1. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB The Alpine Space Prospective Study Alpine Space Summit June 20th 2006, Stresa Thomas Bausch Martin Vanier

2. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB The research approach I phase II phase III phase Analysis A: Territorial trends in the Alpine area Analysis B: Territorial policies in the Alpine area Analysis C: The Alpine Space programme Substantial key issues Procedural key issues Strategic key players Immediate strategic projects Shared scenario Strategic Projects after 2006 Programme improvement after 2006

3. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 1 Analyses 1.1 Economic, social and territorial trends 1.2 Spatial policies in the Alpine area 1.3 The Alpine Space Interreg IIIB programme 2 Findings 2.1 Substantive key issues 2.2 Procedural key issues 2.3 Key actors 3 Proposals 3.1 Shared scenarios for the Alpine territory 3.2 Proposals for improving cooperation after 2006 3.3 Potential strategic projects Structure of the study

4. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area territorial =trends with a longer lasting trends influence to a spatial (sustainable) development main fields of trend-analysis:  natural resources and biodiversity  economy  social and cultural welfare (including R&D) Territorial trend definition

5. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 1. Territorial trends in the Alpine area scan of sources statistical reports, EU documents, results of SPESP, ESPON, OECD, EEA and other EU agencies potential trends fields of territorial development and described trends trends with high impact to the Alpine Space experts survey main alpine trends detail analysis to each territorial type Research approach

6. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 34 trends in 4 main groups each group 3-6 fields of territorial development B: economy A: natural resources and biodiversity C: cultural and social affairs D: spatial development 1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area Trendlist extracted from sources B: economy accessibility9: growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge 10: knowledge economy and society are progressing 11: economic restructuring is expected to accelerate 12: increasing administration costs transportation13: increase of transportation volume, road growth, rail decline 14: growing impact of transportation on the environment energy15: rising energy consumption state and society 16: declining State aid and funding 17: continuing direct public support to SMEs agriculture18: growing competition in agriculture tourism19: dynamic competition / concentration in the tourism sector 20: growth of city and cultural tourism

7. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area Trendanalysis based on expert survey (1)

8. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 1:loss of habitats and biodiversity 2: increasing environmental damages by transport 3: variety of landscapes endangered 5: dynamic increase of natural hazards 9: growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge 13:increase of transportation volume, road growth, rail decline 14:growing impact of trans- portation on the environment 19:dynamic competition / concentration in the tourism sector 22:overaging population 1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area Trendanalysis based on expert survey (2)

9. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB Definition top-trends: strong territorial impact (below 1,4), over average dynamic (below 1,92) and over average duration (below 1,7) 1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area Alpine Space top trends top territorial trends entire Alpine space impact to alpine space trend no. trend short description 1,005dynamic increase of natural hazards 1,101loss of habitats and biodiversity 1,203variety of landscapes endangered 1,204increasing pressure on natural resources and natural heritage 1,209growing importance of accessibility to infrastructure and knowledge 1,3022overaging population 1,4028growing interest in higher education, stronger competition between universities 1,4029emerging opportunities for European cities as R&D locations A: natural resources and biodiversity B: economy C: Culture and social welfare D: spatial development

10. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB A: natural resources and biodiversity B: economy C: Culture and social welfare D: spatial development 1 Territorial trends in the Alpine area Trends with specific impact to area types

11. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB Proposals Six prospective visions about a shared scenario for the Alpine territory Potential strategic projects

12. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 1. Alpine core and the MEGAs Metropolisation, attractiveness, global sustainability, protection, city/mountain, solidarity, international tourism…

13. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 2. Regional diversity: puzzle and « coopetition » « coopetition » (mix of cooperation and competition), territorial systems, multi-level governance, clusters, cultural partnerships, regional heritage, local development

14. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 3. North-South mediation Transit routes, governmental cooperation, infrastructures, impacts, ports and airports, technological risks

15. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 4. Networks, corridors, connecting elements Polycentrism, distribution, knowledge networks, mobility management

16. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 5. Openness and enlargement River basin, openness, enlargement, « little Europes », solidarity, Alpine experience

17. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB 6. Positionning: we and the others Globalisation, international tourism, alpine amenities, global competition, image, joint promotion -------------------------- Six visions to organise the debate about strategic orientations  Visions 1, 2, 3: internal regulation and management of alpine diversity  Visions 4, 5, 6: integration in a wider global perspective and preservation of it specificity Towards a permanent forum on the Alpine Space scenarios

18. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB Ideas for potential strategic projects (2007-2013) Project ideas connected with preparation and implementation of the Alpine Space programme Alpine Space 2020 Preparatory projects (e.g. Climate Change in the Alps) Synthesis and dissemination projects Projects accompanying programme implementation --- Project ideas connected with strategic key issues Metropolitain / urban network of the Alpine Space Rural-urban relations at work Regional development observatory Territorial effects of « brain drain » « Destination Alpine Space » Sustainable tourism in the Alpine Space Mobility chain in the Alpine Space Public passenger transport in the Alpine Space ---

19. Alpine Space Prospective Study T. Bausch (D) T. Dax (A) U. Janin Rivolin (I) F. Parvex (CH) S. Praper (SLO) M. Vanier (F) © 2005-2006 INTERREG IIIB Full report and executive summary please refer to programme WEB-site