1. Unit 2 Ch 6-11 Inputs to US Government

2. Public opinion Shared attitudes of many people on politics, issues, etc. Measured by opinion polls –Usually by professional polling companies – media & politicians pay –Must be valid to be reliable

3. Why do politicians care? Public opinion = election success Strategy – what issues to focus on –Not what to believe (usually) –Only if newly important issue – (no evidence of previous policy stance) –There is video evidence if politicians change their minds (flip-floppers!)

4. Is this bad? We want consistency –But we also want representation –Our opinions change over time, but we want politicians to be decisive If they want to win, they don’t contradict public opinion

5. 2 ideas about representatives Delegates –Sent as mouthpieces of constituency –Follow public opinion to the letter, no conscience or judgment allowed Trustees –Given autonomy to make decisions –Use best judgment for public interest

6. Delegates & trustees Difference in real life –Whatever the voters want Politicians want to be trustees, voters want them to be delegates

7. Reliability in polling Polls are more reliable if: –Random & representative sample Allows for smaller margin of error –Valid, unbiased questions & analysis

8. Potential problems w/polls Selection bias –People choose not to participate Biased/leading questions Intensity –Polls don’t always measure passion Latency –Ideas on the “back burner”

9. Push polls Attempt to “push” respondents to desired result Parties & candidates –Biased, leading questions –Try to create bandwagon effect

10. Important opinion polls Presidential approval rating –Most important poll in US politics –Every week since 1937 –Typical phrasing: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?"

11. Presidential approval rating Honeymoon period –Usually high at beginning of term –Americans give Pres a chance Fluctuates based on policies & response to events Always drops later when promises become disappointing reality

12. George W. Bush Holds record for both highest & lowest approval ratings ever Highest – 90% Sept 2001 Lowest – 25%Oct 2008

13. George W. Bush

14. Barack Obama

15. Presidential approval rating POTUS’s relationship w / Congress –Other party unlikely to stand up to a popular POTUS –If POTUS is unpopular – own party runs from him (esp. in an election yr)

16. Other important polls Campaign polls –“If the election were held today, who would win your vote?” –Problems: What if they don’t vote? What if they change their minds? Reliable if likely voters asked close to election date

17. Other important polls Exit polls –Voters polled in the parking lot –Reliable: Not a prediction – an actual vote –Unreliable: Random/representative sample? –News media use this to predict results – usually very good

18. Bad exit polls 1980 – Reagan / Carter –NBC declared for Reagan at 8:30 EST –Did PST Dems decide not to vote? 2000 – Bush / Gore –Florida debacle

19. Mass Media Media ownership –America compared to world –US: Need ratings for revenue

20. Mass Media Media history –Early – newspapers political –Progressive Era – crusaders –Modern – strive for impartiality

21. Mass Media Media bias –Reporters tend to be liberal –Any bias in reporting tends to be against incumbents Crusading for weak against strong Desire for interesting stories

22. Mass Media Media restrictions –FCC –Fairness Doctrine

23. Mass Media Media and politics –Don’t cover in-depth issues –Campaign events –Campaign polls (horse race)

24. Mass Media Media and politics –Releases & briefings –Press conferences / press secretary –Leaks – trial balloons On/off record / backgrounders

25. Mass Media What limits influence of media? –Selective exposure Avoid exposure to media that goes against your beliefs –Selective perception Filter what you see through your own bias (hear what you want to)

26. Mass Media What limits influence of media? –Attentive public Only about 30-35% of Americans pay attention to the news at all