations) Let m be the desired level of the margin of error and  be the standard deviation of the population of measurements (typically will be unknown and must be estimated based on previous research or pilot study The sample size giving this margin of error is:

12. Precautions Data should be simple random sample from population (or at least can be treated as independent observations) More complex sampling designs have adjustments made to formulas (see Texts such as Elementary Survey Sampling by Scheaffer, Mendenhall, Ott) Biased sampling designs give meaningless results Small sample sizes from nonnormal distributions will have coverage probabilities (C) typically below the nominal level Typically  is unknown. Replacing it with sample standard deviation s works as a good approximation in large samples

13. Significance Tests Method of using sample (observed) data to challenge a hypothesis regarding a state of nature (represented as particular parameter value(s)) Begin by stating a research hypothesis that challenges a statement of “status quo” (or equality of 2 populations) State the current state or “status quo” as a statement regarding population parameter(s) Obtain sample data and see to what extent it agrees/disagrees with the “status quo” Conclude that the “status quo” is not true if observed data are highly unlikely (low probability) if it were true

14. Pravachol and Olestra Pravachol vs Placebo wrt heart disease/death –Pravachol: 5.27% of 3302 patients suffer MI or death to CHD –Placebo: 7.53% of 3293 patients suffer MI or death to CHD –Probability of difference this large for Pravachol if no more effective than placebo is.000088 (will learn formula later) Olestra vs Triglyceride Chips wrt GI Symptoms –Olestra: 15.81% of 563 subjects report GI symptoms –Triglyceride: 17.58% of 529 subjects report GI symptoms –Probability of difference this large in either direction (olestra better or worse) is.4354 Strong evidence of Pravachol effect vs placebo Weak to no evidence of Olestra effect vs Triglyceride

15. Elements of a Significance Test Null hypothesis (H 0 ): Statement or theory being tested. Will be stated in terms of parameters and contain an equality. Test is set up under the assumption of its truth. Alternative Hypothesis (H a ): Statement contradicting H 0. Will be stated in terms of parameters and contain an inequality. Will only be accepted if strong evidence refutes H 0 based on sample data. May be 1-sided or 2-sided, depending on theory being tested. Test Statistic (TS): Quantity measuring discrepancy between sample statistic (estimate) and parameter value under H 0 P-value: Probability (assuming H 0 true) that we would observe sample data (test statistic) this extreme or more extreme in favor of the alternative hypothesis (H a )

16. Example: Interference Effect Does the way items are presented effect task time? –Subjects shown list of color names in 2 colors: different/black –X i is the difference in times to read lists for subject i: diff-blk –H 0 : No interference effect: mean difference is 0 (  = 0) –H a : Interference effect exists: mean difference > 0 (  > 0) –Assume standard deviation in differences is  = 8 (unrealistic*) –Experiment to be based on n=70 subjects How likely to observe sample mean difference  2.39 if  = 0?

17. 0 2.39 P-value

18. Computing the P-Value 2-sided Tests: How likely is it to observe a sample mean as far of farther from the value of the parameter under the null hypothesis? (H 0 :  0 H a :  0 ) After obtaining the sample data, compute the mean and convert it to a z-score (z obs ) and find the area above |z obs | and below -|z obs | from the standard normal (z) table 1-sided Tests: Obtain the area above z obs for upper tail tests (H a :  0 ) or below z obs for lower tail tests (H a :  0 )

19. Interference Effect (1-sided Test) Testing whether population mean time to read list of colors is higher when color is written in different color Data: X i : difference score for subject i (Different-Black) Null hypothesis (H 0 ): No interference effect (  = 0) Alternative hypothesis (H a ): Interference effect (  > 0) “Known”: n=70,  = 8 (This won’t be known in practice but can be replaced by sample s.d. for large samples)

20. Interference Effect (2-sided Test) Testing whether population mean time to read list of colors is effected (higher or lower) when color is written in different color Data: X i : difference score for subject i (Different-Black) Null hypothesis (H 0 ): No interference effect (  = 0) Alternative hypothesis (H a ): Interference effect (+ or -) (  0) “Known”: n=70,  = 8 (This won’t be known in practice but can be replaced by sample s.d. for large samples)

21. Equivalence of 2-sided Tests and CI’s For  = 1-C, a 2-sided test conducted at  significance level will give equivalent results to a C-level confidence interval: –If entire interval >  0, P-value 0 (conclude  >  0 ) –If entire interval <  0, P-value < , z obs < 0 (conclude  <  0 ) –If interval contains  0, P-value >  (don’t conclude   0 ) Confidence interval is the set of parameter values that we would fail to reject the null hypothesis for (based on a 2- sided test)

