1. A Systems Approach to Preventing and Controlling Non-communicable Diseases in Low Resource and Emerging Economies: K.M.Venkat Narayan Ruth and O.C. Hubert Professor Emory University, Atlanta Consortium of Universities of Global Health, Seattle, 20 September, 2010

2. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1002024

4. Two types of approaches to combating a problem  Transformational – that aims to achieve large, permanent improvements in broad social and economic indicators  Marginal – that attempts to solve a specific problem for a targeted group of beneficiaries Bendavid, Miller. JAMA, 2010

5. Some desirable qualities of a health system for NCD  Data for decision-making & evaluation  Decisions should be evidence-based  Resource allocation proportional to expected outcomes  Integrated and organized care  Low-cost & affordable interventions  Scalablity

6. Setting intervention priorities in developing countries - Challenges  Little direct evidence on the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of interventions in developed countries  Translating evidence from developed countries to the context of developing countries

7. Assessing Priorities for Implementation Disease Control Priorities-2 Chapter 30 http://www.dcp2.org/pubs/DCP Program Priorities R&D Priorities 1.Burden 2.Intervention effectiveness & cost-effectiveness 3. Level of implementation or quality of care

8. Methods for setting intervention priorities in developing countries  Translating the cost-effectiveness evidence from developed countries to the context of developing countries by assuming Same effectiveness Different costs for the intervention and medical care  Feasibility of interventions Reach Technical complexity Capital intensity Cultural acceptability  Ranking interventions to set implementation priority

9. Levels of Intervention Priorities  One Cost saving and highly feasible  Two Cost saving or cost <1,500/QALY and pose some feasibility challenges  Three Cost 1,500-8,550/QALY and pose considerable feasible challenges

10. Primary Prevention Interventions for Diabetes InterventionCost/QALY (2001 $) FeasibilityPriority Prev (L/S)130++1 Prev (Metformin)3,630++3

11. Secondary Prevention - Priority One Interventions InterventionCost/QALY (2001 $) Latin America Feasibility Control HbA1c <9%Cost saving++++ BP <160/95Cost saving++++ Foot careCost saving++++

12. Secondary Prevention - Priority Two Interventions InterventionCost/QALY (2001 $) Latin America Feasibility Preconp careCost saving++ Fluvac360++++ Eye exam700++ Smoking cessation 1,450++ ACE-I for all1,020+++

13. Secondary Prevention - Priority Three Interventions InterventionCost/QALY (2001 $) Latin America Feasibility TC <200 mg/dl7,350+++ HbA1c<8%4,000++ Screening DM8,550++ Microab test5,510++

14. Need direct evidence from developing countries Two examples 1. Primary prevention translation trial in Chennai, India 2. Secondary prevention translation trial in eight centers in India/Pakistan

15. CDC CENTERS FOR DISEASE COTROL AND PREVENTION Intervention Studies: 1  Prevention IDF BRiDGES Translation Trial (D-CLIP) Evaluate effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, sustainability of culturally-congruent, low-cost 1  prevention strategies Screening 12-15,000 people; n=700 Pre-diabetes (IFG, IGT, both) randomized Lifestyle delivered by lay educators / community ambassadors + Peer support groups Metformin after 4 m, if needed (ADA guidelines)

16. Program Evaluation 1.Effectiveness 2.Cost-effectiveness 3.Sustainability 4.Scalability under discussion

17. CDC CENTERS FOR DISEASE COTROL AND PREVENTION NHLBI/Ovations Centre for CArdiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia - CARRS New Delhi Chennai Karachi Atlanta K.M. Venkat Narayan M.K. Ali E.W. Gregg M. Kadir D. Prabhakaran K. Srinath Reddy N. Tandon V. Mohan Research Coordinating Centre (RCC) at Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI)

18. CDC CENTERS FOR DISEASE COTROL AND PREVENTION Intervention Studies: 2  Prevention Ovations/NHLBI Translation Trial (CARRS) Evaluate effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, sustainability of low- cost, multi-factorial 2  prevention strategies n=1,120 people with diabetes at 8 centers Care coordinator Decision support software Guidelines driven comprehensive diabetes and CVD management

19. Site Randomized Individuals AssignmentOutcomes CARRS Translation Trial 140 70 140 70 8 sitesTotal sample ~ 1,120 Control Usual care Intervention Supported Intensive care 1.Care coordinator 2.Decision Support 3.Guidelines 1° Outcome Proportion achieving multiple RF control (HbA 1 c & 1 other) 2° Outcomes Cost-effectiveness QOL Satisfaction

20. Conclusions  By systematically implementing known cost- effective interventions Diabetes incidence can be halved Diabetes complications can be halved  Better data on effectiveness and cost- effectiveness in developing country settings are needed  Investing in programs of unproven effectiveness or cost-ineffectiveness is a waste of limited resources  Need to invest in system infrastructure

21. Quantity of Unmet MDG Progress IMRChild Mortality TB MortalityHIV Prevalence 10% higher GDP per capita -0.17%-0.16%-1.80%1.10% 1% GDP Higher health spending -2.23%-2.35%-3.57%-2.96% 1 Additional physician/10,000 -0.38%-0.26%-1.47%-0.09% 10% Higher NCD Mortality rate 6.32%5.78%7.56%2.03% Stuckler et al. PLoS 2010 Why Child Health and Infectious Disease Improvements Depend on Reducing NCD Mortality?