1. 2/13/2014 1 Engineering & Technology Management Group What will Society look like in 2025 ? Tim Howard Society & Aerospace TC Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Systems Engineering ManagementHistory Society Legal Aspects Economics LogisticsSupply Chain Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development

2. 12/1/2005 Page 2 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Observations on Workforce 2025 Workforce available to the industry in 2025 is being formed as we speak –The 2005 mid-level members (most of us here) are the 2025 retirees or senior executives –The college seniors of the Class of 2005 are the 2025 mid-level members (our replacements) –The 2005 first-graders are the college seniors of 2020 – the entry level workforce in 2025 Will they choose aerospace? –The children born in 2005 are the college sophomores in 2025, looking to commit to their major field of study Will they have the option to choose aerospace? Compare society today and in 2025 – What will society need?

3. 12/1/2005 Page 3 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development The World in 2025 00501020302540 2005 6 billion people (1999); China & India largest 80% lives in Less Developed regions (60% in Asia) Urbanization crosses 50% (2007) Median age 26 years; Life expectancy ~65 AIDS is taking a toll in Sub-Saharan Africa 60+ 10%; 20% in Developed Countries 80+ is 22% of 65+ population US population is ~290 million 80% in metropolitan areas (50% in suburban areas) in 2000 Majority in South or West Median age is 35 years; largest age group is 40-50 (baby boomers) Life expectancy is 77 65+ 13%; 80+ 22% of 65+ population 2025 8 billion people (2028); China & India still the largest (still 60% in Asia) Africa on the rise (20% in 2050) ~85% in Less Developed regions; 90% by 2050 Urbanization reaches 61% by 2030; 81% in MDC, 57% in LDC, 50% in Asian urban areas Median age is 37 years; Life expectancy is ~70 60+ ~16%; ~27% in Developed Countries 80+ is 50% of 65+ population (2030) US population is ~340 million Median age 38 years; baby boomers are into 70s Life expectancy is ~85 65+ is 18% the twenty-first century is expected to be one of comparatively slower population growth than the previous century, and be characterized by declining fertility and the ageing of populations United Nations: The World at Six Billion, 1999

4. 12/1/2005 Page 4 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development 10 Most Populous Countries, 1950 - 2050 Asia dominates list through 2050; population starts shifting to Africa in 2030; 20% by 2050; 25% by 2100 Urbanization reaches 50% in 2007; most urban areas <500K 22 Megacities, 39 5M cities in 2015 Africa is the emerging market; also the emerging area of security concern Security issues –Population Density –Resource scarcity –Ethnic conflict –Urban combat Sources: UN Population Data Institute for Memetic Research

5. 12/1/2005 Page 5 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Population Ageing Population age increases; and number of children born declines Workforce replacement slows in MDC; more seniors relying on smaller workforce for economic benefits (Social Security, etc) US - ~6 million immigrants 2025 timeframe offsets some of the decline

6. 12/1/2005 Page 6 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development US Population Top 5 - CA; TX; NY; FL; IL; DC #50; Wyoming #51 in 2000 Male/Female 48%/51%; 2000 & 2025 2025: White 78%; Black 14%; Hispanic 18% (double 2000) Does our workforce match our diversity?

7. 12/1/2005 Page 7 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development US Population Ageing Population age increases 5-9 age group stays consistent around 6% 40-45 age group drops from 7.8% to 6% 65+ doubles Workforce replacement slows; more seniors relying on smaller workforce for economic benefits (Social Security, etc) US - ~6 million immigrants 2025 timeframe offsets some of the decline

8. 12/1/2005 Page 8 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development What will Society Need from Aerospace in 2025? Air Transportation to serve urban areas with populations <500K –Environmentally sound – noise and pollution decrease –Cost-effective – fuel efficiency, #passengers per plane Satellites to monitor Earth resources & Earth conditions –Resource (Food& Water) Security –Natural Event Security; Climate security ComSats and other telecom systems to extend information access Power/energy generation technologies to support demand ITAR issues will need to be addressed in light of probable need to outsource/offshore some activities, and the expected influx of immigrants Technology magnet programs in areas not presently served by aerospace to build interest among todays first-graders Asteroid monitoring for planetary defense Is space passenger travel/tourism still a fringe industry? –Will need to develop space habitats and off-world permanent living areas to relieve population Non-lethal weapons for urban combat

9. 12/1/2005 Page 9 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development Will they choose aerospace? NY Times article – science and math scores low among our competitor nations Aerospace commission report – Need motivating vision to attract/retain talent – Is the Vision for Space enough? Can not teach students, if dont have teachers interested in science and math topics, and able to teach them Interesting note: National Geography Bee won by home-schooled students –What are we missing from our public schools that parents feel compelled to home-school, or move to private school? Diversity of workforce –75% white, 51% women, 14% black; 18% Hispanic in 2025 –Look around the room – do we mirror our customer base? –Do we have programs to help minority children become aerospace professionals? Evaluate the ROI – what is the cost to establish education & professional development programs to attract young talent/retain mid-level talent? –What is the cost to do nothing? –Do we need to change our immigration concepts, and our ITAR concepts? Do we increase offshoring, or bring in more foreign workers?

10. 12/1/2005 Page 10 Engineering & Technology Management Group Engineering Technology Management Tracking the Constant of Change Management History Society Legal Aspects LogisticsSupply Chain Systems Engineering Economics Risk Technical Information Multidiscipline Design Product Development