1. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage Dolf Gielen Jacek Podkanski International Energy Agency, Paris Clearwater Coal Conference, 17-21 April 2005

2. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Topics Why CCS ? The ETP model Results Conclusions

3. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Part 1: Why CCS ?

4. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CCS pros Fossil fuels will remain a dominant energy source in the next 50 years; CCS can result in a drastic emissions reduction; Very suited for large point sources; Realistic policy potential.

5. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Part 2: The ETP Model

6. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios The ETP model Energy Technology Perspectives model Technology rich partial equilibrium model 15 world regions; From “well to wheel”; Detailed characterization of existing and new energy technologies; Selects CCS or other technology options from technology database, based on cost-effectiveness.

7. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Model input data CO 2 capture, transportation and storage is modelled separately; Capture in electricity sector, manufacturing industry, fuels processing; Storage: aquifers, EOR (incl. depleted oil fields), EGR (incl. depleted gas fields), ECBM. Oceanic storage is not considered; Existing and new CCS technologies; Other options to mitigate CO 2 emissions; CO 2 incentives 10-25-50-100 USD/t CO 2.

8. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Example GLO50: A gradual introduction of CO 2 incentives

9. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Part 3: Results

10. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Capture potential 2050 5-19 Gt CO 2 /yr

11. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Key uncertainties Key parameters Policy ambition + scope (penalty level + developing countries yes/no) Nuclear expansion potential CCS technology progress Less important parameters GDP growth Renewables characteristics Market structure

12. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios IGCC/Coal plays a key role

13. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios IGCC and steam cycles Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO 2 capture and storage Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%

14. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Coal use with CCS

15. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Decline in coal use w/o CCS

16. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Transportation fuels Coal derived fuels

17. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios CCS use for transportation fuels

18. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Hydrogen production

19. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Part 4: Conclusions

20. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Conclusions If CO 2 emission mitigation is taken seriously, CCS will play an important role; With CCS coal has a future in a CO 2 constrained world; This has important supply security benefits; Incentives of 10-50 $/t CO 2 needed; Mainly an electricity sector option, but also possibilities in transportation fuel production; IGCC with synfuel cogeneration looks attractive, if investment cost <2000 USD/kW; Combine biomass co-combustion and CCS?

21. PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Thank you dolf.gielen@iea.org December 2004 www.iea.org