1. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Research Initial Proposal Gerard Ibarra January 21, 2005 Research Initial Proposal Gerard Ibarra January 21, 2005 Update 2.0

2. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Disconnects in the Transportation and Logistics Critical Infrastructure Resource Allocation Modeling Based on Systems Engineering Methodologies Disconnects in the Transportation and Logistics Critical Infrastructure Resource Allocation Modeling Based on Systems Engineering Methodologies

3. Disconnects in the Transportation and Logistics Critical Infrastructure Resource Allocation Modeling Based on Systems Engineering Methodologies

4. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Outline Objective Overview Research Process Formulating the Model Benefits Conclusion Objective Overview Research Process Formulating the Model Benefits Conclusion

5. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Objective To develop a model based on SE methodologies and practices for assessing the critical infrastructure as a complex system-of-systems with respect to resource allocation for a Transportation Logistics Highway Vehicles (TLHV) terrorist attack Should I narrow down to terrorist attack or keep with disconnect?

6. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Objective To analyze performance, reliability, security, safety, risks, and impact of disruption due to terror attacks or natural events

7. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Objective No Print

8. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 SE Overview

9. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 SE Definition Various Definitions Exists State the problem; Investigate alternatives; Model the system; Integrate; Launch the system; Assesses performance; and Re- evaluate (SIMILAR). The systems engineering process is not sequential. The functions are performed in a parallel and iterative manner. 1 Various Definitions Exists State the problem; Investigate alternatives; Model the system; Integrate; Launch the system; Assesses performance; and Re- evaluate (SIMILAR). The systems engineering process is not sequential. The functions are performed in a parallel and iterative manner. 1

10. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Other SE Components System-of-Systems Interdependencies Elements of a System 2 Components Attributes Relationships System-of-Systems Interdependencies Elements of a System 2 Components Attributes Relationships

11. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 SE Description Top-down/Bottom- up Life-cycle Identification of System Requirements Team Approach

12. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Critical Infrastructure (CI) Overview

13. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 CI History President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection report called for a national effort to assure the security of the United States' increasingly vulnerable and interconnected infrastructures 3 Lead to the Presidential Decision Directive 63 (PDD63) President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection report called for a national effort to assure the security of the United States' increasingly vulnerable and interconnected infrastructures 3 Lead to the Presidential Decision Directive 63 (PDD63)

14. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Number of CIs There are 13 general CI defined by the Department of Homeland Security 1.Agriculture 2.Banking and Finance 3.Chem. Ind. & Haz Mat 4.Defense Indus. Base 5.Emergency Services 6.Energy 7.Food 8.Government 9.Info. and Telecom. 10.Postal and Shipping 11.Public Health 12.Transportation 13.Water

15. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Other CIs Others include: SPAWAR – 10 with subsets InfraGard of North Texas – 9 CI could also be specific to area Port of Houston Others include: SPAWAR – 10 with subsets InfraGard of North Texas – 9 CI could also be specific to area Port of Houston

16. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Common Property of CI All are complex collections of interacting components in which change often occurs as a result of learning process; that is, they are complex adaptive systems (CAS) 4

17. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Trans/Log Overview

18. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Importance of Trans/Log “Transportation is one of the most important and increasingly complex infrastructure networks of our modern society” 5

19. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Transportation Definition A facility consisting of the means and equipment necessary for the movement of passengers or goods 6

20. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Logistics Definition That part of the supply chain process that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and storage of goods, services, and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers' requirements 7

21. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Single Source Information Customer Financial Customs Air Freight Fwd Motor Rail Ocean Mfg Information Product/ Material Single Source Information Consolidator De-consolidator

22. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Trans/Log GDP Gross Domestic Product: 2003 8 8.5% 91.5% Trans/LogAll Other

23. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Trans/Log Modals Airports/Aircraft Highways/Vehicles Pipelines Railroads/Trains Waterways/Vessels Airports/Aircraft Highways/Vehicles Pipelines Railroads/Trains Waterways/Vessels

24. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Road Map to the Research Process

25. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104

27. State the Problem Develop case for problem – research articles from Newspapers Magazines Journals Other articles not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.) Develop case for problem – research articles from Newspapers Magazines Journals Other articles not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.)

28. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Identify Risks National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Information Briefing on the Department of Defense (DOD) CI Protection, July 3, 2002 Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies Hazard and Operations Analysis (HAZOP) Synthesis – Research, Investigate, and Interview National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Information Briefing on the Department of Defense (DOD) CI Protection, July 3, 2002 Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies Hazard and Operations Analysis (HAZOP) Synthesis – Research, Investigate, and Interview

29. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Identify Risks Assess TLHV’s Risk 9

30. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Identify Stakeholders Fuse Trans/Log Highways and Vehicles (TLHV) with the CI Commuters Distribution Centers Utilities / Power Crews Emergency Responders Airports Water Ports Bus and Rail Stations DOD

31. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Categorize Risks Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS) Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD) Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS) Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)

32. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Formulating the Model

33. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Formulate Model Nodes Links Geographical Interdependencies Nodes Links Geographical Interdependencies

34. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Functional Analysis Perform Functional Analysis

35. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Graphical Representation TI Nodes Links Geo. Inter. i, j RR DT TR i, j DFW

36. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Assume Steady State Simulation Flow Diagram Variables Likelihood

37. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Adaptive Model The likelihood of a disconnect changes with the state of the environment and time. Hence, the model requires minimal high-level inputs from the user in terms of the type and likelihood of disconnects that could occur. These inputs allow the model to become adaptive to the current environment and provide results that are more meaningful.

38. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Model Function Type of Disconnect Terror Explosion Chemical Bio/Hazard Accident Chemical Multiple Fatality Single Fatality Multiple Severe Injuries Severe Injury Minor Injury(s) Fender Bender Natural Disaster Earthquake Flooding Hurricane Tornado Severe Weather Other Special Events Construction School Closings Time of Day/Day of Wk Rush Hour AM PM Holliday New Years Easter Memorial Day 4th July Labor Day Thanks Giving Christmas Other Morning Lunch Afternoon Evening Late Night Early Morning Day of Wk Variables Geographical Interdependencies Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports Coupling Relationship of Impact Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports

39. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Model Function Type of Disconnect Terror Explosion Chemical Bio/Hazard Accident Chemical Multiple Fatality Single Fatality Multiple Severe Injuries Severe Injury Minor Injury(s) Fender Bender Natural Disaster Earthquake Flooding Hurricane Tornado Severe Weather Other Special Events Construction School Closings Time of Day/Day of Wk Rush Hour AM PM Holliday New Years Easter Memorial Day 4th July Labor Day Thanks Giving Christmas Other Morning Lunch Afternoon Evening Late Night Early Morning Day of Wk Variables Geographical Interdependencies Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports Coupling Relationship of Impact Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports

40. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Elements of the Model Geographical Interdependencies: Those CI that are within proximity of each other Temporal Range: The time of the incident State of Operation: Peak conditions, repair or restoration Coupling: The linearity and complexity of the interactions Geographical Interdependencies: Those CI that are within proximity of each other Temporal Range: The time of the incident State of Operation: Peak conditions, repair or restoration Coupling: The linearity and complexity of the interactions

41. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Quantify and Rank Risks Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM) Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) Fault Tree (FT) Event Tree (ET) Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM) Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) Fault Tree (FT) Event Tree (ET) Stochastic Bayesian Analysis Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

42. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Estimate Cost Accidents Non fatal injuries Fatal Highway Construction Time Delays Goods to market Personal time Accidents Non fatal injuries Fatal Highway Construction Time Delays Goods to market Personal time Stochastic Queuing Analysis Reliability Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation

43. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Model Output Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node

44. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Metrics and Validation

45. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Metrics Risk mitigation Diverting traffic before disconnect Strategically locating emergency responders for obviating potential disconnects Risk mitigation Diverting traffic before disconnect Strategically locating emergency responders for obviating potential disconnects

46. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Metrics Descriptive of what occurs: Before disconnect After disconnect Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs Quantify affects after disconnect occurs Descriptive of what occurs: Before disconnect After disconnect Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs Quantify affects after disconnect occurs

47. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Validate Model Test model – threshold Replicate model in Houston Test model – threshold Replicate model in Houston

48. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Elements of the Model Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect Available Funds: The available funds earmarked for emergency responses Physical Interdependency: Physical attribute of the CI such as a major Hwy Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect Available Funds: The available funds earmarked for emergency responses Physical Interdependency: Physical attribute of the CI such as a major Hwy

49. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Elements of the Model Distribution Velocity of Funds: How soon are funds available for distribution

50. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Metrics Descriptive of what occurs: Before disconnect After disconnect Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs Quantify affects after disconnect occurs Descriptive of what occurs: Before disconnect After disconnect Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs Quantify affects after disconnect occurs

51. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Metrics Quantify risk mitigation Diverting traffic before disconnect Strategically locating emergency responders for obviating potential disconnect Quantify risk mitigation Diverting traffic before disconnect Strategically locating emergency responders for obviating potential disconnect

52. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Tools/Methodologies Reliability Analysis FMECA Monte Carlo Simulation Risk Analysis Stochastic Models Statistical Analysis Linear Programming Reliability Analysis FMECA Monte Carlo Simulation Risk Analysis Stochastic Models Statistical Analysis Linear Programming

53. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Benefits

54. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Benefits Model for municipalities to use for resource allocation based on terrorist attacks on the Trans/Log CI Reduce resource waste Increase efficiencies Align emergency plan based on severity Model for municipalities to use for resource allocation based on terrorist attacks on the Trans/Log CI Reduce resource waste Increase efficiencies Align emergency plan based on severity

55. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Benefits Homeland Security Funding: Earmark funding to areas that pose greatest risk of a terrorist attack Future Highway Designs: Compare new proposed highway design against model for minimizing risk and cost due to disconnects in system Homeland Security Funding: Earmark funding to areas that pose greatest risk of a terrorist attack Future Highway Designs: Compare new proposed highway design against model for minimizing risk and cost due to disconnects in system

56. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Conclusion

57. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Conclusion Systems Engineering approach elevates the decision making process by considering the system versus an entity CI is dynamic and intertwined with the system’s interdependencies Affects citizens’ way of life Impacts companies way of doing business Exponentially growing in complexity 10 Systems Engineering approach elevates the decision making process by considering the system versus an entity CI is dynamic and intertwined with the system’s interdependencies Affects citizens’ way of life Impacts companies way of doing business Exponentially growing in complexity 10

58. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Conclusion Trans/Log accounts for almost 9% of the US GDP Pivotal for US and world economy Fosters commerce Trans/Log accounts for almost 9% of the US GDP Pivotal for US and world economy Fosters commerce

59. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Conclusion SE Critical Infrastructures Transportation/ Logistics

60. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Conclusion Provide a systematic approach for understanding and quantifying the Trans/Log CI and its Interdependencies Develop Trans/Log CI framework to model resource allocation in an event of a disconnect Provide a systematic approach for understanding and quantifying the Trans/Log CI and its Interdependencies Develop Trans/Log CI framework to model resource allocation in an event of a disconnect

61. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Footnotes 1.Inaugural issue, Systems Engineering, Journal of the International Council of Systems Engineering INCOSE, Seattle, WA (vol. 1, no. 1, July/September 1994). 2.Benjamin S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2004), p. 28. 3.The Whit House: Office of the Press Secretary, Fact Sheet, May 22, 1998. [Online]. Available at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd-63.htm. 4.Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.13. 5.George Mason University, Systems Engineering Research and Operations. 1.Inaugural issue, Systems Engineering, Journal of the International Council of Systems Engineering INCOSE, Seattle, WA (vol. 1, no. 1, July/September 1994). 2.Benjamin S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2004), p. 28. 3.The Whit House: Office of the Press Secretary, Fact Sheet, May 22, 1998. [Online]. Available at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd-63.htm. 4.Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.13. 5.George Mason University, Systems Engineering Research and Operations.

62. PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104 Footnotes 6.Cognitive Science Laboratory, Princeton University. 7.The Michigan Roundtables (Council of Logistics Management) 8.Perry A. Trunick, How to Beat the High Cost of Shipping, Logistics Today, July, 2004. 9.NDIA Information Briefing. DoD Critical Infrastructure Protection, July 3, 2002. 10.Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.24. 6.Cognitive Science Laboratory, Princeton University. 7.The Michigan Roundtables (Council of Logistics Management) 8.Perry A. Trunick, How to Beat the High Cost of Shipping, Logistics Today, July, 2004. 9.NDIA Information Briefing. DoD Critical Infrastructure Protection, July 3, 2002. 10.Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.24.