22. Decision Rules and Critical Values Once a significance (  ) level has been chosen a decision rule can be stated, based on a critical value: 2-sided tests: H 0 :  =  0 H a :   0 –If test statistic (z obs ) > z  /2 Reject H o and conclude  >  0 –If test statistic (z obs ) < -z  /2 Reject H o and conclude  <  0 –If -z  /2 < z obs < z  /2 Do not reject H 0 :  =  0 1-sided tests (Upper Tail): H 0 :  =  0 H a :  >  0 –If test statistic (z obs ) > z  Reject H o and conclude  >  0 –If z obs < z  Do not reject H 0 :  =  0 1-sided tests (Lower Tail): H 0 :  =  0 H a :  <  0 –If test statistic (z obs ) < -z  Reject H o and conclude  <  0 –If z obs > -z  Do not reject H 0 :  =  0

23. Potential for Abuse of Tests Should choose a significance (  ) level in advance and report test conclusion (significant/nonsignificant) as well as the P-value. Significance level of 0.05 is widely used in the academic literature Very large sample sizes can detect very small differences for a parameter value. A clinically meaningful effect should be determined, and confidence interval reported when possible A nonsignificant test result does not imply no effect (that H 0 is true). Many studies test many variables simultaneously. This can increase overall type I error rates

24. Large-Sample Test H 0 :  1 -  2 =0 vs H 0 :  1 -  2 >0 H 0 :  1 -  2 = 0 (No difference in population means H A :  1 -  2 > 0 (Population Mean 1 > Pop Mean 2) Conclusion - Reject H 0 if test statistic falls in rejection region, or equivalently the P-value is  

25. Example - Botox for Cervical Dystonia Patients - Individuals suffering from cervical dystonia Response - Tsui score of severity of cervical dystonia (higher scores are more severe) at week 8 of Tx Research (alternative) hypothesis - Botox A decreases mean Tsui score more than placebo Groups - Placebo (Group 1) and Botox A (Group 2) Experimental (Sample) Results: Source: Wissel, et al (2001)

26. Example - Botox for Cervical Dystonia Test whether Botox A produces lower mean Tsui scores than placebo (  = 0.05) Conclusion: Botox A produces lower mean Tsui scores than placebo (since 2.82 > 1.645 and P-value < 0.05)

27. 2-Sided Tests Many studies don’t assume a direction wrt the difference  1 -  2 H 0 :  1 -  2 = 0 H A :  1 -  2  0 Test statistic is the same as before Decision Rule: –Conclude  1 -  2 > 0 if z obs  z   =0.05  z  2 =1.96) –Conclude  1 -  2 < 0 if z obs  -z   =0.05  -z  2 = -1.96) –Do not reject  1 -  2 = 0 if -z   z obs  z  P-value: 2P(Z  |z obs |)

28. Power of a Test Power - Probability a test rejects H 0 (depends on  1 -  2 ) –H 0 True: Power = P(Type I error) =  –H 0 False: Power = 1-P(Type II error) = 1-  ·Example: ·H 0 :  1 -  2 = 0 H A :  1 -  2 > 0     =     n 1 = n 2 = 25 ·Decision Rule: Reject H 0 (at  =0.05 significance level) if:

29. Power of a Test Now suppose in reality that  1 -  2 = 3.0 (H A is true) Power now refers to the probability we (correctly) reject the null hypothesis. Note that the sampling distribution of the difference in sample means is approximately normal, with mean 3.0 and standard deviation (standard error) 1.414. Decision Rule (from last slide): Conclude population means differ if the sample mean for group 1 is at least 2.326 higher than the sample mean for group 2 Power for this case can be computed as:

30. Power of a Test All else being equal: As sample sizes increase, power increases As population variances decrease, power increases As the true mean difference increases, power increases

31. Power of a Test Distribution (H 0 )Distribution (H A )

32. Power of a Test Power Curves for group sample sizes of 25,50,75,100 and varying true values  1 -  2 with  1 =  2 =5. For given  1 -  2, power increases with sample size For given sample size, power increases with  1 -  2

33. Sample Size Calculations for Fixed Power Goal - Choose sample sizes to have a favorable chance of detecting a clinically meaning difference Step 1 - Define an important difference in means: –Case 1:  approximated from prior experience or pilot study - dfference can be stated in units of the data –Case 2:  unknown - difference must be stated in units of standard deviations of the data Step 2 - Choose the desired power to detect the the clinically meaningful difference (1- , typically at least.80). For 2-sided test: