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MINISTRY OF FINANCE1 Budapest Stock Exchange Roadshow June 2002, London MR. CSABA LÁSZLÓ MINISTER OF FINANCE REPUBLIC OF HUNGARY
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE2 Where Are We Now? Growth process bottoming out Fiscal positions External balance
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE3 Main Policy Principles Predictability Focusing on competitiveness Increasing transparency
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE4 Towards the European Union Negotiations to be finished in 2002 Judgement of Hungary’s performance should not depend on others Expected entry in 2004
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE5 Annual GDP Growth Rate
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE6 General Government Deficit (in % of GDP, ESA95 standard)
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE7 Current Account Balance (in % of GDP)
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE8 Monetary Conditions Inflation targeting Substantial deceleration of inflation Declining base rate Towards the Eurozone
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE9 Consumer Price Index
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE10 Short-Term Policy Goals Back to the growth potential Substantially declining fiscal deficit from 2003 Further decreasing inflation
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE11 Short-Term Policy Steps Fiscal policy: Reduction of tax burden Entrepreneur-friendly tax administration Strengthening of tax enforcement More efficient use of government resources
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE12 Short-Term Policy Steps Structural policy: Supporting SMEs Shrinking gap between regions Promoting R&D activities Investor-friendly environment
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE13 Short-Term Policy Steps Income policy: Balanced income distribution Operative framework for interest reconciliation among economic actors
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE14 Policy Coordination Greater role of fiscal policy in demand management Avoid substantial further appreciation in real exchange rate of HUF Policy rates declining in line with inflation
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE15 Reinventing the Budapest Stock Exchange Supporting local investor demand for shares Providing attractive supply on the BSE
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE16 Supporting Demand Towards a mature savings structure The role of private pension funds Creating liquidity
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE17 Savings Structure Developments Gross financial assets of households below 50% of GDP 9% of assets in investment funds, 2.5% in shares Increasing role of life assurance and pension funds (15% of assets)
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE18 The Role of Pension Funds Dynamic growth helped by continuing reform Contribution to be increased to 8% of gross wages Compulsory participation to be reintroduced Less than 10% of portfolio in BSE traded shares
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE19 Where is the Liquidity? Liquidity suffers globally in bear markets 60% drop on BSE is comparable to regional experience Elimination of capital gains tax may help
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE20 Creating Supply Re-starting privatisation via the BSE Encourage private companies to list shares
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE21 The Last Wave of Privatisation Government is committed to privatisation Few evident short-term candidates for listing Regulatory risk is considerable
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE22 Private Companies: A Special Situation Privatisation and greenfield FDI brought domination of strategic investors 2/3 of top 200 companies unlikely to be listed How to make the BSE more representative of the economy?
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE23 Encouraging Private Listings Analysing reasons is important Government to ease the burden of listing Psychological barriers hard to break
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MINISTRY OF FINANCE24 Where Do We Go? Impressive performance in the past 5 years Present minor anomalies to be corrected Return to long-term sustainabe growth path Convergence to European Union standards
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