1. NAPPFAST: A tool for risk analysis of exotic plant pests Roger Magarey Presented at the 3 rd Annual Meeting of Midwest Weather Working Group Charlotte Convention Center, Charlotte, NC Friday, August 6, 2010

2. Dan Borchert, APHIS – modeling Jessica Engle, NCSU – modeling Joe Russo, ZedX - cyberinfrastructure Contributors APHIS-PPQ CAPS USDA Farm Bill Section 10201 CSREES/NIFA NRI/AFRI

3. 3 NAPPFAST System Overview Internet-based Pest Prediction System Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection, or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate databases Produce geo-referenced output maps Designed to assist pest survey detection efforts: predict when and where

4. What models are used to make risk maps/ products in NAPPFAST? What types of weather-based risk products are available? How can we get products to users?

5. 5 NAPPFAST What models are used to make risk maps/products in NAPPFAST? –Degree Day –Infection –Generic –Climate matching –Pathway risk models

6. 6 P. japonica general information Univoltine- one generation per year Overwinters typically as a third instar larvae

10. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Insect Stage (5-08 – 5-14) Map Updated: 7/27/2010

11. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Adult beetles begin to emerge in central NC 3 rd week in May (Fleming 1972) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Insect Stage (5-15 – 5-21) Map Updated: 7/27/2010

12. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972) Insect Stage (5-22 – 5-31) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

13. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Mountainous Eastern TN beetles appear first week of June (Fleming 1972) Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972) Insect Stage (6-01 – 6-07) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

14. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Adult beetles begin to emerge in Maryland & Delaware mid June (Fleming 1972) Insect Stage (6-08 – 6-14) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

15. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Adult beetles begin to emerge in Southern NJ and Southeastern PA in 3 rd week of June (Fleming 1972) Insect Stage (6-15 – 6-21) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

16. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Emergence in mountainous regions of NJ and PA 1-2 weeks later (Fleming 1972) Emergence in Southeastern NY, CT, RI and Southern MA in last week of June (Fleming 1972) Insect Stage (6-22 – 6-30) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

17. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 18 24 30 Emergence begins in Southern NH and VT in first week of July (Fleming 1972) Insect Stage (7-01 – 7-07) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

18. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 18 24 30 Insect Stage (7-08 – 7-14) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

19. Frequency of Occurrence (30year) 0 6 6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 Insect Stage (7-15 – 7-21) Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult ’ Map Updated: 7/27/2010

20. 20 Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture Pathogen infection model

21. 21 Pathogen Infection Parameters T min = Min. temperature for infection, o C, T max = Max. temperature for infection, o C, T opt = Opt. temperature for infection, o C, W min = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h Parameters established in laboratory studies

22. 22 Citrus black spot, Guignardia citricarpa CBS is primarily a disease of fruit (Kotzé, 2000), although leaves and stems are also infected (CABI, 2002). All commercially grown Citrus spp. are susceptible to CBS, with the exception of sour orange (C. aurantium L.) and its hybrids.

23. SUBJECT: Confirmation of Citrus Black Spot (Guignardia citricapra) in Florida TO: STATE AND TERRITORY AGRICULTURAL REGULATORY OFFICIALS On April 7, 2010, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) confirmed the identification of Citrus Black Spot (Guignardia citricapra; CBS) on citrus fruit from Collier County, Florida. The CBS- infected fruit samples were collected from commercial Valencia orange groves. This is the first confirmation of CBS in the United States. Breaking News

24. 24 Model Parameters In Florida, the months of April, May and June represent the first three months after fruit set and the period of greatest fruit susceptibility (Mosser and Aerts, 2007; Kotze, 1981). We chose to use a more extensive 5 month window of susceptibility.

25. 25

28. Guignardia citricarpa

29. Climate Databases

31. What models are used to make risk maps/ products in NAPPFAST? What types of risk products are available? How can we get products to users?

32. Interpretation Subject matter experts Government Regulatory tools Regulatory officials UniversityIndustry Analysis SalesdataGPDD PhytosanitaryForeign cargo Data Nth American Station Global 32k grid SQL Data Integration Multiple systems Dissemination Stakeholders/Users Industry PublicPolicy Modified from Magarey et al. Bioscience 2009 v59 p 880 GBIF GIS Day degree Pathway Climate matching Venn InfectionEmpirical Risk analysts/ Researcher

33. Generic Cyberinfrastructure Interface Confidential Slide courtesy Joe Russo, Copyright © 2009 ZedX Inc. Navigation Map Data Tree Action Bar Role 2 Tool Details Role 1Admin Tools Tool Calendar Product Tree (Collapsible)

34. NAPPFAST– Exotic Pest Targeting Tool Planning Risk Maps for Helicoverpa armigera

35. NAPPFAST– Exotic Pest Targeting Tool Weekly Phenology Maps for Cactoblastis cactorum

36. Conclusions NAPPFAST Modeling tools include day degree models, infection models, empirical and climate matching NAPPFAST is an emerging cyberinfrastructure for exotic pest risk analysis and modeling. NAPPFAST has spatial products that include planning risk maps, phenology models and aerial imagery. More information see www.nappfast.org