1. The External Environment for Developing Countries April 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

2. Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury through Thomson/Datastream. U.S. interest rate developments suggest Fed actions are having effect USD-LIBOR and EURIBOR, 3 months, percent Treasury 10-yr USD-LIBORFed Funds, effective

3. “Green shoots” sprouting in the U.S. economy? Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. Third quarter 2008 Fourth quarter 2008 2009 yr to date Retail and IP, home sales, CPI and exports, ch% 3mma y/y

4. Industrial countries

5. Source: Thomson/Datastream. U.S. equity rally: running ahead of the data? Indexes: 100 on January 1, 2009 NASDAQ Dow Jones

6. U.S. retail sales bottom-out despite substantial job- and income losses retail sales growth (saar) [L]; change in employment (3mma) [R] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. Retail sales [L] Change in employment [R]

7. Sources: Department of Commerce, National Assn Realtors. Some progress in U.S. home sales...but foreclosures still boost supply sales of new and existing homes ch% 3mma y/y [L]; NAR AI [R] NAR Affordability index [R] New home sales [L] Existing home sales [L]

8. Japanese conditions remain weak corporate services prices, all-sector index [L], Tankan [R] Corporate services prices (ch% y/y) [L] All- sector index (ch% y/y) [L] Source: Japan Cabinet Office, BOJ. Tankan (Large Mfgr business conditions) [R]

9. Japan exports and production declines flattening– but well “underwater” goods export volume [L] and industrial output [R] ch% (saar) Mfgr output [right] Export volumes [left] Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

10. Japanese household sentiment on the economy continues to sour household expenditure growth (y/y) [L]; Tokyo confidence index [R] Source: Japan Cabinet Office. HH expenditure [left] Tokyo sentiment 3mma [right]

11. Source: Eurostat Euro Area Q4-GDP revised to decline of 6.2% on trade and investment growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports

12. European unemployment begins to pick up quickly on soft economy number of unemploymed (millions) [L], unemployment rate (%) [R] Source: Eurostat. Unemployment rate [R] # of unemployed [L]

13. German factory orders moving towards a bottom in February? factory orders, domestic and export, ch% saar Source: Bundesbank. Total domestic orders export orders

14. Industrial production

15. OECD industrial production down 34% in February (saar) industrial output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High-income OECD countries Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

16. Continued declines across emerging markets (EAP an exception) industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) East Asia South Asia Europe and Central Asia Latin America Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

17. NIEs and Thailand record positve monthly IP gains industrial production ch% (m/m seasonally adjusted) Hong Kong (SAR, China) Thailand Korea Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

18. International trade

19. Incidence of trade-related measures increases quickly during downturn Source: World Trade Organization. Episodes Countries 10-14 EU, India 7-9China, Indonesia 4-6Argentina, Russia, U.S. 1-3Brazil, Canada, Ecuador, Hong Kong (China), South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Paraguay, Philippines, Taiwan (China), Turkey,Ukraine, Vietnam

20. Source: World Bank, DECPG. Terms of trade impacts July 2008 to February 2009

21. U.S. trade deficit narrows by a full $10 billion during February balance on goods: oil- and non-oil, ($bn) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. Non-oil balance Oil balance

22. Oil prices

23. Crude oil prices rise on OPEC production cuts $/ bbl mb/d Oil price [L scale] OPEC Production [R] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

24. World Oil Consumption Growth (mb/d y/y) Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. OECD Non-OECD

25. U.S. crude oil stocks rise on weak demand M bbl 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

26. Non-oil commodity prices

27. Food prices decline in March on weak demand (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

28. Copper prices rebound on falling stocks $/ton‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

29. Consumption Growth (% y/y) AluminumCopperCrude Oil WorldChinaWorldChinaWorldChina 2002-06 average 7.519.93.09.62.09.1 200710.442.86.634.61.24.6 1H085.615.90.17.40.95.0 2H08-6.0-4.7-3.51.8-1.53.6 1Q09-20.3-10.4-17.60.4-3.7-3.5 Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

30. International Finance

31. Capital flows down by two-thirds from first-quarter 2008 levels Source: DECPG Finance Team.

32. Strong returns to EM equities in 2009 Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream * as of April 17th Total returns yr to date in local currency, % MSCI Developed MSCI EM MSCI BRIC EM BIG Developed HY bond

33. Volume of EM IPOs has come to a standstill since September 2008 capital raised ($bn) [L], number of deals [R] Source: Dealogic # of deals [R] Capital raised [L]

34. Currencies

35. Source: Thomson/Datastream. yen/U SD USD/Euro (inverse) Dollar re-consolidates against major partner currencies USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

36. Source: Thomson/Datastream. LIBOR 6-month interest rates at parity USD-LIBOR and EURIBOR, 6 months, percent EURIBOR USD-LIBOR

37. Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities down sharply vs. 2008 Source: U.S. Treasury... TICS data system. billions dollars First Qtr-2008 First Qtr-2009

38. The External Environment for Developing Countries April 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group