1. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Logic ‑ based Evaluation of Forest Ecosystem Sustainability Keith M. Reynolds, USDA Forest Service

2. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Acknowledgments  USDA Forest Service Washington Office National Forest System, Ecosystem Management National Forest System, Ecosystem Management  Pacific Northwest Research Station Human and Natural Resource Interactions RD&A Program Human and Natural Resource Interactions RD&A Program

3. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Objectives 1.Illustrate the utility of a logic-based approach in designing a formal specification to evaluate the National criteria and indicators. 2.Highlight the roles of science and policy in this effort. 3.Illustrate the current national prototype.

4. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Background  Knowledge bases and logic modeling  Analysis  Model design issues

5. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Knowledge bases (logic model)  A formal logical representation of how to evaluate information  Networks of interrelated topics  Mental map  Executable

6. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Knowledge bases: forms of uncertainty  Probabilistic uncertainty Uncertainty of events Uncertainty of events  Linguistic uncertainty Uncertainty about the definition of events Uncertainty about the definition of events  Vagueness or imprecision A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which one can assign a measure of strength of evidence A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which one can assign a measure of strength of evidence

7. Knowledge bases: networks of networks Concern 1 Ecostate AEcostate B Ecostate CEcostate DData link = network Concern 2 Etc. Data

8. Knowledge bases: evaluation Concern 1 Ecostate A Ecostate BEcostate C Data link Get data requirements Evaluate data

9. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Logic models: strength of evidence An example: slope is suitable for tractor logging. Bivalent reasoning YesNo Degrees of support Yes No Partial

10. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Analysis: National C&I  The Montreal specifications provide relatively clear definitions of biophysical, socioeconomic, and framework attributes requiring evaluation (WGCICSMTBF 1995)...  But, design of evaluation procedures that allow interpretation of the National C&I is one of the major technical issues that remain to be resolved (Raison et al. 2001).

11. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Analysis: conceptual framework (Davis et al., 2001) 1.Specified conditions or outcomes to be sustained (the indicators). 2.A measure for each condition or outcome. 3.Calculation of the level of the indicator over some time period using the selected measure. 4.A frame of reference for gauging sustainability. 5.Methods for evaluating sustainability (sustainability check). 6.A monitoring program. 7.A formalism that supports requirements 1 to 6.

12. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Analysis: logic models as design frameworks  Logic models (knowledge bases) provide a formal specification for organizing and interpreting information.  NetWeaver and logic Problem represented in terms of propositions about topics of interest and their interdependencies. Problem represented in terms of propositions about topics of interest and their interdependencies. Topics translated into propositions. Topics translated into propositions. Lexical uncertainty. Lexical uncertainty.

13. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Analysis: logic models as design frameworks (continued)  Need for transparency (Prabhu et al. 2001) Models embody important policy decisions. Models embody important policy decisions. Models depend on value judgments and critical assumptions that need clear documentation. Models depend on value judgments and critical assumptions that need clear documentation.  Model development Graphic representation is an effective basis for organizing discussion and for evolution of design. Graphic representation is an effective basis for organizing discussion and for evolution of design.  Communication Between scientists and policy makers. Between scientists and policy makers. With interested publics. With interested publics.

14. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Design issues  Model organization  Options for synthesis  Weighting  Reference conditions  Qualitative measures  Uncertainties revisited

15. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Peer review  John Gordon, Yale  Jerry Franklin, UW  Norm Johnson, OSU  Hal Salwasser, OSU  Richard Haynes, PNW  Darrel Kenops, R6  Gloria Brown, R6  Dick Phillips, R6  Sara Crim, R6  Jon Martin, R6  Denise Lach, OSU  Gordie Reeves, PNW

16. Biophysical criteria Pacific Coast Interior west Northeast South Carbon Cycle Biodiversity Productive Capacity Ecosystem Health Evidence

17. Criterion 1 – Forest Biodiversity Indicators 1-5 – Ecosystem Diversity Indicators 6-7 – Species Diversity Indicator 8-9 – Genetic Diversity Evidence

18. Criterion 5 – Forest Carbon Indicator 26 – Total Biomass Indicator 27 – Biomass Accumulation Rate Indicator 28 – Product Storage Evidence

19. Socio-economic Indicators Pacific Coast Interior west Northeast South Production capacity Recreation Investment Employment Evidence

20. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station Some final thoughts 1.Lexical uncertainty is an important issue in evaluation of many measurement endpoints. 2.Many aspects of evaluating sustainability cannot be answered by science alone. 3.Acquiring data on sustainability is necessary, but not sufficient, for setting policy or management evaluation. 4.Evaluating sustainability is not the same as defining desired future conditions. 5.Evaluating the state of sustainability and deciding how to respond are separate but interdependent decision processes. 6.The clearest, and most critical, role of science is in development of reference conditions.

21. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station The author  Keith M. Reynolds USDA Forest Service USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Pacific Northwest Research Station Email: kreynolds@fs.fed.us Email: kreynolds@fs.fed.uskreynolds@fs.fed.us Website: www.institute.redlands.edu/emds Website: www.institute.redlands.edu/emds Phone: 541-750-7434 Phone: 541-750-7434