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HAMA 2 October 2009 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global.

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Presentation on theme: "HAMA 2 October 2009 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global."— Presentation transcript:

1 HAMA 2 October 2009 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global

2 Presentation Outline Global / U.S. Overview Chain Scales Markets Pipeline 2009 / 2010 Forecast

3 bobby@smithtravelresearch.com www.strglobal.com 615.824.8664 x3321 Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation?

4 Europe € H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD -0.4% -5.1% -19.4% ME & A $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 25.7% 17% -15.9% Asia Pacific $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 12.5% 1.8% -28.4% United States $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 1.6% -1.9% -18.3% UK £ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 2.5% -0.4% -11.1% Global RevPAR % Change August 2009 YTD

5 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2008 / August 2009 YTD

6 Total United States Weekday / Weekend Percent Change August 2009 YTD Weekends = Friday / Saturday

7 Total United States Quarterly RevPar Percent Change / 2007 - 2Q 09

8 Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 3.1% -6.6% -1.1% - 4.8%

9 Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 -3.4% -6.8% -9.5% -6.3% -4.7% 0.1%

10 Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. -10.5% - 15.1%

11 Chain Scales

12 STR Chain Scales Selected Brands by Category Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton Upscale – Courtyard, Springhill Suites, Crowne Plaza Midscale with F&B – Holiday Inn, Best Western, Quality Midscale no F&B – Hampton, TownePlace, H.I. Express Economy – Days Inn, Red Roof, Econolodge

13 Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change August 2009 YTD

14 Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change August 2009 YTD

15 Chain Scale Occupancy Percent August 2009 YTD

16 Chain Scales Average Daily Rate August 2009 YTD

17 United States – Upper Tier Hotels 28 Day Moving Average Group & Transient Demand % Change Jan 31, 2008 – September 26 th, 2009

18 United States – Upper Tier Hotels 28 Day Moving Average Group & Transient ADR % Change Jan 31, 2008 – September 26 th, 2009

19 Total U.S. RevPAR - Monthly Percent Change January 2008 – September 2009 2009 2008 September based on reporting through 9.26

20 Total U.S. Average Daily Rate - Monthly Percent Change January 2008 – September 2009 2009 2008 September based on reporting through 9.26

21 Total U.S. Occupancy - Monthly Percent Change January 2008 – September 2009 2009 2008 September based on reporting through 9.26

22 Market Performance

23 Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S. Key Performance Indicators Percent Change August 2009 YTD

24 Key 15 Markets RevPar Percent Change August YTD 2009 Excludes Las Vegas

25 15 Markets outside the Top 25 RevPar Percent Change August YTD 2009

26 Pipeline

27 Total United States Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Prior Year Aug 2009 Aug 2008 Change % Chg In Construction 130,471 195,947 -65,476 -33.4% “Planned” Pipeline 345,050 463,843 -118,793 -25.6% Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

28 Total U.S. Hotel Rooms Under Construction and Percent Change January 2003 –August 2009 Under Construction room percentage change measured against same month, prior year.

29 Total United States Rooms Under Construction by Scale – In Thousands August 2009 Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

30 Top Brands – Rooms Under Construction August 2009 – in Thousands Top 10 brands = 45% U.S. under construction rooms

31 Top 10 MSAs – Rooms Under Construction August 2009 – in Thousands 39% of all under construction rooms

32 Top 10 MSAs Rooms Under Construction - % Existing Supply August 2009

33 Projections

34 U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – September 2009 20082009F2010F Real GDP+0.4%-2.6%+2.4% CPI+3.8%-0.5%+1.8% Corporate Profits -11.8% -8.1%+9.8% Disp Personal Income +0.5%+0.8%+1.7% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.2% 9.8%

35 Total U.S. Hotel Rooms Sold vs. Real GDP Change Quarterly Change – 1988 to 2009 2Q Real GDP and Lodging Demand measured against same quarter, prior year. Real GDP left scale / Rooms sold right scale.

36 Real GDP Growth Forecast Quarterly Percent Change vs. Same Quarter Prior Year Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators – 10 September 2009

37 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2009 & 2010 Forecast

38 Total US Industry Consecutive Quarterly Declines Key Indicators 1990/ 1991 2001/ 2002 Current (Q2-09) Estimate 2008/09 Demand3569 Occupancy76711 ADR0539 RevPAR5549 Room Revenue2547

39 Total United States Supply, Demand & Occupancy Forecast Q3 2009 – Q4 2010 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

40 Total United States ADR, RevPar and Room Revenue Forecast Q3 2009 – Q4 2010

41 Total United States Occupancy Percent 2003 – 2010P

42 Total United States Average Daily Rate 2003 – 2010P

43 If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year… Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2010E

44 STR Chain Scale Forecast 20092010 Segment RevPar Chg RevPar Chg Luxury -25.0 / -28.0 -7.0 / -10.0 Upper Upscale -18.0 / -21.0 -1.0 / -4.0 Upscale -16.0 / -19.0 -5.0 / -8.0 Midscale with F&B -12.5 / -15.5 -3.0 / -6.0 Midscale without F&B -10.5 / -13.5 +1.0 / -2.0 Economy -13.0 / -16.0 Flat / -3.0 Forecast produced August 2009

45 Takeaways Decline is global Supply growth still an issue Demand declines may be near bottom ADR weakness continues “Less Worse” 2H 2009 Moderate improvement 2010 Meaningful growth anticipated 2011


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