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HAMA 2 October 2009 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global
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Presentation Outline Global / U.S. Overview Chain Scales Markets Pipeline 2009 / 2010 Forecast
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bobby@smithtravelresearch.com www.strglobal.com 615.824.8664 x3321 Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation?
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Europe € H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD -0.4% -5.1% -19.4% ME & A $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 25.7% 17% -15.9% Asia Pacific $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 12.5% 1.8% -28.4% United States $ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 1.6% -1.9% -18.3% UK £ H1 08 YE 08 09 YTD 2.5% -0.4% -11.1% Global RevPAR % Change August 2009 YTD
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Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2008 / August 2009 YTD
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Total United States Weekday / Weekend Percent Change August 2009 YTD Weekends = Friday / Saturday
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Total United States Quarterly RevPar Percent Change / 2007 - 2Q 09
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Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. 3.1% -6.6% -1.1% - 4.8%
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Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 -3.4% -6.8% -9.5% -6.3% -4.7% 0.1%
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Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to August 2009 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc. -10.5% - 15.1%
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Chain Scales
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STR Chain Scales Selected Brands by Category Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton Upscale – Courtyard, Springhill Suites, Crowne Plaza Midscale with F&B – Holiday Inn, Best Western, Quality Midscale no F&B – Hampton, TownePlace, H.I. Express Economy – Days Inn, Red Roof, Econolodge
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Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change August 2009 YTD
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Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change August 2009 YTD
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Chain Scale Occupancy Percent August 2009 YTD
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Chain Scales Average Daily Rate August 2009 YTD
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United States – Upper Tier Hotels 28 Day Moving Average Group & Transient Demand % Change Jan 31, 2008 – September 26 th, 2009
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United States – Upper Tier Hotels 28 Day Moving Average Group & Transient ADR % Change Jan 31, 2008 – September 26 th, 2009
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Total U.S. RevPAR - Monthly Percent Change January 2008 – September 2009 2009 2008 September based on reporting through 9.26
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Total U.S. Average Daily Rate - Monthly Percent Change January 2008 – September 2009 2009 2008 September based on reporting through 9.26
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Total U.S. Occupancy - Monthly Percent Change January 2008 – September 2009 2009 2008 September based on reporting through 9.26
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Market Performance
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Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S. Key Performance Indicators Percent Change August 2009 YTD
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Key 15 Markets RevPar Percent Change August YTD 2009 Excludes Las Vegas
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15 Markets outside the Top 25 RevPar Percent Change August YTD 2009
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Pipeline
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Total United States Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Prior Year Aug 2009 Aug 2008 Change % Chg In Construction 130,471 195,947 -65,476 -33.4% “Planned” Pipeline 345,050 463,843 -118,793 -25.6% Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
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Total U.S. Hotel Rooms Under Construction and Percent Change January 2003 –August 2009 Under Construction room percentage change measured against same month, prior year.
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Total United States Rooms Under Construction by Scale – In Thousands August 2009 Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
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Top Brands – Rooms Under Construction August 2009 – in Thousands Top 10 brands = 45% U.S. under construction rooms
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Top 10 MSAs – Rooms Under Construction August 2009 – in Thousands 39% of all under construction rooms
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Top 10 MSAs Rooms Under Construction - % Existing Supply August 2009
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Projections
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U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – September 2009 20082009F2010F Real GDP+0.4%-2.6%+2.4% CPI+3.8%-0.5%+1.8% Corporate Profits -11.8% -8.1%+9.8% Disp Personal Income +0.5%+0.8%+1.7% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.2% 9.8%
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Total U.S. Hotel Rooms Sold vs. Real GDP Change Quarterly Change – 1988 to 2009 2Q Real GDP and Lodging Demand measured against same quarter, prior year. Real GDP left scale / Rooms sold right scale.
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Real GDP Growth Forecast Quarterly Percent Change vs. Same Quarter Prior Year Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators – 10 September 2009
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Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 2009 & 2010 Forecast
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Total US Industry Consecutive Quarterly Declines Key Indicators 1990/ 1991 2001/ 2002 Current (Q2-09) Estimate 2008/09 Demand3569 Occupancy76711 ADR0539 RevPAR5549 Room Revenue2547
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Total United States Supply, Demand & Occupancy Forecast Q3 2009 – Q4 2010 2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
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Total United States ADR, RevPar and Room Revenue Forecast Q3 2009 – Q4 2010
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Total United States Occupancy Percent 2003 – 2010P
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Total United States Average Daily Rate 2003 – 2010P
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If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year… Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2010E
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STR Chain Scale Forecast 20092010 Segment RevPar Chg RevPar Chg Luxury -25.0 / -28.0 -7.0 / -10.0 Upper Upscale -18.0 / -21.0 -1.0 / -4.0 Upscale -16.0 / -19.0 -5.0 / -8.0 Midscale with F&B -12.5 / -15.5 -3.0 / -6.0 Midscale without F&B -10.5 / -13.5 +1.0 / -2.0 Economy -13.0 / -16.0 Flat / -3.0 Forecast produced August 2009
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Takeaways Decline is global Supply growth still an issue Demand declines may be near bottom ADR weakness continues “Less Worse” 2H 2009 Moderate improvement 2010 Meaningful growth anticipated 2011
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