1. IGOR OKUNEV VICE-DEAN, SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, MOSCOW STATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION Geopolitical Codes in the Transatlantic Area MARCH 8, 2013 THESSALONIKI, GREECE 4 TH CONFERENCE ON SECURITY, STRATEGY AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

2. March 8 - Women’s Day No other country then Russia celebrates so widely and brightly the New York manifestation for women rights on March 8, 1908. In modern Russia the day lost its political flavor, and became simply an occasion for men to express their love for women.

3. Geopolitical Codes The manner in which a country orientates itself towards the world (Flint, 2011) What are current and potential allies? What is current and potential enemies? How can we maintain our allies and nurture potential allies? How can we counter our current enemies and emerging threat? How do we justify the four culculations above to our public, and to the global community? (Taylor and Flint, 2000)

4. USA Russia Local  (before XIX) Regional  (XIX-XX cc.) Global  (from WWII) Local  (before XVIII c.) Regional  (XVIII-XX cc.) Global  (from WWII till 1991) Regional  (from 1991) Scales of Geopolitical Codes

5. Orientation of Geopolitical Codes in Russia Debate of prowestern and antiwestern thinkers and policymakers from Ivan the Terrible (after Russia proclaimed itself as a leader of Eastern Christianity) Mostly antiwestern population with prowestern leaders (Peter the Great) Even in Soviet time:  Absorbed western communism  Anti - imperialism,  Alter - western. Now - face the period when the leadership becomes antiwestern after the population.

6. Russian Foreign Policy Doctrines 2001-2004“European choice” (Putin, German Parliament) 2005-2008Natural resources super power 2009-2012Resources for modernization 2013 - Sovereignization Dealing with Russian will mean dealing with V. Putin and it will not be easy (Trenin 2013) – realpolitik?

7. First Antiwestern Doctrine (2013) Putin need to consolidate power at home challenged by big city protests in 2011-12 Cancellation of USAID and foreign NGOs activities (“foreign agents” - spies) Anti US Magnitsky Act – adoption of Russian children Restricting Russian officials to own assets and property abroad

8. Why? Sovereign determination is build on opposition to the external theat. Unequal status vis-à-vis the West (foreign aid recepient, democracy class drop-out) New right national ideology formation. Russian no longer accept the values gap between itself ant the Europe but proudly advertise its own traditional values (national sovereignty, religious faith, traditional family). “Enchecked freedoms erode EU society. Europeans becomes too soft and giving up their former strengths”.

9. Turn to East APEC Summit in Vladivostok New opportunities in cooperation with China, India, Japan, ASEAN countries. Need to develop Russian Far East.

10. Eurasian Union The only goal for Putin is become history. Not a new empire like H. Clinton called it. Customs Union from 2009 Economic Union from 2015 Belarus, Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (2013-14) Ukraine – for EU “suitcase without a handle”: can neither be carried forward, nor abandoned. Uzbekistan, Armenia - ?

11. Recommendations for Western policymakers Proceed in no-visa process Stress on economic cooperation Cooperate on regional issues (Kaliningrad, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Arctic, Pacific) Cooperate in missile defense and nuclear nonproliferation No isolation

12. IGOR OKUNEV IOKUNEV@MGIMO.RU Thank you!