2. Rural Commuting Commuting and Economic Functions of Rural Small Towns and Places RURAL PLANNING SEMINAR

3. General Factors for Commuting Three majors factors for increased commuting in the U.S. – Post WWII Three majors factors for increased commuting in the U.S. – Post WWII –Increased use of the automobile –Boom in worker supply due to baby boom –Shift to suburban areas –Growing affluence

4. RURAL OUT-COMMUTING Integral Integral part of non-metro life 90% 90% of non-metro commutes are to non- metro locations 90-95% 90-95% are in private vehicles 70% 70% drive alone

5. Aggregate Commuting by Size Size of Community Commuting Out Commuting In <than 2,500 44%18% 2,500 to 10,00041%62% >10,00025%63%

7. Some Characteristic Midwest and West have very large out- commuting rates and distances South is the highest in reverse commuting – workers commute outward, while merchants commute inward

8. Commuting Outside Place of Residence

9. Commuting Factors Commuting to higher wages Commuting to higher wages More affordable housing More affordable housing Pushed out of high cost areas Pushed out of high cost areas...Today, as a result of recent decades of rural population loss, houses and store buildings in some rural villages have become vacant. Absentee landlords…have cut them up into apartments, which they now rent at rates that are considerably lower than rents in the larger towns or nearby cities.... Thus, some small villages have become de facto low-income housing sites.

10. Rural Commuting Characteristics To Work 47% 4 min 36 min To Work 47% 4 min 36 min Shopping 21% 3 min 45 min Shopping 21% 3 min 45 min Entertainment 10% 5 min 50 min Entertainment 10% 5 min 50 min Personal 10% 3 min 31 min Personal 10% 3 min 31 min Recreation 02% 8 min 37 min Recreation 02% 8 min 37 min Other 10% Other 10%

11. Rural O/D Models Suggest Metropolitan place bound residences take 25% less trips that rural residences Metropolitan place bound residences take 25% less trips that rural residences Metropolitan residences spend 30% more time in private autos than rural residences Metropolitan residences spend 30% more time in private autos than rural residences Rural and semi-rural residences within the CEA have the highest commuting times in the USA. The variables associated with this long commute are: Rural and semi-rural residences within the CEA have the highest commuting times in the USA. The variables associated with this long commute are: Affordable housing Affordable housing Wage and job rates increase as the distance to metro decreases Wage and job rates increase as the distance to metro decreases Specialization and variety of goods in shopping trips Specialization and variety of goods in shopping trips Recreational opportunities Recreational opportunities

12. Data Suggests Rural travel distance to work appears to be increasing as the proportion of shorter work trips has declined, while the proportion of longer work trips has increased. Rural travel distance to work appears to be increasing as the proportion of shorter work trips has declined, while the proportion of longer work trips has increased. In contrast, rural travel time, and travel distance for workers living outside the metropolitan areas were much shorter than the national average for a majority of commuters. At the same time, a subset of workers in rural areas (18%) had the longest travel times in the USA. These trips are set at 50 miles or more In contrast, rural travel time, and travel distance for workers living outside the metropolitan areas were much shorter than the national average for a majority of commuters. At the same time, a subset of workers in rural areas (18%) had the longest travel times in the USA. These trips are set at 50 miles or more

13. Take Home Questions Is a good job something you must leave home to find? Is a good job something you must leave home to find? Will rural commute time decrease with the advent of tele-workers at home? Will rural commute time decrease with the advent of tele-workers at home? Does rural "compact community" promote lower commuting times Does rural "compact community" promote lower commuting times Does an inter-modal form of commuting have any hope of penetrating the rural market? Does an inter-modal form of commuting have any hope of penetrating the rural market?

14. AND … Rural Migration The objective of the study is to investigate the relationship between why persons move to rural areas - and the characteristics of these in-migrants. The study explores which characteristics have the greatest influence of people's decisions to move and also reveals how the inter-relationship of these characteristics affect attitudes on mobility. The objective of the study is to investigate the relationship between why persons move to rural areas - and the characteristics of these in-migrants. The study explores which characteristics have the greatest influence of people's decisions to move and also reveals how the inter-relationship of these characteristics affect attitudes on mobility.

