1. Energy Group Khoa Nguyen Brian Masters Elena Jaimes Zach Walker Charise Frias

2. Part 1

3. Ethanol Biofuel  Ethanol is produced by breaking down plant matter into simple sugars and starches, then fermenting and distilling it into alcohol.  Commonly used as a 10% mixture in petroleum fuels to help produce a cleaner burning fuel.  Also used in E85 Flex Fuel vehicles at an 85% ethanol mixture to 15% petroleum.  13.9 billion gallons produced in 2011 According to the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA)  Government subsidies reaching $6 billion annually.

4. E85 and Ethanol enriched fuels  Benefits Renewable source, 6 months to grow and convert to ethanol. 10-30% lower vehicle emissions, decreased smog levels nearly 25% since 1990 Reduces fossil fuel imports. Supports Rural communities- creates jobs through ethanol production plants.

5. E85 and Ethanol enriched fuels  Disadvantages Greenhouse gas emission- end users experience less emissions but production emissions cancel out real gains. Land use - Significant land needed.. Cuts into land available for food production. No consumer MPG gain Energy intensive production- takes almost the same amount of energy to manufacture as it supplies. Population growth and climate change demand more food production, fighting the production of ethanol.

6. Current state analysis

7. Part 2

8. Sustainable Resource Use and Stock-and-Flow Models  E85 still creates greenhouse gas emissions – 85% ethanol, 15% gasoline  High net-energy Yields

10. Solutions  Alternative energy solutions: wind, solar, electric  Responses to Ethanol: ‘Green Gasoline’ Microalgae

11. Part 3

12. Causal chain diagram Impact: Environmenta l and Health Increasing oil consumption government Automobile industry Agricultural industry Risk to public health Local economy globalization technolog y Respiratory issue E85 related mishaps Increasing cancer rates technology Activists/lobbyists Economic growth Edge on competitors Activists/lobbyists Profit profit External environmental issue Agricultural technology

13. Part 4

14. No intervention “Business as usual”  If there was no intervention to our current state, then the following would occur: We continue with fossil fuels Reach peak oil New energy technologies will eventually diminish ethanol Negative environmental Impact

15. Worst case scenario  Increase in E85 Production  Negative Environmental Impact  Completely dependent on fossil fuels

16. Best case scenario  Electric cars only  Positive environmental Impact  Food crops used for food ONLY  Cellulosic ethanol Made from non food items such as switchgrass, wood chips and even the leaves and stalks of corn.

17. Vision  In the future, there will be a prohibition of fossil fuels/ E85 and dominant use of energy will be electric- based. The current government will be socialism, and they will fund electric energy for transportation and home use. Also, the prices for electric-based cars will be affordable for everyone and the land use for E85 production will be used strictly for food purposes. Gas stations supplying E85 will be replaced with charging stations/other alternatives.  Overall, our vision will result in preservation of the environment and biodiversity. Future generations will have a healthier and more sustainable world.

18. Part 5

19. Transition strategies  Paradigm Shift  Spread the Knowledge  Government Support  Laws and Regulations  Make Driving Electrical Beneficial  Adapt Cities  Ban Gas Powered Vehicles

20. Trade-offs and stakeholders  Pollution from development  Loss of Jobs  Change in Infrastructure  Gas Vehicles to Electric  Disposal Cost  Consumers  Drivers  Car and Gas Companies  Government  Farmers

21. Timetable 20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-2035 Full Budget implemented and capital acquired from government. Vehicles and charging stations begin production. Regulations change ethanol policy to lower output as electric car infrastructure increases. Further production of charging stations. Gas stations start to leave the market completely. Full ban of combustion engine use. New Government regulations and incentives for electric cars. New wave of electric cars and motors hit the market slowly taking over the market. Government funded program to dispose of the mass of combustion engine vehicles. Banning of combustion engine cars on the road and can only be used in certain industries. Research and education provided to increase the technology of electric cars/renewable energy. Food crops become for food only and not the production of ethanol.