1. Holt MS Sarah McKenzie PhD October 27, 2009

2. Staff Questions: Q) Is one test more difficult than another? How do we know that if the scale score falls that this means they actually regressed? Is the 4 th grade actually easier like we hear it is? A) The scale is what it is- all tests are, in theory, equally difficult- based on state standards.

3. Staff Questions: Q) Why are literacy scores across the nation lower than math scores – HMS also- for AR A) Good- Question- ?Greater variability in scores on literacy assessments.

4. Arkansas SAT 10 Reading

5. FPS SAT 10 Reading

6. Arkansas SAT 10 Math

7. FPS SAT 10 Math

8. Staff Questions: Q) Need access to 5 th grade scores – 6 th grade teachers A) Color Charts

9. Staff Questions: Q) What are schools (with our demographics – and whose students are scoring much higher) doing differently than us? Holt FRLP-49% Enroll=375 http://normessasweb.uark.edu Schoolperformance Advanced Compare

11. Staff Questions: GradeSchoolL%ContentStyleSFUMech 6thHolt745.8 6.56.96.6 PG796.26.37.17.26.8 Harrison856.2 6.87.06.6 Searcy886.36.47.17.26.9 7thHolt735.8 7.17.47.2 Searcy806.3 7.37.57.1 BVille826.3 7.27.57.3 Pea Ridge826.26.37.37.57.3

12. Staff Questions: Q) Do we have statewide information about: –Average scale score growth –# moving up or down in proficiency levels A) Not at this time....

13. Making Growth Concern: –Difficult to measure growth of students whose scale score points were already high – where can they go? Answer: District Growth Ratio: –Expected growth based on district performance of ‘like’ students- by Grade and Proficiency Class –Based on prior year’s score... 50 = same growth as experienced by other students Above 50- more growth than experienced by other students Below 50- less growth than experienced by other students

14. Math Example Student2008 Scsc 2008 PRCL 2009 Scsc 2009 PRCL DGR-Math Kaitlyn626Pro.775Adv.56.42 Susan626Pro.704Pro.50.33 Andrew626Pro.663Pro.46.83

15. District Growth Ratio Grade2008 Proficiency Class N Lit Lit DGRN Math Math GDR 6-Sixth1-Below Basic1147.362949.71 2-Basic3752.242551.10 3-Proficient6850.567251.20 4-Advanced5049.994053.41 7-Seventh1-Below Basic654.64654.94 2-Basic3348.041547.25 3-Proficient4950.214545.95 4-Advanced5651.087946.13

16. Literacy Movement over time...

17. Math Movement over time...

18. AYP: Who is Counting Oct 1 enrollment: –219 FRLP –83 AA, 58 Hispanic, 257 Caucasian –44 LEP (per ESL data) –54 Special Education

19. SPED ‘09 performance 44 SPED students have 09 data – 9/44 proficient in literacy ‘09 (20.5%) –15/44 proficient in math ‘09 (34.1%) No 09 data for 10 SPED students In order to make SH for literacy- need to have 45.2% proficient (25/54 students)

20. Predicting the Future!

21. Identifying Students Most Likely to Score Not Proficient Identify relationships between student performance from one year to the next Based on historical data Not indicating how it COULD be or SHOULD be, just how it has been Lots of factors influence performance –Learning context, individual characteristics, etc. You can change the future!

22. Students ‘Grow’ at Different Rates

23. Students Grow at Different Rates Cut Score- 3rd grade Cut Score- 4th grade

24. WARNING The following slides contain material that is graphic and mathematical in nature. Persons with limited math experience or extreme math anxiety should breathe deeply several times!

29. Predicted Literacy Proficiency for those with 09 data (AYP=67.6%) Caucasian 86.3 % (196/227) Combined 79.2% (290/366) Hispanic 70.0 % (35/50) FRLP 65.2 % (124/190) AA 63.4 % (51/78) SPED 25.0% (11/44)

30. Predicted BM Math Proficiency for those with 09 data (AYP=64.55%) Caucasian 92.1 % (209/227) Combined 88.0% (323/367) Hispanic 92.2 % (47/51) FRLP 81.7 % (156/191) AA 73.1 % (57/78) SPED 47.7% (21/44)

31. So What? Such identification allows for more focused INTERVENTION- maximizing your resources for those kids who need it the most These students could benefit from something MORE or DIFFERENT than all those great things you are already doing YOU can change the future!

32. What this DOESN’T Mean Not a guarantee- just a best guess Based on what you have already been doing- keep doing that! Not a one-size fits all- each kid is different Models will continue to be refined and developed Incorporating other data sources

33. Make it and take it.. Data sets (in Excel) including data for students identified as being AT HIGH RISK for scoring not proficient in the Spring in Math and/or Literacy Literacy: 56 gr.6 / 63 gr.7 Math: 33 gr.6 / 53 gr.7 Both: 30 gr.6 / 43 gr.7 –SPED: 13 gr.6 / 19 gr.7