15. Mobility (Migration) Voluntary Mobility Decisions Result from: Voluntary Mobility Decisions Result from: PUSH - Perceived stress factors at the current location PUSH - Perceived stress factors at the current location PULL - Realizing greater satisfaction elsewhere PULL - Realizing greater satisfaction elsewhere BOTH - Combination of PUSH/PULL BOTH - Combination of PUSH/PULL

16. Determinants of Migration  Determinants of Migration (why people move - generally)  Determinants of Migration (why people move - generally) Base income Base income Perceived cost of living differentials Perceived cost of living differentials Employment opportunities Employment opportunities Education Education Age Age Local government services Local government services Quality of life factors Quality of life factors

17. Post Determinants Post Decision Determinants (Deciding where to move) Post Decision Determinants (Deciding where to move) Proximity to a CEA Proximity to a CEA General economic conditions at destination General economic conditions at destination Proximity to close relatives Proximity to close relatives Proximity to quality of life and leisure factors Proximity to quality of life and leisure factors Cost of living Cost of living Safety Safety Quality of schools Quality of schools Climate Climate

18. Economic/QOL Factors Economic versus Quality of Life Factors Economic versus Quality of Life Factors Rural migration studies with relatively high confidence levels indicate that there is an association between socio/econ status and a decision to relocate. Higher socio/econ status is associated with economic pull factors, while lower socio/econ status is associated with quality of life (push) factors Rural migration studies with relatively high confidence levels indicate that there is an association between socio/econ status and a decision to relocate. Higher socio/econ status is associated with economic pull factors, while lower socio/econ status is associated with quality of life (push) factors

19. Educational Factors Current Study - Education Factors Current Study - Education Factors Note: study confirms that metro to rural moves are most common within the state of initial residence and less than 100 miles - thus, this gives strength to the commuting hypothesis. Note: study confirms that metro to rural moves are most common within the state of initial residence and less than 100 miles - thus, this gives strength to the commuting hypothesis. Grade School 1.5% Grade School 1.5% Some High School 6.6 Some High School 6.6 High School GED 39.5 High School GED 39.5 Some College/Tech School 34.4 Some College/Tech School 34.4 College/Tech School 17.5 College/Tech School 17.5 Advanced Grad 10.6 Advanced Grad 10.6 600 surveyed N = 569 600 surveyed N = 569

20. Factors – Important + Very Important Ability to own home 1 (V. Important) 4 (both) Ability to own home 1 (V. Important) 4 (both) Housing Cost 2 2 Housing Cost 2 2 Near friend/family 3 5 Near friend/family 3 5 Quality of Schools 4 6 Quality of Schools 4 6 Cost of living 5 3 Cost of living 5 3 Job opportunity 6 9 Job opportunity 6 9 Housing quality 7 1 Housing quality 7 1 Distance to work 8 8 Distance to work 8 8 Local taxes 9 7 Local taxes 9 7 Cultural opportunities 10 10 Cultural opportunities 10 10

21. Logit Factors – Cross Correlation Higher income/more educated Higher income/more educated –Job opportunities –Housing quality –Short commute –Short quality –Low taxes

22. Retired Persons Location near family and friends Location near family and friends Local taxes Local taxes Lower Income – Less Educated Ability to Own Home Ability to Own Home Cost of Living Cost of Living

23. Population Rebound Currently, nonmetro areas are experiencing what some demographers interpret as a population rebound, the first since the 1970's. Research indicates that this trend is pervasive - however, not to be misinterpreted as a population boom since nonmetro population in the US only makes up 20.4% of the US population. Beale argues that the population increase has more to do with metro to nonmetro migration of domestic citizens than an international influx into the nonmetro counties. Economic incentives or job opportunities provided by nonmetro areas in the early 1990's is a major factor to consider when analyzing this demographic trend. However, job growth in the nonmetro area has stabilized since July 1995 and demographers are patiently waiting to see if the current rebound will continue, stabilize, or decline.

