1. O x f o r d R e s e a r c h Falkoner allé 20 DK-2000 Frederiksberg Tlf.: 33 69 13 69 Fax: 33 69 13 33 E-mail: office@oxfordresearch.dk Hjemmeside: www.oxfordresearch.dk Tourism Industry: Employment and labour market challenges Prague June 2009 Scenarios for the hotels & restaurant sector Presentation by Jakob Stoumann, Senior analyst Oxford Research Copenhagen

2. - a company in the Oxford Group - Definition of the sector Hotels and other short stay accommodations 55.1 Hotels 55.10 Hotels 55.2 Camping sites and other provision of short-stay accommodation 55.21 Youth hostels and mountain refuges 55.22 Camping sites, including caravan sites 55.23 Other provisions of lodging n.e.c. Restaurants and bars, 55.3 Restaurants 55.30 Restaurants 55.4 Bars 55.40 Bars Canteens and catering 55.5 Canteens and catering 55.51 Canteens 55.52 Catering Different characteristics: The Hotels, restaurants, and bars sub-sectors are both closely connected to tourism; Catering and canteens are barely linked to it at all. In the Hotels, Restaurants and bars sub-sectors SME’s are very important. Parts of the catering sector (the contract catering sector) are characterized by high company concentration.

3. - a company in the Oxford Group - The Scenario methodology The general economic development: Continued economic growth and globalisation or, Economic recession and nationalism The development of certain consumer trends Puritanism or, Escapism Two uncertain but very important drivers for the Hotels and restaurants sector has been identified. Scenarios describe possible developments until 2020.

4. - a company in the Oxford Group - Crossing drivers of change Puritanism Consumers will develop a more puritan and spiritual approach to consumption. The personal responsibility concerning for example health, environment, climate and fair trade is taken very serious. Saving before spending becomes more important. Economic recession and nationalism A recession will influence the society for the next 10-12 years. It will result in increased nationalism and regionalism where regions and nations turn their back to global cooperation concentrating on their own lack of resources. Economic growth and globalisation The ongoing economic crisis is just a minor and short economic slow down. With such a positive economic development increased globalisation will follow. Escapism Consumption is typically driven by the ‘faster, better, bigger’ ideology. Climate problems for example are not seen as a personal responsibility´. The escapists are concerned about health and the fairness of the world but tend to escape via wellness and traditional luxury.

5. - a company in the Oxford Group - The four scenarios Economic recession and nationalism Continued economic growth and globalisation Scenario 1 The Marco Polo Scenario Scenario 2 The Sunny Beach Scenario Puritanism Scenario 3 The Body Shop Scenario Scenario 4 The Asceticism Scenario Escapism

6. - a company in the Oxford Group - The Marco Polo Scenario Escapism Economic growth and globalisation The Marco Polo Scenario High individualisation Some specialisation possibilities Polarisation of the market High growth in both inbound and outbound tourism Wellness and traditional luxury

7. - a company in the Oxford Group - The Sunny Beach Scenario Escapism Economic recession and nationalism The Sunny Beach Scenario Mass produce, economies of scale Highly price driven market Conformity Comfort – but no luxury Regionalisation of travelling

8. - a company in the Oxford Group - The Body Shop Scenario Puritanism Economic growth and globalisation The Body Shop Scenario High individualisation Many specialisation possibilities Segmentation of the market Healthy lifestyle and holidays Goodness: volunteering, fair trade, organic food, etc.

9. - a company in the Oxford Group - The Asceticism Scenario Puritanism Economic recession and nationalism The Asceticism Scenario Basic living – simple holidaying ‘Close-to-home’ tourism Experiences: healthy, sustainable and cheap Food: vegetarian, organic, local produce, simple

10. - a company in the Oxford Group - Scenarios implications Table 5.1: Scenarios’ implications Hotels and restaurants Issue Scenario Company concentration Role of SMEsLevel of emerging competences & skills Employment level Scenario 1: The Marco Polo Scenario HighMedium High Scenario 2: The Sunny Beach Scenario HighLow Stagnation Scenario 3: The Body Shop Scenario Medium HighMedium Scenario 4: The Asceticism Scenario LowHighMediumDecrease Source: Oxford Research 2008

11. - a company in the Oxford Group - Emerging Competences in the scenarios Tasks and emerging competences Main occupational function The Marco Polo Scenario The Sunny Beach Scenario The Body Shop ScenarioThe Asceticism Scenario General Management Entrepreneurship Knowledge about health, environment and climate CSR Knowledge about ICT International financial management Intercultural management International financial management Knowledge about ICT Contract management Rationalisation methods and techniques Entrepreneurship Project management Multicultural management International networking Knowledge about ICT Knowledge about health, environment and climate CSR Knowledge about health, environment and climate CSR Rationalisation methods and techniques Marketing International corporate branding Branding through ICT Employer branding International corporate branding Branding through ICT Incorporating sustainability and CSR in corporate branding Exploring new, individualised market segments Employer branding Branding through ICT Employer branding Incorporating sustainability and CSR in branding Branding through ICT R&D Developing new, unique individualised hospitality experiences Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions Developing new individualised hospitality experiences Developing sustainable resorts and healthy menus Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions Developing sustainable resorts and healthy menus Production/ service Multi-skilling and flexibility ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions Intercultural competences Multiskilling and lexibility ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions Language skills Intercultural competences Cooperation and team spirit Multiskilling and flexibility Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and climate ICT skills Multi-skilling and flexibility Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and climate ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions

12. - a company in the Oxford Group - Scenarios’ common skills needs extended service skills Different lifestyles with increased focus on health, soundness and sustainability together with the increased expectation of high quality personalised services will require more knowledge and capabilities from the personnel in most of the scenarios; social and (inter)cultural skills Also relates to the need for extended service skills, but includes cooperative ability, team spirit, self management, innovativeness, entrepreneurship, etc.; skills within ICT and digitalisation In all of the scenarios, the sector will experience the increased use of ICT and digital and online solutions in most parts of the work organisation. financial management increased globalisation, competition, company concentration, and squeezed profit margins are all processes that contribute to making financial management more and more important within the Hotels and restaurants sector. flexibility and multiskilling in all of the scenarios, increased employee flexibility will be relevant in terms of working hours and/or in relation to work tasks and employees qualifications, and combinations of traditional hospitality skills with new specialised skills This is a trend prevalent in all of the scenarios, though the specific skill combinations vary. In general, most of the scenarios suggest an increase in new complex and highly interdisciplinary occupations and skills needs.

13. - a company in the Oxford Group - Denmark Oxford Research A/S Falkoner Allé 20, 4. sal 2000 Frederiksberg C Danmark Phone: (+45) 33 69 13 69 Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33 office@oxfordresearch.dk www.oxfordresearch.dk Norway Oxford Research AS Kjøita 42 4630 Kristiansand Norge Phone: (+47) 40 00 57 93 post@oxford.no www.oxford.no Sweden Oxford Research AB Box 582 201 25 Malmö Sverige Phone: (+45) 33 69 13 69 Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33 office@oxfordresearch.se www.oxfordresearch.se