24. Population Rebound Explained 1. All economic classes of counties have been affected by the nonzero population rebound including farming, manufacturing and mining through an involvement of people. 1. All economic classes of counties have been affected by the nonzero population rebound including farming, manufacturing and mining through an involvement of people. 2. The 562 nonmetro counties that experienced population decline during this decade have experienced a slower rate of lose than during the decade of the 80's. 2. The 562 nonmetro counties that experienced population decline during this decade have experienced a slower rate of lose than during the decade of the 80's. 3. Rural counties experienced a 1.3 million population increase due to inmigration (taking into consideration outmigration) of individuals from metro areas. 3. Rural counties experienced a 1.3 million population increase due to inmigration (taking into consideration outmigration) of individuals from metro areas. 4. Components of change @ in population differ between metro and nonmetro areas. Metro growth=5.8% C 75% rate of natural increase, 25% migration, 30% internal exchange off-set by domestic outmigration 4. Components of change @ in population differ between metro and nonmetro areas. Metro growth=5.8% C 75% rate of natural increase, 25% migration, 30% internal exchange off-set by domestic outmigration 2. Nonmetro growth=5.1% C 50% domestic inmigration, 40% rate of natural increase, 10% international immigration. 2. Nonmetro growth=5.1% C 50% domestic inmigration, 40% rate of natural increase, 10% international immigration.

25. Boundary Changes Discussion: Often times when an adjacent rural area experiences growth the adjoining city will annex the community into their city limits to broaden the tax base. Some argue that one reason nonzero areas experienced decline in the 80's is because a large proportion of nonzero areas that experienced growth in the 70's became annexed. Thus, smaller nonmetro areas were left to restructure their economies to provide services once provided by the newly annexed areas. In the early 90's job growth was pervasive however, now we see that phenomena once again stabilizing as metro economic revitalization is complete. Do you Discussion: Often times when an adjacent rural area experiences growth the adjoining city will annex the community into their city limits to broaden the tax base. Some argue that one reason nonzero areas experienced decline in the 80's is because a large proportion of nonzero areas that experienced growth in the 70's became annexed. Thus, smaller nonmetro areas were left to restructure their economies to provide services once provided by the newly annexed areas. In the early 90's job growth was pervasive however, now we see that phenomena once again stabilizing as metro economic revitalization is complete. Do you think its possible that in the new millennium we may see some of the nonmetro areas experiencing the current rebound to be swallowed by adjacent metro cities in the wake of their economic rebound?

26. Growing Rural Counties 1/4 of the nonmetro counties experiencing growth account for 3/4 of all population growth in nonmetro areas. 1/4 of the nonmetro counties experiencing growth account for 3/4 of all population growth in nonmetro areas. Where are they?-- Majority found in the West (avg growth= 11.8%) Where are they?-- Majority found in the West (avg growth= 11.8%) The majority are found in the mountains and plateaus extending from the Rockies to the Mexico border. Ozarks, upper Midwest lake country, Florida, Blue Ridge Mountains, and outskirts of a thriving metro area The majority are found in the mountains and plateaus extending from the Rockies to the Mexico border. Ozarks, upper Midwest lake country, Florida, Blue Ridge Mountains, and outskirts of a thriving metro area 3. Types of Counties: 3. Types of Counties: 1. Retirement amenities (accounting for 46% of all nonmetro growth) however, growth is also attributed to young and middle aged since these amenities also attract these age groups 1. Retirement amenities (accounting for 46% of all nonmetro growth) however, growth is also attributed to young and middle aged since these amenities also attract these age groups 2. Middle range growth (national avg of 5.6%) is 2 of nonzero counties and have mixed economic nonspecialized, manufacturing, government, and others 2. Middle range growth (national avg of 5.6%) is 2 of nonzero counties and have mixed economic nonspecialized, manufacturing, government, and others

27. Rural Areas Not Affected 25% of all nonzero counties experiencing decline in the 90's did so at a slower rate than in the 80's. 25% of all nonzero counties experiencing decline in the 90's did so at a slower rate than in the 80's. Avg population was 13,000 C Avg population of rebounding areas 25,000 Avg population was 13,000 C Avg population of rebounding areas 25,000 1990-1995 only 1/7 of all counties experienced consistent population decline. 1990-1995 only 1/7 of all counties experienced consistent population decline. located in the Great Plains and Corn Belt (growth peaked at only 2% and is attributed to deaths over births not out- migration), Mississippi Delta, mining towns C decline due to more deaths than births. located in the Great Plains and Corn Belt (growth peaked at only 2% and is attributed to deaths over births not out- migration), Mississippi Delta, mining towns C decline due to more deaths than births.